Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Nuclear - future for Ireland?

1656668707175

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I have already dealt with all your accusations of me manipulating and misrepresenting data and showed them for the rubbish they were in realation to, CfD comparative costs, the difference in 35 year CfD and 15year CfD, that hydrogen was part of the 37 GW plan for here, and that interest rates were not the reason for offshore costs rising by 60%, and have already told you I have better to do with my time than rehas it over and over with you.

    So be my guest and repost all my posts to you, but have the ethics to post yours that mine were in reply too to show the true context.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    They were relative enough to be discussed here when they were being used as a reasion for not building a nuclear plant, and I may be wrong but I do not remember you having a problem with them then ?

    What I posted was verbatim from the EU report which was in Mtoe. But really what does it matter. It shows that 59% of EU energy classifies as renewable came from biomass and waste, and 70% of that total was solid fuels. Whatever unit of measure that is in will not change the percentages.

    I see you could not find the grace to rectify your false claim that I was "called out on being rude to another poster recently" but no matter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,934 ✭✭✭Birdnuts




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,934 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Coupling Data centres with useless windfarms is making these fines alot worse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Renewable electricity generation has been used here as a reason to not build nuclear plant. I don't have a problem with renewable electricity generation.

    The very poster you were rude to said the same. Yesterday.

    Consider yourself ignored.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It has indeed, and not just here, it is was being used by the lunatic fringe in the E.U. for the same.Well now you know that the EU claim on the level of energy being provided by renewables is a sham where 59% is from biomass and 41% of the total claimed is from burning solid fuels.

    That you cannot admit you got it wrong when you accused me of being calling out by that other poster you now mention for being rude, when it was me who called him/her out by suggesting they might have a bit of manners when posting, is not going to have crying tears being ignored by you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    This total anti nuclear obsession of yours is blinding you to reality. This idea of yours that nuclear power cannot be exported, or that France do not export nuclear is looking more manic every time you post it.

    GC_nTRHXQAA-TF3.png

    Of the top 5 electricity net exporters in 2023, 4 were countries that have nuclear generation as part of their electricity generation mix. The other was Norway, which along with not being a EU member state, is uniquely blessed with hydro.

    In 2023, even when the percentage of their generation from nuclear was the second lowest in close to 40 years, France was the stand-out by a mile as the major net exporter of electricity. It is abject nonsense attempting to protray that as being due renewables. Even commom sense should show you that without nuclear France would have been exporting nothing. Same as all the other EU state who did not use nuclear as part of their generation mix in 2023 and French export of electricity is forecast to rise to an all time high for 2024.

    For 2024, especially during the recently extended period when Germany was bleeding both Sweden and Norway dry resulting in massive cost increases in both countries, nobody, including France, had wind power to export. France, along with the other EU countries who have nuclear as part of their generation mix were keeping the lights on for the rest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Here’s each nuclear-equipped country’s nuclear share (highest to lowest) against their 2024 power transfers (from your map).

    Country

    Nuclear share

    Net tranfer (TWh)

    Total Nuclear (TWh)

    Trasfer as % of Nuclear Generation

    France

    62.80%

    50.3

    294.731038

    17.07%

    Slovakia

    60.20%

    3.5

    15.92

    21.98%

    Belgium

    46.40%

    -3.2

    43.8791

    -7.29%

    Hungary

    44.20%

    -11.6

    15.812

    -73.36%

    Slovenia

    41.90%

    -2.2

    5.605508

    -39.25%

    Czechia

    37.00%

    9.2

    31.02181

    29.66%

    Finland

    35.10%

    -3

    25.336

    -11.84%

    Bulgaria

    32.60%

    3.1

    16.462018

    18.83%

    Sweden

    30.00%

    28.5

    51.944

    54.87%

    Spain

    20.30%

    11.8

    58.59

    20.14%

    Romania

    19.90%

    3.1

    11.088709

    27.96%

    United Kingdom

    13.90%

    -24.6

    40.6

    -60.59%

    Germany

    6.00%

    -11.7

    34.709

    -33.71%

    Netherlands

    3.40%

    5.6

    4.156313

    134.73%

    Having lots of nuclear power does not by itself imply that you will be a large exporter of energy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I never said it did, but to me at least it defies reason and logic that 4 of the top 5 net exporters for 2023, and especially France with its high generation from nuclear, were not net exporters due to them having nuclear generation.

    You could put one down to coincidence perhaps, but all four would be seriously stretching credibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Statistically speaking, it is co-incidence. There’s only a very weak correlation between installed nuclear capacity and net energy transfers. Feel free to do the correlation yourself - the figures are there; without France in the data, it comes out at r=0.27 or so.

    France is a major exporter of electricity, but there’s no evidence that the reason for that is the size its nuclear fleet.

    There are too many confounding factors to make any kind of judgement based on the data you presented. The biggest confounder is good old politics: some nations have simply made a decision that it is better to buy energy than make it themselves. Hungary is in this boat (maybe not by choice: Orbán’s clownshow might be good at spite, but they couldn’t run a **** bath without stealing the taps), as is the UK and Italy. Others have embarked on a policy of exporting electricity for profit: Norway, Sweden, France are in this basket. Then you have arrangements that look like deficiencies, but are there for geographical convenience: generators in the Netherlands provide power to parts of Belgium and Luxembourg because it’s easier. It’s a single grid, and a single market.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Statistically speaking when you look on 2023 as a single grid there is no co-incidence. Not when you remove the top five net exporters and compare the countries with net imports to the remaing counties with net exports.

    France, Sweden, Spain and Czechia are net exporters because they have nuclear, and Norway can to do so because of their unique situation regarding hyrdo. But with the EU having left the Energy Trading Treaty and creating their Flow Based Market Coupling Mechanism they have now pissed off both Norway and Sweden.

    The Flow based Market Coupling Mechanism prioritises demand across the whole network rather than those of national needs. During the recent prolonged drop in wind resulted in both countries being treated like batteries, (by Germany in particular a country that shut down its own nuclear plants during a European energy they played a major hand in creating ), and drained to the extent their domestic rates for electricity went through the roof. Sweden may not be able to do a lot about that being members of the EU, but Norway are not and are saying they will take back control of their electricity exports with refusing to renew the "Denmark Cables". If they do there will be a lotta countries in the EU praying France in particular keeps exporting large volumes of nuclear generation to keep their lights on.

    Post edited by charlie14 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    You don't understand me. Statistically speaking, as in: looking at how the figures are related, rather than trying to fit them into a pre-decided opinion, there's no correlation.

    You're dangerously close to arguing that Plato is a dog.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I understood you perfectly, and pointed out that if you removed the net exports from the four major exporter countries who use nuclear in their generation mix and Norway due to their unique situation with hydro, (which is looking highly likely to change were Norwegian exports are concerned with them saying they are going to take back control due to being recently bleed by EU countries), which countries from that map of Europe showing each country`s net imports and net export is going to make up the deficites.

    The idea that the four major net exporters who use nuclear as part of their generation are only exporting renewables defies common sense and has you dangerously close to denying what your own eyes can see.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Where, exactly, did I say that they were exporting renewable energy? If you want to argue with your own imagination, please don't drag me into it…

    In some cases I know that the transfers are mostly of fossil electricity. When I said that you were on shaky ground to correlate high nuclear adoption with high exports, that was the beginning and end of what I wanted to communicate.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Rough numbers for our grid before renewables. Unlike warmer climates we don't have a lot of cooling demand in summer.

    2 GW summer night valley - minimum demand

    3 GW summer daytime , spring / autumn night time

    4 GW in spring / autumn

    5 GW when it's proper cold

    6 GW total installed dispatchable plant to ensure availability of that 5 GW.

    (Or use the same numbers for a nuclear future with 9 GW on the island with 6 x 1.5 GW reactors.)

    We'd only have full time demand for 2 reactors worth of power. Every reactor after that would face diminishing returns. It gets worse as we can already use up to 75% of renewables and imports, with 95% coming. Only 5% demand will need to come from non-synchronous generators, and hydro , CHP, biomass etc are already doing that.

    Note: You can compare our TWh per year with our current installed dispatchables to see that the average capacity on our grid is about half, and that if you include the third of power produced by renewables it's even lower.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    What has any of that to do with our projected peak demand to increase to 14 GW, or higher, by 2050 when generation is supposed to be at net zero ?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It's to point out that how little the guaranteed demand there is for a inflexible fixed power source which is only suitable for base load when there's massive amounts of backup and spinning reserve available. To meet peak demand you need to ramp up dispatchables or over provide nuclear. ( while you could export the spinning reserve most of it is only there because of nuclear so it's carbon footprint needs to be laid at nuclear's door )

    If we need about 80TWh by 2050 , it works out at 9GW average.

    A peak demand of 14GW could be met by 9 x 1.6GW reactors , but even if you had perfect reactors then in theory you would need at least two spare to handle an outage during a time when one reactor is off line for maintenance or refuelling.

    So you'd be looking at installing 11 x 1.6GW reactors which is close enough to 18GW which works out at a capacity factor of 50%, which means your capital costs double.

    And that gives you no redundancy where two reactors are off the grid in winter for whatever reason. So to reduce risk you'd need to add more reactors which increases capital costs further and reduces capacity factor which means break even payback time stretches on and on.

    There's also the time it takes to build a fleet of nuclear power plants. If you try building in parallel to go faster , it won't cheap.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,569 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Nuclear energy future is now a must so we can start our nuclear weapons program sooner rather then later!

    You never know when a future US president insists we join as a state. By then it'll be the US of CUM (Canada, US, Mexico) and after we join it'll be CUMGI ( Greenland/Ireland).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,872 ✭✭✭satguy


    We don't have this kind of money..

    Overbudget: Britain's $57BN Nuclear Nightmare

    What went wrong at Hinkley Point C — Europe's largest construction site

    Link to vid.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycNqII5HYMI&t=1s
    


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,174 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Really?


    There are usually several ways to do things - some of them often the wrong way. We would no more have to do nuclear the UK wrong way than we have to leave the EU because they did. S Korea know how to build nuclear reactors fairly efficiently and have done so in the UAE and at home.

    Nuclear done the non UK way is cheaper than solar or offshore wind, based on the amount of energy actually produced.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Before even considering the rest of your post, you cannot design a grid to operate at average demand. It has to be able to handle peak demand.

    On 18th Jan our peak demand reached a new high of 5.64 GW. For the year we consumed 33 TWh. Consumption is predicted to rise to between 73 TWh - 86 TWh by 2050. That will mean peak demand of ~14 GW.

    If you are relying on 9 GW to keep the lights on you are going to be sadly mistaken, so where are you going to get the extra required 5 GW from ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Those opposed to even concidering nuclear here, not only select the most expensive capital cost nuclear plant the can find, they run a mile when questioned as to how much the generation plan they favour will cost.

    Based on U.K. capital costs for just the offshore turbines now, that 37 GW offshore wind/hydrogen plan would cost €160 Bn. And that does not include the capital cost for the hydrogen. That plan would generate for consumption, with a capacity factor of 40%, 7.4 GW. That is €21.6 Bn per GW. Hinkley C at $57 Bn with a capacity factor of 94% would be €18.5 Bn per GW.

    Even for the most expensive nuclear plant some here can find, Hinkley is still cheaper, and that is not even including the hydrogen costs. If we cannot afford nuclear then we certainly cannot afford this 2050 37 GW plan that would not even provide our 2050 requirements.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,174 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    No Wind 8-1-25 record.jpg

    New demand record tonight. Thank goodness we have all that solar and wind, or we would be screwed.

    Maybe I have been wrong all this time and we don't need nuclear at all, burning gas seems to do the trick.

    No wind 8-1-25 CO2 .jpg

    See, only 384g per KWh.

    So what if France was producing 25g per KWh at the same time, 1536% as much CO2 doesn't matter, having lot's of renewables does - it's the whole point! Why didn't I realise this before, I have been so blind!

    France CO2 8-1-25.png

    No need for nuclear at all CO2 is a brilliant and cheap alternative - more CO2 and renewables please.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    9GW is the average. That's the average electricity customers pay for. That's what pays for nuclear.

    You missed the bit where at least 18GW of installed nuclear would be required to meet 14GW peak due to needing redundancy during maintenance and fuelling.

    To provide the other 9GW which would only be used during above average demand would effectively double the already eye watering capital cost of nuclear.

    NB if there was no nuclear on the grid you'd wouldn't need 1.6GW of spinning reserve, we already have enough batteries to handle the largest single generator falling off the grid until pumped storage etc. came on line.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The latest French , Finish , US and Czechia plants are all comparable too.

    The US has a 50% failure rate in nuclear construction over the last 37 years. This adds 50% to their costs. The last 4 reactors cost about $40bn in total. But only 2 were delivered. One project went $10bn over budget , the other was abandoned after $10Bn was spent.

    Plants in the UAE and China aren't following the same economics , but multiply thousands of workers by higher end construction wages and costs soon mount up. Japan is still struggling to restart plants from 2011, France had a 40% drop in nuclear in August.

    Nuclear is so expensive that I'm not even bothering to query your costings.

    37GW at your costing of €160 at a offshore capacity factor of 50% works out at ~ €8.6Bn / GW when the wind is blowing. That's less than half the price of nuclear.

    The €21.6Bn per GW price for hydrogen is only 17% more expensive than nuclear. And only for the demand that can't be met by solar or other renewables or interconnectors or demand shedding etc. And only for the 10-15 years of the contract. Which means that wind will be on open market prices by the time nuclear could be delivered.

    Wind will be paid for and on open market prices before nuclear could be delivered.

    And you have to add the potential €20bn fine to the costs for going for nuclear instead of renewables.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Basing generation on the average electricity people pay for over a year is a recipe for disaster.

    What happens when demand rises about this 9GW average to reach peak demand (or anywhere in between) of 14GW. Shutting down one third of the grid ?

    Why would you need 18GW of nuclear to provide this 14GW. With the capacity factor of nuclear at 94% less than 1GW would do it. We already have 5.5GW of installed renewables, with a further 3GW contracted under ORESS 1. At the very least if that 8.5GW is going to do anything it should be sufficient to cover that. There are also those interconnectors you keep reminding us that would stop our grid shutting down when wind drops off to providing little or nothing.

    The idea that with renewables we would not need spinning reserves is a nonsense where we have a 37GW offshore wind plan for 2050 as our largest single generator where wind has fallen to below 6% and less for extended periods. Especially when that 37GW is going to bring us nowhere close to to fulfilling our 2050 demand.

    The eye watering difference in capital costs between nuclear and renewables, even with you using the most expensive you can find with Hinkley, is that of renewables.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Your not bothering to query my costings now of €160 Bn for just the capital cost of 37GW of offshore alone without hydrogen for the same reason you did not any time previously when asked to give your own costing. Because it is based on the U.K. offshore costs. And now you somehow believe that by doubling that figure to €320 Bn by adding the cost of hydrogen at €21.6Bn per GW (€21.6 X 7.4 GW = €159.84Bn.) somehow makes wind power more economic sense than nuclear.

    And where did this 50% capacity factor suddenly appear out of ?

    My figure of €160 Bn is based on the a capacity factor of 40%, (U.K. offshore fixed turbines capacity factor for 2023 was 39.7%) The only way your are going to get 50% is from floating where the capital costs are going to be ~ 50% higher than fixed. The CfD for Hinkley is £92.50 per MWh, for floating it is £139.93, 51% higher.

    As far as averages go, today at 10.45 when demand was 6763 MW, renewables were providing 441MW, 6.52%. That`s what renewable averages get you.

    At present costs, this wind/hydrogen plan will be paid for by the consumer at a price 50% higher than your big bad bogey of Hinkley and we will be heading towards auctions for prices for wind every 15 years, where in two years alone the strike price has increased by 60%, compared to a 35 year fixed strike price for nuclear.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Where are you getting that 94% capacity factor figure from ?

    To suggest that it's an average is misleading because NO country has hit 94% three years in a row. None.

    Nuclear plants have long uptimes, but they also have long downtimes. You will have two plants offline at the same time (actually in the real world it's way worse than that.) So you need at least three plants more to guarantee supply at peak demand. Hence the extra 4GW.

    The largest non nuclear generator on the grid is less than our existing battery capacity. And should last long enough to start gas generators (natural gas moving to hydrogen)

    Having a 1.6GW reactor go offline would require us to have 1.2GW available within 5 seconds and the full 1.6GW within 15 seconds and stay on line until the spare reactor could ramp up. That amount of batteries coupled with solar would mean we wouldn't need nuclear for half the year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    You'll actually need to read the article to get the details ,but basically the 14.7 billion dollars is for 30% of the project... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poland-approves-14-7bn-first-163807568.html

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,174 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    It's just repeating the same mistakes made in earlier articles linked to.

    It doesn't pass any sniff test.

    South Korea built Shin Hanul units 1&2 at a cost of €2.44 B per GW. They are currently building units 3&4 - budgeting for €2.77 B per GW.
    The same company building those - KHNP - built 4 of the same units in the UAE for €5.54 B per GW

    EDF built OL3 in Finland for €6.87 B per GW

    They built Flamanville 3 in France for €8.09 B per GW

    I do not believe any article claiming the Poles are prepared to pay €12.66 B per GW, which is near 4.5 time what Korea are currently building them for, particularly when Korea are reported to have offered to build them six reactors at €3.08 B per GW

    KHNP had reportedly offered to build six APR1400 reactors with a capacity of 8.4GWe for $26.7 billion. The Westinghouse offer was $31.3 billion for six AP1000 reactors with a total capacity of 6.7GWe, while EDF’s bid for its EPR technology was for $33-48.5 billion for four to six reactors. Polish media reported that KHNP had also proposed post-construction technology transfer to Poland and media speculation was that the contract would go to KHNP.

    The Czech republic is also going with Korea's KHNP for 2 reactors at Dukovany NPP at an estimated cost of €5.75 B per GW

    €12.66 B per GW - Does..not..compute..

    Post edited by cnocbui on


Advertisement