Boards weather forecast contest for January 2025

After first week …

IMT _ 1.5 C (4.0 below normal)

MAX _ not tracked yet

MIN _ -5.1, and -7 C early 9 Dec (a report will appear on 10 Dec)

PRC _ 155% of normal

SUN _ 161% of normal

Low max _ 0.4, -2.0 on 8 Dec

Forecasts of low max in order

(went cold to warm as scoring is likely to go closer in that direction)

Table also indicates low min, not as certain it will be scored as closely as low max, will know better after tomorrow (not to say later Jan cannot beat this spell) …

FORECASTER ___________ MIN _ low Max

Joe Public _____________ -11.4 __ -4.4

M.T. Cranium ___________-12.5 __ -3.7

JCXBXC_____ (-8) ______ -12.0 __ -3.5

esposito ______________ -10.9 __ -3.4

Cornerstonelad _________-11.0 __ -3.0

adam062410 _(-7) ______-10.3 __ -2.7

Gonzo _________________-8.2 __ -2.5

waterways _____________ -5.8 __ -2.2

Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ -9.7 __ -2.0

MrSkinner _____________ -7.2 __ -2.0

Dasa29 ________________-5.5 __ -2.0

«« _____________________-7 __ -2.0 (to 9 Dec)

200motels ____________ -10.5 __ -1.8

Dacogawa _____________ -7.7 __ -1.8

Icicle2025 _____________-10.6 __ -1.7

____Con Sensus _________-8.0 __ -1.7

Jpmarn _______________ -9.5 __ -1.5

Kindred Spirit __________ -7.7 __ -1.5

Mr stonewall ____________-8.3 __ -1.4

DOCARCH _____________ -6.6 __ -1.2

sryanbruen ____________ -7.5 __ -1.1

Bsal __________________ -7.0 __ -1.0

Tae laidir ______________ -6.6 __ -1.0

Appledrop _____________ -8.0 __ -0.5

Artane2002 ____________ -7.1 __ -0.5

WolfeEire ______________ -8.0 __ -0.1

Sunflower3 ____________ -8.1 ___ 0.0

____ NormaL ___________-7.5 ___ 0.8

john mac ______________-7.3 ___ 1.3

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Adam, your only option is to go best 10/11 starting in Feb, as we already reached the expiry time for penalties.

Possibly two years back, Rameire placed a forecast about this late and I scored it, giving it the minimum net score of 10 after late penalty. As it turned out, raw score was near average and then I realized going into category scoring, that is where there would be a contest integrity problem for a very late entry, as category scoring is pre-penalty. It didn't end up becoming an issue in that case but this month has already revealed a few details that would produce an unfair advantage, so, I think I will amend the very late entry rule I improvised for Rameire, and close entries on 5th (when the penalty clock reaches 100). This won't change your chances for doing well in best 10 of 11 (or 12) as this month would be a toss anyway.

Apologies, adam240610, you apparently posted a forecast I never saw, probably after I gathered forecasts so when I posted the table, I didn't spot your forecast. Ignore the post I made about very late forecasts, I thought you were asking what penalty you would have if you posted yesterday … so I will just re-post table of forecasts and edit in your forecast as well as JCX BXC … I think it would be 7 points late penalty.

IMT after 8 days was 0.8 C, will likely reach its min (for Jan?) today, will report on it tomorrow.

Yesterday's average was -1.6 C, so IMT will be near 0.5 C to 9 Jan.

If in fact low MIN and low Max are settled, table reveals points to be awarded for bonus, and raw scores for MIN (a decision about minimum progression scoring boost will be made later …

FORECASTER ___________ MIN _ raw score __ low Max _ score

Joe Public _____________ -11.4 _ 00 ______ -4.4 __ 2

M.T. Cranium ___________-12.5 _ 00 ______ -3.7 __ 2

JCXBXC_____ (-8) ______ -12.0 _ 00 ______ -3.5 __ 3

esposito ______________ -10.9 _ 00 ______ -3.4 __ 3

Cornerstonelad _________-11.0 _ 00 ______ -3.0 __ 4

adam062410 _(-7) ______-10.3 _ 00 ______ -2.7 __ 6

Gonzo _________________-8.2 _ 14 ______ -2.5 __ 7

waterways _____________ -5.8 _ 02 ______ -2.2 __ 9

Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ -9.7 _ 00 ______ -2.0 __10

MrSkinner _____________ -7.2 _ 16 ______ -2.0 __10

Dasa29 ________________-5.5 _ 00 ______ -2.0 __10

200motels ____________ -10.5 _ 00 ______ -1.8 __ 9

Dacogawa _____________ -7.7 _ 19 ______ -1.8 __ 9

Icicle2025 _____________-10.6 _ 00 ______ -1.7 __ 8

____Con Sensus _________-8.0 _ 16 ______ -1.7 __ 8

Jpmarn _______________ -9.5 _ 01 ______ -1.5 __ 7

Kindred Spirit __________ -7.7 _ 19 ______ -1.5 __ 7

Mr stonewall ____________-8.3 _ 13 ______-1.4 __ 6

DOCARCH _____________ -6.6 _ 10 ______ -1.2 __ 5

sryanbruen ____________ -7.5 _ 19 ______ -1.1 __ 5

Bsal __________________ -7.0 _ 14 ______ -1.0 __ 4

Tae laidir ______________ -6.6 _ 10 ______ -1.0 __ 4

Appledrop _____________ -8.0 _ 16 ______ -0.5 __ 3

Artane2002 ____________ -7.1 _ 15 ______ -0.5 __ 3

WolfeEire ______________ -8.0 _ 16 ______ -0.1 __ 2

Sunflower3 ____________ -8.1 _ 15 _______ 0.0 __ 2

____ NormaL ___________-7.5 _ 19 _______ 0.8 __ 1

john mac ______________-7.3 _ 17 _______ 1.3 __ 1

========================

At most, there would be 1-2 pt boosts as scoring is generally in a good range for over half of the forecasts.

After four weeks …

IMT _ 4.6 (0.6 below normal) _ fourth week average 5.2 (0.0 departure from normal)

MAX _ 14.2

MIN _ -7.6

PRC _ 109% of normal _ fourth week average 217%

SUN _ 111% of normal _ fourth week average 86%

Low max _ -2.0 on 8 Jan (scored in a previous post)

Preliminary scoring for Jan 2025 based on above (PRC 103% SUN 110%)

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Low max _ TOTAL

Artane2002 ____________ 12 _ 16 _ 16 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 68

john mac ______________ 17 _ 02 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 01 _____ 62

Tae laidir ______________ 17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 67

NormaL _______________ 20 _ 12 _ 20 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 01 _____ 75

MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 84

Sunflower3 ____________ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 76

sryanbruen ____________ 22 _ 20 _ 20 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 83

DOCARCH _____________ 22 _ 20 _ 11 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 77

Kindred Spirit __________ 22 _ 19 _ 20 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 86

Dacogawa _____________ 23 _ 16 _ 20 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 91

Appledrop _____________ 23 _ 18 _ 17 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 76

Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 13 _ 02 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 69

Bsal __________________24 _ 08 _ 15 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 68

waterways _____________25 _ 07 _ 03 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 67

____Con Sensus ________ 25 _ 19 _ 17 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 90

Mr stonewall ___________ 25 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 81

WolfeEire ______________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 02 _____ 75

Dasa29 _______________ 24 _ 18 _ 01 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 72

Gonzo ________________ 22 _ 17 _ 15 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 75

Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 20 _ 11 _ 01 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 10 _63-2=61

Icicle2025 _____________ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 58

Cornerstonelad _________ 19 _ 08 _ 00 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 43

esposito _______________17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 _____ 41

200motels _____________13 _ 14 _ 01 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 50

M.T. Cranium ___________12 _ 18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 02 _____ 43

Adam240610____ (-7) ___ 12 _ 08 _ 01 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 06 _36-7=29

JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 03 _41-8 =33

Joe Public _____________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 28

note: PRC scores +1 to allow 01 for better (> -10.6) zero scores (also -5.5)

======================== [] ================

(forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max

Artane2002 ____________5.9 _ 14.6 _ -7.1 _ 100 _ 095 ___-0.5

john mac ______________5.4 _ 16.0 _ -7.3 _ 106 _ 108 ___ 1.3

Tae laidir ______________5.4 _ 13.9 _ -6.6 _ 111 _ 092 ___-1.0

NormaL _______________5.1 _ 15.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.8

MrSkinner _____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.2 _ 091 _ 104 ___-2.0

Sunflower3 ____________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -8.1 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 0.0

sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 080 _ 105 ___-1.1

DOCARCH _____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -6.6 _ 095 _ 097 ___-1.2

Kindred Spirit __________ 4.9 _ 14.1 _ -7.7 _ 088 _ 100 ___-1.5

Dacogawa _____________ 4.8 _ 14.6 _ -7.7 _ 096 _ 110 ___-1.8

Appledrop _____________ 4.8 _ 14.0 _ -8.0 _ 123 _ 095 ___-0.5

Jpmarn _______________ 4.7 _ 13.5 _ -9.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___-1.5

Bsal __________________4.7 _ 13.0 _ -7.0 _ 088 _ 095 ___-1.0

waterways _____________4.6 _ 15.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 109 ___-2.2

____Con Sensus ________ 4.6 _ 14.1 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___-1.7

Mr stonewall ___________ 4.6 _ 14.3 _ -8.3 _ 082 _ 115 ___-1.4

WolfeEire ______________4.5 _ 14.7 _ -8.0 _ 080 _ 109 ___-0.1

Dasa29 _______________ 4.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___-2.0

Gonzo ________________ 4.3 _ 14.5 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 123 ___-2.5

Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 4.1 _ 13.3 _ -9.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___-2.0

Icicle2025 _____________ 4.1 _ 13.1 _-10.6 _ 090 _ 115 ___-1.7

Cornerstonelad _________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-11.0 _ 075 _ 128 ___-3.0

esposito _______________3.8 _ 13.2 _-10.9 _ 074 _ 130 ___-3.4

200motels _____________3.4 _ 14.8 _-10.5 _ 077 _ 125 ___-1.8

M.T. Cranium ___________3.3 _ 14.0 _-12.5 _ 073 _ 129 ___-3.7

Adam240610____ (-7) ___3.3 _ 13.0 _-10.3 _ 073 _ 139 ___-2.7

JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 3.2 _ 13.6 _-12.0 _ 070 _ 115 ___-3.5

Joe Public _____________ 2.8 _ 12.4 _-11.4 _ 087 _ 124 ___-4.4

======================== [] ================

revised to include two late forecasts not in table, Con Sensus adjusted also.

As 1-2 Feb a weekend, validation will be late (4 Feb)

will note any adj to scoring known on 1st

… several very good scores … table will eventually be posted in scoring ranks …

Okay, scores are now corrected for -7.6, all raw scores > 0 are +1 and better zero scores are now 01.

Table will be adj if necessary on 1st and again on 4 Feb.

not seeing Jan 2025 wx statement yet, will edit following if necessary … one of the higher scoring contests.

 Final scoring for Jan 2025

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Low max _ TOTAL

est values _____________ 4.6 _14.2 -7.6 103 110 ___ -2.0

Dacogawa _____________ 23 _ 16 _ 20 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 91

____Con Sensus ________ 25 _ 19 _ 17 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 90

Kindred Spirit __________ 22 _ 19 _ 20 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 86

MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 84

sryanbruen ____________ 22 _ 20 _ 20 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 83

Mr stonewall ___________ 25 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 81

DOCARCH _____________ 22 _ 20 _ 11 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 77

Sunflower3 ____________ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 76

Appledrop _____________ 23 _ 18 _ 17 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 76

____ NormaL __________ 20 _ 12 _ 20 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 01 _____ 75

WolfeEire ______________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 02 _____ 75

Gonzo ________________ 22 _ 17 _ 15 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 75

Dasa29 _______________ 24 _ 18 _ 01 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 72

Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 13 _ 02 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 69

Bsal __________________24 _ 08 _ 15 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 68

Artane2002 ____________12 _ 16 _ 16 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 68

Tae laidir ______________17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 67

waterways _____________25 _ 07 _ 03 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 67

john mac ______________17 _ 02 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 01 _____ 62

Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 20 _ 11 _ 01 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 10 _63-2=61

Icicle2025 _____________ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 58

200motels _____________13 _ 14 _ 01 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 50

Cornerstonelad _________ 19 _ 08 _ 00 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 43

M.T. Cranium ___________12 _ 18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 02 _____ 43

esposito _______________17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 _____ 41

JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 03 _41-8 =33

Adam240610____ (-7) ___ 12 _ 08 _ 01 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 06 _36-7=29

Joe Public _____________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 28

note: PRC raw scores +1 to allow 01 for better (> -10.6) zero raw scores (also -5.5)

======================== [] ================

(forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max

Artane2002 ____________5.9 _ 14.6 _ -7.1 _ 100 _ 095 ___-0.5

john mac ______________5.4 _ 16.0 _ -7.3 _ 106 _ 108 ___ 1.3

Tae laidir ______________5.4 _ 13.9 _ -6.6 _ 111 _ 092 ___-1.0

NormaL _______________5.1 _ 15.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.8

MrSkinner _____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.2 _ 091 _ 104 ___-2.0

Sunflower3 ____________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -8.1 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 0.0

sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 080 _ 105 ___-1.1

DOCARCH _____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -6.6 _ 095 _ 097 ___-1.2

Kindred Spirit __________ 4.9 _ 14.1 _ -7.7 _ 088 _ 100 ___-1.5

Dacogawa _____________ 4.8 _ 14.6 _ -7.7 _ 096 _ 110 ___-1.8

Appledrop _____________ 4.8 _ 14.0 _ -8.0 _ 123 _ 095 ___-0.5

Jpmarn _______________ 4.7 _ 13.5 _ -9.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___-1.5

Bsal __________________4.7 _ 13.0 _ -7.0 _ 088 _ 095 ___-1.0

waterways _____________4.6 _ 15.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 109 ___-2.2

____Con Sensus ________ 4.6 _ 14.1 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___-1.7

Mr stonewall ___________ 4.6 _ 14.3 _ -8.3 _ 082 _ 115 ___-1.4

WolfeEire ______________4.5 _ 14.7 _ -8.0 _ 080 _ 109 ___-0.1

Dasa29 _______________ 4.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___-2.0

Gonzo ________________ 4.3 _ 14.5 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 123 ___-2.5

Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 4.1 _ 13.3 _ -9.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___-2.0

Icicle2025 _____________ 4.1 _ 13.1 _-10.6 _ 090 _ 115 ___-1.7

Cornerstonelad _________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-11.0 _ 075 _ 128 ___-3.0

esposito _______________3.8 _ 13.2 _-10.9 _ 074 _ 130 ___-3.4

200motels _____________3.4 _ 14.8 _-10.5 _ 077 _ 125 ___-1.8

M.T. Cranium ___________3.3 _ 14.0 _-12.5 _ 073 _ 129 ___-3.7

Adam240610____ (-7) ___3.3 _ 13.0 _-10.3 _ 073 _ 139 ___-2.7

JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 3.2 _ 13.6 _-12.0 _ 070 _ 115 ___-3.5

Joe Public _____________ 2.8 _ 12.4 _-11.4 _ 087 _ 124 ___-4.4

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I worked out that 3rd was a bank holiday so we won't be seeing the new climate summary until tomorrow. Will have to wait another day.