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Boards weather forecast contest for January 2025

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks …

    IMT _ 4.6 (0.6 below normal) _ fourth week average 5.2 (0.0 departure from normal)

    MAX _ 14.2

    MIN _ -7.6

    PRC _ 109% of normal _ fourth week average 217%

    SUN _ 111% of normal _ fourth week average 86%

    Low max _ -2.0 on 8 Jan (scored in a previous post)

    Preliminary scoring for Jan 2025 based on above (PRC 103% SUN 110%)

    FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Low max _ TOTAL

    Artane2002 ____________ 12 _ 16 _ 16 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 68

    john mac ______________ 17 _ 02 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 01 _____ 62

    Tae laidir ______________ 17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 67

    NormaL _______________ 20 _ 12 _ 20 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 01 _____ 75

    MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 84

    Sunflower3 ____________ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 76

    sryanbruen ____________ 22 _ 20 _ 20 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 83

    DOCARCH _____________ 22 _ 20 _ 11 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 77

    Kindred Spirit __________ 22 _ 19 _ 20 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 86

    Dacogawa _____________ 23 _ 16 _ 20 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 91

    Appledrop _____________ 23 _ 18 _ 17 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 76

    Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 13 _ 02 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 69

    Bsal __________________24 _ 08 _ 15 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 68

    waterways _____________25 _ 07 _ 03 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 67

    ____Con Sensus ________ 25 _ 19 _ 17 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 90

    Mr stonewall ___________ 25 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 81

    WolfeEire ______________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 02 _____ 75

    Dasa29 _______________ 24 _ 18 _ 01 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 72

    Gonzo ________________ 22 _ 17 _ 15 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 75

    Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 20 _ 11 _ 01 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 10 _63-2=61

    Icicle2025 _____________ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 58

    Cornerstonelad _________ 19 _ 08 _ 00 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 43

    esposito _______________17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 _____ 41

    200motels _____________13 _ 14 _ 01 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 50

    M.T. Cranium ___________12 _ 18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 02 _____ 43

    Adam240610____ (-7) ___ 12 _ 08 _ 01 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 06 _36-7=29

    JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 03 _41-8 =33

    Joe Public _____________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 28

    note: PRC scores +1 to allow 01 for better (> -10.6) zero scores (also -5.5)

    ======================== [] ================

    (forecasts)

    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max

    Artane2002 ____________5.9 _ 14.6 _ -7.1 _ 100 _ 095 ___-0.5

    john mac ______________5.4 _ 16.0 _ -7.3 _ 106 _ 108 ___ 1.3

    Tae laidir ______________5.4 _ 13.9 _ -6.6 _ 111 _ 092 ___-1.0

    NormaL _______________5.1 _ 15.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.8

    MrSkinner _____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.2 _ 091 _ 104 ___-2.0

    Sunflower3 ____________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -8.1 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 0.0

    sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 080 _ 105 ___-1.1

    DOCARCH _____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -6.6 _ 095 _ 097 ___-1.2

    Kindred Spirit __________ 4.9 _ 14.1 _ -7.7 _ 088 _ 100 ___-1.5

    Dacogawa _____________ 4.8 _ 14.6 _ -7.7 _ 096 _ 110 ___-1.8

    Appledrop _____________ 4.8 _ 14.0 _ -8.0 _ 123 _ 095 ___-0.5

    Jpmarn _______________ 4.7 _ 13.5 _ -9.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___-1.5

    Bsal __________________4.7 _ 13.0 _ -7.0 _ 088 _ 095 ___-1.0

    waterways _____________4.6 _ 15.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 109 ___-2.2

    ____Con Sensus ________ 4.6 _ 14.1 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___-1.7

    Mr stonewall ___________ 4.6 _ 14.3 _ -8.3 _ 082 _ 115 ___-1.4

    WolfeEire ______________4.5 _ 14.7 _ -8.0 _ 080 _ 109 ___-0.1

    Dasa29 _______________ 4.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___-2.0

    Gonzo ________________ 4.3 _ 14.5 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 123 ___-2.5

    Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 4.1 _ 13.3 _ -9.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___-2.0

    Icicle2025 _____________ 4.1 _ 13.1 _-10.6 _ 090 _ 115 ___-1.7

    Cornerstonelad _________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-11.0 _ 075 _ 128 ___-3.0

    esposito _______________3.8 _ 13.2 _-10.9 _ 074 _ 130 ___-3.4

    200motels _____________3.4 _ 14.8 _-10.5 _ 077 _ 125 ___-1.8

    M.T. Cranium ___________3.3 _ 14.0 _-12.5 _ 073 _ 129 ___-3.7

    Adam240610____ (-7) ___3.3 _ 13.0 _-10.3 _ 073 _ 139 ___-2.7

    JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 3.2 _ 13.6 _-12.0 _ 070 _ 115 ___-3.5

    Joe Public _____________ 2.8 _ 12.4 _-11.4 _ 087 _ 124 ___-4.4

    ======================== [] ================

    revised to include two late forecasts not in table, Con Sensus adjusted also.

    As 1-2 Feb a weekend, validation will be late (4 Feb)

    will note any adj to scoring known on 1st

    … several very good scores … table will eventually be posted in scoring ranks …

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,361 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T the scores are not correct for Min, it was low of -7.6 not -6.8.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay, scores are now corrected for -7.6, all raw scores > 0 are +1 and better zero scores are now 01.

    Table will be adj if necessary on 1st and again on 4 Feb.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT was in fact 4.6, and PRC estimate is probably going to be close, SUN is likely 5 to 10% higher than my scoring estimate, but I will wait until I can verify on 4th to adjust scoring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    not seeing Jan 2025 wx statement yet, will edit following if necessary … one of the higher scoring contests.

     Final scoring for Jan 2025

    FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Low max _ TOTAL

    est values _____________ 4.6 _14.2 -7.6 103 110 ___ -2.0

    Dacogawa _____________ 23 _ 16 _ 20 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 91

    ____Con Sensus ________ 25 _ 19 _ 17 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 90

    Kindred Spirit __________ 22 _ 19 _ 20 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 07 _____ 86

    MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 10 _____ 84

    sryanbruen ____________ 22 _ 20 _ 20 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 83

    Mr stonewall ___________ 25 _ 19 _ 14 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 81

    DOCARCH _____________ 22 _ 20 _ 11 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 77

    Sunflower3 ____________ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 76

    Appledrop _____________ 23 _ 18 _ 17 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 76

    ____ NormaL __________ 20 _ 12 _ 20 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 01 _____ 75

    WolfeEire ______________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 02 _____ 75

    Gonzo ________________ 22 _ 17 _ 15 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 75

    Dasa29 _______________ 24 _ 18 _ 01 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 72

    Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 13 _ 02 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 69

    Bsal __________________24 _ 08 _ 15 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 04 _____ 68

    Artane2002 ____________12 _ 16 _ 16 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 03 _____ 68

    Tae laidir ______________17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 67

    waterways _____________25 _ 07 _ 03 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 09 _____ 67

    john mac ______________17 _ 02 _ 18 _ 14 _ 10 ___ 01 _____ 62

    Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 20 _ 11 _ 01 _ 11 _ 10 ___ 10 _63-2=61

    Icicle2025 _____________ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 08 _____ 58

    200motels _____________13 _ 14 _ 01 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 50

    Cornerstonelad _________ 19 _ 08 _ 00 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 04 _____ 43

    M.T. Cranium ___________12 _ 18 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 02 _____ 43

    esposito _______________17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 03 _____ 41

    JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 03 _41-8 =33

    Adam240610____ (-7) ___ 12 _ 08 _ 01 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 06 _36-7=29

    Joe Public _____________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 _____ 28

    note: PRC raw scores +1 to allow 01 for better (> -10.6) zero raw scores (also -5.5)

    ======================== [] ================

    (forecasts)

    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max

    Artane2002 ____________5.9 _ 14.6 _ -7.1 _ 100 _ 095 ___-0.5

    john mac ______________5.4 _ 16.0 _ -7.3 _ 106 _ 108 ___ 1.3

    Tae laidir ______________5.4 _ 13.9 _ -6.6 _ 111 _ 092 ___-1.0

    NormaL _______________5.1 _ 15.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.8

    MrSkinner _____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.2 _ 091 _ 104 ___-2.0

    Sunflower3 ____________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -8.1 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 0.0

    sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 080 _ 105 ___-1.1

    DOCARCH _____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -6.6 _ 095 _ 097 ___-1.2

    Kindred Spirit __________ 4.9 _ 14.1 _ -7.7 _ 088 _ 100 ___-1.5

    Dacogawa _____________ 4.8 _ 14.6 _ -7.7 _ 096 _ 110 ___-1.8

    Appledrop _____________ 4.8 _ 14.0 _ -8.0 _ 123 _ 095 ___-0.5

    Jpmarn _______________ 4.7 _ 13.5 _ -9.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___-1.5

    Bsal __________________4.7 _ 13.0 _ -7.0 _ 088 _ 095 ___-1.0

    waterways _____________4.6 _ 15.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 109 ___-2.2

    ____Con Sensus ________ 4.6 _ 14.1 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___-1.7

    Mr stonewall ___________ 4.6 _ 14.3 _ -8.3 _ 082 _ 115 ___-1.4

    WolfeEire ______________4.5 _ 14.7 _ -8.0 _ 080 _ 109 ___-0.1

    Dasa29 _______________ 4.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___-2.0

    Gonzo ________________ 4.3 _ 14.5 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 123 ___-2.5

    Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 4.1 _ 13.3 _ -9.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___-2.0

    Icicle2025 _____________ 4.1 _ 13.1 _-10.6 _ 090 _ 115 ___-1.7

    Cornerstonelad _________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-11.0 _ 075 _ 128 ___-3.0

    esposito _______________3.8 _ 13.2 _-10.9 _ 074 _ 130 ___-3.4

    200motels _____________3.4 _ 14.8 _-10.5 _ 077 _ 125 ___-1.8

    M.T. Cranium ___________3.3 _ 14.0 _-12.5 _ 073 _ 129 ___-3.7

    Adam240610____ (-7) ___3.3 _ 13.0 _-10.3 _ 073 _ 139 ___-2.7

    JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 3.2 _ 13.6 _-12.0 _ 070 _ 115 ___-3.5

    Joe Public _____________ 2.8 _ 12.4 _-11.4 _ 087 _ 124 ___-4.4

    ======================== [] ================



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,868 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Probably haven't issued statement yet because they're still reviewing the wind gusts from Éowyn.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I worked out that 3rd was a bank holiday so we won't be seeing the new climate summary until tomorrow. Will have to wait another day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    As I suspected, SUN was higher at 130%, also PRC was right on average at 100%. Slight changes to earlier scoring report … just about all scores dropped by a similar amount, so order is almost identical.

    Congrats to Dacogawa for a very good score of 88, and several others (incl last year's top 3) were in the 80s, our consensus was very good, one of Con's top scores. Normal was not far off but we'll remember Jan 2025 as a variable and volatile month.

    __ Revised scoring for Jan 2025 __

    FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Low max _ TOTAL

    final values ___________ 4.6_14.2_-7.6_ 100_130 __ -2.0

    Dacogawa _____________ 23 _ 16 _ 20 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 88

    ____Con Sensus _________25 _ 19 _ 17 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 08 _____ 87

    Kindred Spirit __________ 22 _ 19 _ 20 _ 11 _ 04 ___ 07 _____ 83

    MrSkinner _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 17 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 81

    sryanbruen ____________ 22 _ 20 _ 20 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 05 _____ 80

    Mr stonewall ___________ 25 _ 19 _ 14 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 06 _____ 80

    Gonzo ________________ 22 _ 17 _ 15 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 78

    DOCARCH _____________ 22 _ 20 _ 11 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 _____ 77

    Sunflower3 ____________ 20 _ 19 _ 16 _ 13 _ 03 ___ 02 _____ 73

    ____ NormaL __________ 20 _ 12 _ 20 _ 15 _ 04 ___ 01 _____ 72

    WolfeEire ______________24 _ 15 _ 17 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 02 _____ 72

    Appledrop _____________ 23 _ 18 _ 17 _ 07 _ 03 ___ 03 _____ 71

    Dasa29 _______________ 24 _ 18 _ 01 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 10 _____ 69

    Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 13 _ 02 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 68

    Bsal __________________24 _ 08 _ 15 _ 11 _ 03 ___ 04 _____ 65

    Artane2002 ____________12 _ 16 _ 16 _ 15 _ 03 ___ 03 _____ 65

    Tae laidir ______________17 _ 17 _ 11 _ 11 _ 02 ___ 04 _____ 62

    waterways _____________25 _ 07 _ 03 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 62

    john mac ______________17 _ 02 _ 18 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 01 _____ 57

    Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 20 _ 11 _ 01 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 10 _60-2=58

    Icicle2025 _____________ 20 _ 09 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 57

    200motels _____________13 _ 14 _ 01 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 53

    Cornerstonelad _________ 19 _ 08 _ 00 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 04 _____ 48

    M.T. Cranium ___________12 _ 18 _ 00 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 02 _____ 48

    esposito _______________17 _ 10 _ 00 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 03 _____ 46

    Adam240610____ (-7) ___ 12 _ 08 _ 01 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 06 _41-7=34

    JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 11 _ 14 _ 00 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 03 _40-8 =32

    Joe Public _____________ 07 _ 02 _ 00 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 02 _____ 31

    note: PRC raw scores +1 to allow 01 for better (> -10.6) zero raw scores (also -5.5)

    ======================== [] ================

    (forecasts)

    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max

    Artane2002 ____________5.9 _ 14.6 _ -7.1 _ 100 _ 095 ___-0.5

    john mac ______________5.4 _ 16.0 _ -7.3 _ 106 _ 108 ___ 1.3

    Tae laidir ______________5.4 _ 13.9 _ -6.6 _ 111 _ 092 ___-1.0

    NormaL _______________5.1 _ 15.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.8

    MrSkinner _____________ 5.1 _ 14.5 _ -7.2 _ 091 _ 104 ___-2.0

    Sunflower3 ____________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -8.1 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 0.0

    sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -7.5 _ 080 _ 105 ___-1.1

    DOCARCH _____________ 4.9 _ 14.2 _ -6.6 _ 095 _ 097 ___-1.2

    Kindred Spirit __________ 4.9 _ 14.1 _ -7.7 _ 088 _ 100 ___-1.5

    Dacogawa _____________ 4.8 _ 14.6 _ -7.7 _ 096 _ 110 ___-1.8

    Appledrop _____________ 4.8 _ 14.0 _ -8.0 _ 123 _ 095 ___-0.5

    Jpmarn _______________ 4.7 _ 13.5 _ -9.5 _ 100 _ 115 ___-1.5

    Bsal __________________4.7 _ 13.0 _ -7.0 _ 088 _ 095 ___-1.0

    waterways _____________4.6 _ 15.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 109 ___-2.2

    ____Con Sensus ________ 4.6 _ 14.1 _ -8.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___-1.7

    Mr stonewall ___________ 4.6 _ 14.3 _ -8.3 _ 082 _ 115 ___-1.4

    WolfeEire ______________4.5 _ 14.7 _ -8.0 _ 080 _ 109 ___-0.1

    Dasa29 _______________ 4.5 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 100 ___-2.0

    Gonzo ________________ 4.3 _ 14.5 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 123 ___-2.5

    Pauldry _____ (-2) ______ 4.1 _ 13.3 _ -9.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___-2.0

    Icicle2025 _____________ 4.1 _ 13.1 _-10.6 _ 090 _ 115 ___-1.7

    Cornerstonelad _________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-11.0 _ 075 _ 128 ___-3.0

    esposito _______________3.8 _ 13.2 _-10.9 _ 074 _ 130 ___-3.4

    200motels _____________3.4 _ 14.8 _-10.5 _ 077 _ 125 ___-1.8

    M.T. Cranium ___________3.3 _ 14.0 _-12.5 _ 073 _ 129 ___-3.7

    Adam240610____ (-7) ___3.3 _ 13.0 _-10.3 _ 073 _ 139 ___-2.7

    JCXBXC________ (-8) ___ 3.2 _ 13.6 _-12.0 _ 070 _ 115 ___-3.5

    Joe Public _____________ 2.8 _ 12.4 _-11.4 _ 087 _ 124 ___-4.4

    ======================== [] ================

    On to Feb …



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