⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

Its fascinating really. I still will be very very surprised if all models are this correct for track and strength and it hasnt even formed yet. Then again can they be all wrong!

The New Year's Day Storm 2025….

My great great grandfather's house was blown down on 6/7 January 1839. Himself and his wife had 7 children, 3 born in that house and 4 in the new house they built on the land they rented, half a mile away.

He must have been a hardy man, born 1799, died Christmas Day 1888, age 89. The death cert states, old age. Himself and his wife, who lived to 84, reared 7 children through the famine years. None died, all lived to adulthood. How you raise 7 children on top of a hill with 44 acres of rushes, I don't know.

I checked Yr and its not showing extreme weather for me N monaghan / South Fermanagh

also we didn't have any snow , did the rest of the country ??

i'm not all that bad.

Unfortunately, the 00z ICON, Arpege , GEM and GFS have not downgraded this storm as I hoped they might. The rapid development on Thursday is incredible. The system drops 50 millibars in 24 hours, which very much puts it in the category of a 'weather bomb'

One thing I think is pretty obvious is that most people in Ireland are probably not fully prepared for what such a powerful storm entails and what practical measures they should be taking. What we typically see is just mass panic buying of petrol, food and toilet paper (which, by the way, will happen during Thursday afternoon/evening for anyone thinking of doing a shop) but we don’t see actual awareness campaigns around securing outdoor furniture, locking windows, having candles and torches, medicine, bottled water, fire sources etc. It is expected that storms such as these will increase in frequency and probably intensity so it is high time that the Irish people get serious about them!

For now, we will have the usual panic buying of petrol, bread and toilet paper Thursday afternoon and evening. If anyone genuinely needs some items or thinks their vulnerable neighbours will need medicines or food etc, get it for them today or by Thursday morning!

I've had a look at all the overnight models and very little change. If anything continues to intensify and all parts at high risk. The South looks really bad now too. The system moves along quickly though so red warnings will likely only last 4/5 hours I guess....There might be a general warning though not to go out afterwards not sure. It will be well gone from the South at midday…

New Taoiseach today, he's going to have busy couple of days...

Here it is at 48hrs, winding up. I see nothing only further intensifying on the overnights....

Latest Harmonie wind gust and average speeds guarantee widespread power outage and damage. This will be stronger than Darragh. Probably more like Dec 97 or Feb 88 storms, so get your devices charged and be ready for a day or two off grid.... More for some unfortunately.

13/10

Needs to be stressed also that peak winds will arrive before sunrise on Friday on the west coast, 0400h-0500h will see the strongest gusts there, add 1-3 hrs going east across the island. Although most guidance shows moderating winds by early afternoon, we've often been noticing that winds drop off less rapidly in the wake of cyclones, takes a few extra hours for the signal of pressure gradient relaxation to be received by the boundary layer. Parcels of air moving at very high speeds are still not able to keep up to rapidly moving pressure grids, so momentum keeps some of the velocity in place (also daytime heating mixes the stronger gusts down more efficiently).

Still a bit of hope for improvements. I know Gonzo was asking to reverse normal uses of words "upgrade" and "downgrade" in consideration of their meanings for impacts, but I suspect the habit of saying "upgrade" for greater intensity will continue in the thread — perhaps we could at least say "upgraded storm intensity" … if some start using the terms for opposite meanings, it will lead to endless extra posts with questions about "do you mean … ..." and I suspect this thread will be very busy and visited by a lot of occasional or first-time boards readers.

Basically this looks like a 4-6 hour extreme wind event except in parts of the southeast which may escape with scattered less severe (dare I say minor) damage. Dublin region looks a bit marginal for severe impacts but they could very well be included (some models say yes, 130-140 km/hr gusts across central Ireland).

Is there any chance of a last minute reprieve? I don't see any really hopeful signs (for instance, NYC wx office at 00z released balloon and found near-record westerly winds at jet stream altitude) but we cannot categorically say at this stage that a high impact event is "locked in" — the south coast and east coast have better chances of at least avoiding major damage.

The second storm incoming looks like being moderate for wind impacts and will give a cold rainfall of 20-40 mm lasting from late Sunday to early Tuesday, the main relevance is that it will slow down recovery after relatively favorable conditions earlier Sunday. Saturday looks quite cold in a brisk westerly wind that will likely lay down some snow on northern hills.

Definitely looks like the most powerful storm in recent times anyway. Level of disruption will depend on wind direction at the airports, crosswinds etc.

Supposed to be returning from the UK myself on Friday evening on an AerLingus ATR so that'll be interesting if it does fly. Booked a backup flight for Saturday in the event that rebooking with EI to Saturday proves difficult post significant disruption Friday morning.