Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Nuclear - future for Ireland?

1646567697075

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Importing timber from outside the EU is a disgrace and should be banned. Between Diesel Gate and the Mercusor Deal the EU had a lot to answer for.

    Now about that 60% figure. Solid biomass to electricity is approx 3% of the renewable mix. Look at the text below from the 2023 report.

    "Electricity production from solid biofuels was stable,
    representing around 3% of total electricity production (2.9% in 2020 and 3.1% in 2021).
    Combining energy
    for the generation of electricity and heat, the main renewable energy source in the EU remains bioenergy
    (around 60%).
    In total, the share of renewable energies in the energy mix has increased considerably over
    the course of 2022 and 2023 and the EU agreed to speed up the deployment of renewable energies, with a
    target of 42.5% in the EU energy mix by 2030, and the ambition to reach 45%"

    My read of that is 60% of Combined Heat & Power (CHP) is biomass. A.k.a. 60% of f*ck all, the rest of CHP is probably burning rubbish and biogas burning in sewage treatment plants.

    Screenshot_20250104_211023_Drive.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,430 ✭✭✭gjim


    This thread only exists because of people's interest in nuclear in the context of it being a viable energy source for this country.

    To make the case for nuclear you need to at least acknowledge that the technology has been struggling with some serious and fundamental issues for many decades now.

    Here's a slightly updated version of the graph I posted earlier that includes the global number of reactors and capacity:

    globalnuclear2024.jpg

    I'd be genuinely interested if you, @cnocbui or other proponents of nuclear power, would attempt to provide a cogent explanation why this stagnation and relative decline happened and why it happened when it did?

    And if you believe that nuclear is a viable energy source and worth considering now in the mid 2020s, what is it that has changed about the technology recently that has made so?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Totally agree with you Paddy that the E.U. has a lot to answer for on all three, and green hands aren`t clean either, but the E.U. is not forcing us to import and burn wood in Mayo and Offaly. No more than anybody forced the U.K. to use Drax. Both the U.K. and here are doing it, where even green advocacy groups and An Taisce know it is a scam that does nothing other than make the emission figures look better.

    On that 60% figure, from your own post, for the generation of electricity and heat, the main renewable energy source in the EU remains bioenergy. Then it follows that bioenergy is supplying more than any other renewable source. Higher than wind at 16%.

    I don`t see how it makes any difference what you are using bioenergy for if it is providing 60% of your energy needs, be that electricity, heating or anything else. Even if you excluded liquid biofuels, biogas/bio-methane, and municipal waste, 70.3% of that 60% comes from primary solid biofuels. That means 42% of the E.U. total energy is supplied by burning solid fuels, and you do not do that carbon emissions neutral, but under EU classification you can claim it as so. It`s a scam with no other purpose that to mask the true emission figures, and it appears they are more than happy to continue doing it with even a higher percentage of their energy needs from it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    There's no need to say, from your own post, like that and then copy in the bold when that text and image is from a link in your post that I quoted.

    "Then it follows that bioenergy is supplying more than any other renewable source. Higher than wind at 16%"

    No it does not! Absolute nonsense. That's why I included a picture for you the last time. That's it below again. If it was higher than wind it would be on the donut chart.

    Screenshot_20250104_211023_Drive.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,174 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    France consumed 445.7 TWh in 2023. Their nuclear power generation was 338.2 TWh, which is 75.8% of the amount they consumed. Given they have 61.4 GW of installed nuclear capacity, they could in theory generate 537.86 TWh in a year with all reactors up and functioning at capacity.

    France theoretically has enough nuclear capacity to meet 120.7% of their 2023 consumption.

    As I have mentioned previously, you don't care about CO2 one jot, just being anti nuclear and pro renewables for the sake of tech bias. If you cared about CO2 you wouldn't dare to posit us following Germany in favour of France, because it's an absolute no-brainer!

    France's CO2 generation in 2023 was 32g per KWh - You'r beloved renewables besotted idiot Germany generated 303g per KWh - 947% as much as France - and you want us to follow those idiots.

    The emission intensity of French production, in 2023, remained much lower than that of most of its European neighbours, at 32 gCO2eq/kWh (against 53 gCO2eq/kWh in 2022). By way of comparison, the carbon intensity of electricity generation reached 303 gCO2eq/kWh in Germany and 270 gCO2eq/kWh in Italy.

    https://analysesetdonnees.rte-france.com/en/annual-review-2023/keyfindings

    France is only ramping up renewables to placate the morons in the EU Commission who will try to fine them if they don't, their main intent is to build more nuclear capacity.

    Trying to make it sound like they have abandoned nuclear for renewables is laughable. As I said, their renewables efforts are a smokescreen and are only to placate the mad EU commission.

    Actually, you remind me of the EU commission a lot.

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2023/11/22/france-refuses-to-pay-up-for-failing-to-meet-renewable-energies-targets_6279080_114.html

    In what LSD fuelled mind trip did the EU Commission think it appropriate to FINE a country when it produces more zenergy (zero carbon energy) than the total amount of energy consumed?

    The EU Commission doesn't give a sh​it about CO2 either, they like you are only concerned with renewables for renewables sake, not the actual emission of CO2.

    Try and and get your head around this: in 2023, France generated 473.96 TWh of zenergy - they consumed a total of 445.7 TWh

    They have already exceeded the 2050 goals that we and Germany are going to miss - not because they have some token renewables, but because they have a lot of nuclear generation capacity that doesn't fall over every time it's cloudy, or the wind drops to near nothing.

    France energy by source 2023.jpg


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Great numbers there from France. Ireland should install 9GW nuclear.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I don`t know what you are being so tetch about. I only highlighted what you did in your post to me.

    It is a direct quote from the EU 2023 State of the Energy Report, as are all the statistics I quoted and the diagrams below which show all renewable energy, and all the biomass and renewable waste that is part of that renewable energy broken down by percentage which shows solid biofuels (excluding charcoal) made up 70.3% of the 58.9% of biomass and renewable waste. 41.3% of this so called renewable energy came from burning solid fuel.

    I posted the link to that report earlier today if you want to read it for yourself. If you have a problem with it then question the EU about it. It`s their report.

    Screenshot 2025-01-04 at 13-05-53 EUR-Lex - 52023DC0650 - EN - EUR-Lex 2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Not tetchy at all, just reminding you that I read and quoted a report from your previous post.

    The donut charts on p.14 of the report have solid biomass as approx. 3% of the electricity mix. So you knew already that I read the report and still got a bit condescending. And you've been called out on being rude to another poster recently.

    You are posting numbers and charts from renewable energy mix. Does this include home heating and industrial heat use?

    Are you assuming all the solid biomass is from non EU timber?

    Germany has had a massive pivot to growing plants like willow and converting district heating from fossil fuels to local supply.

    That's fairly disingenuous on a thread about generating electricity from nuclear power in Ireland. That's OK if you don't know the difference between energy and electricity but a sleight of hand if you do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 249 ✭✭scrabtom


    It said in the report that 80% it biomass is from EU sources.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,511 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Finland uses a lot of sawmill waste for its biomass generation, and the trees felled for that wood are replanted.

    Some biomass schemes are gteenwashing, but that doesn't mean that all biomass generation is. Most are legit.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Does that include general home heating firewood ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You need to keep up Paddy.

    I was not "called out" for being rude to another poster. I called out another poster for being rude and condescending, so I would appreciate you acknowledging your mistake.

    I wan`t being a bit condescending of your donut charts. I could not understand how you missed the earlier donut chart that clearly showed the level of biomass and renewable waste that made up the total for renewable energy and the percentage that came from solid fuels. 43.1% of the total renewable energy.

    Screenshot 2025-01-04 at 13-05-53 EUR-Lex - 52023DC0650 - EN - EUR-Lex 2.png

    I do not see how it is being somehow disingenuous to point out that burning solid fuels like wood is not carbon neutral and are only classified as such by the EU because the distort the true figure on emissions. Especially with the large percentages that are being included as being carbon neutral.

    As to posting about it on this thread, are we not being told that by those opposed to nuclear, ( a much more carbon neutral energy source than wood burning which is no better than burning coal as far as emissions go), that we need to get to EU emissions targets or we will have heavy fines imposed. Especially when we are getting into burning wood here in plants in both Mayo and Offaly and classifying the whole exercise, including shipping wood half way around the world, as carbon neutral. Drax wood burning plant in the U.K. has also been used here by posters as a negative for nuclear where electricity generation is concerned.

    I do not see what difference it makes if wood for burning comes from within the E.U. or elsewhere. Like cows the world over that belch methane whether here or in Brazil, wood is no different. Nor do I see what difference it makes if it is used for generating electricity, home heating or industrial heating, the emissions are the same regardless of what it is burned for. Willow died a death here years ago with farmers who planted it in good faith now looking for state aid to rip it out so they can use the land for something of economic benefit to them

    It`s a scam that has nothing to do with emissions, just masking what the true emissions levels are which would allow the largest practitioners to walk away scot free while others are threatened with the big stick of fines.

    Post edited by charlie14 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,430 ✭✭✭gjim


    I was not "called out" for being rude to another poster. I called out another poster for being rude and condescending, so I would appreciate you acknowledging your mistake.

    Lol.

    Don't be taking the moral high-ground now charlie. You directly accused me of being drunk and/or ignorant for disagreeing with you. That wasn't being rude? At least I acknowledged I had been snotty with you.

    But you never have and I guess never will acknowledge anything negative about your behavior here: your occasional rudeness, your mistakes/factual inaccuracies, your disingenuous "mixing up" different measurements, your condescension, your prickliness when corrected, nothing…

    It's quite hypocritical to be demanding acknowledgments from anybody in this thread given your own behavior, don't you think?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Bit rich I must say from someone who on three occassions accused me of lying where I showed they were wrong each time, who didn`t have a clue on Contracts for Difference until I spent days patiently explaining it to them, who did know that hydrogen production was part of the 37GW offshore plan for here, or somehow believed that the 60% increase in offshore construction costs was due to an increase in interest rates that was just unique to offshore wind farm construction costs.

    If anything I believe I was very patient dealing with your nonsense and I have no interest of rehasing it with you. I have better for doing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,430 ✭✭✭gjim


    Yes it does. The "biggest" European biomass energy users proportionally are all Scandinavian countries which rely on solid biomass - wood burning - extensively for domestic and industrial heating.

    In Sweden, for example, 70% of all heat is produced through solid biomass. And this has been the case for decades.

    I'm still not a fan of it but if you're going to use solid biomass (trees) for heating then of course the Scandies have done it in the most sustainable way possible with careful forestry management. And the relatively common use of more efficient district heating schemes minimizes particulates and other toxic pollutants.

    Unfortunately for example Sweden is also a big user of liquid biofuels in transport which rely on imports.

    How any of this strengthens the case for more nuclear electricity generation, I'm not sure.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,645 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I would see that it makes much difference what it is used for. The emission from burning it would be the same.

    Most likely more so domestically, and even green advocacy groups internationally as well as An Taisce here have said it is nothing more than an accountancy scam.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,430 ✭✭✭gjim


    Bit rich I must say from someone who on three occassions accused me of lying where I showed they were wrong each time

    Don't force me to start using the absolutely useless search feature on this site now charlie. I didn't accuse you of lying but you have no provided ample scope for me to do so.

    But I rather focus on your claims. The three "lies" I guess were:

    Did you or did you not confuse inflation rates with interest rates?

    Did you or did you not neglect to include any costs for backup/reserve for nuclear in your "nuclear vs wind" cost comparison?

    Did you or did you not neglect to account for the cost difference in providing a 35 year price CfD and a 14.5 year one?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    I didn't miss the (pie) charts that you pasted in above, if that is what you are referring to. They are not very relative to the discussion about how to build or how suitable Ireland is for nuclear electricity generation.

    Almost all other posters are sharing electricity data in TWh per year, or some other measure of Watt.

    You are popping in with energy stats that includes home heating and stats expressed as Million tons Oil Equivalent. Total waste of time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,872 ✭✭✭satguy


    We have the money, and we really need the electricity.

    So why not build two really big nuclear power plants, with all the latest tech. One as close to Dublin as it is safe to do so. The other one could go down south somewhere.

    Let's do something good with all this tax money that is rolling in these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,840 ✭✭✭✭josip


    All that tax money would be needed to pay the legal costs for Sweetman :)



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,420 ✭✭✭Consonata


    If Nuclear was best bang for buck that you could get with new power, then France wouldn't be closing more plants than it is opening.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    If it takes a minimum of 16 years from tender to deliver additional reactors (of different types) to existing nuclear plants in the UK , France, Czechia ( three countries that started building nuclear power plants in the 1950's) and Finland (who only started building them in the 1970's) …

    … what low carbon power source should we install to avoid EU fines of up to €20Bn if we don't meet our 2030 emissions targets ?



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I'm not saying they weren't exporting. I'm saying they weren't exporting nuclear. And all of these countries have levels of interconnectors , and ramping rates on interconnectors we could only dream of.

    Like Norway, Sweden has lots of hydro. And it's a special case because Finland's main reason to import electricity from Sweden was the delay of the OLK3 plant. With nuclear the more you dig the worse it looks.

    Spain has lots of solar. The only reason it has nuclear is because fascist dictator Franco's government signed the contracts.

    There is a non-zero risk of the "I can't believe it's not the Real IRA" (or in the case of unification, the other lads) interfering with construction of a plant here, given that it's a tactic that worked for ETA in Spain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Sorry my comment was petty tongue in cheek, installing 9GW or approx 120% of Ireland peak demand. Which we cannot do as we are an island that isn't part of the second largest grid on earth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,430 ✭✭✭gjim


    There is no real "latest tech" in nuclear.

    Right now, you have a choice of 3 commercially available designs and that's it. The French EPR has been in the works since the early 1990s. The US AP1000 is a 2 decade old design based on the earlier (never built) AP600 also from around 1990. While work on the Korean APR-1400 started in 1992.

    The technology is stuck in the early 1990s.

    And you don't get to pick a "really big" size when shopping for nuclear reactors. You get what the reactor design offers: 1.65GW for EPR, 1.1GW for the AP1000 and 1.45GW for the APR 1400. No customization of the reactor design is possible given the 10 year lead for design to certification.

    And all three of these "latest generation designs" have had very significant issues which is why there are so few of them. There are only 3 "operational" EPRs in the world with 3 under construction, the AP1000 has 6 in operation and 6 under construction while the APR-1400 has 8 in operation and 2 under construction.

    All 3 designs have involved cost and time overruns - the EPR and AP1000 are the worst in this regard - averaging about 10B overrun per-reactor and more than 10 years late with examples like the Virgil C. Summer project in the US bankrupting Westinghouse and abandoned after spending $10B. While both the AP1000 and APR-1400 have been tainted by corruption, certification forgery and have resulted in convictions and jail time for people involved in the projects both in the USA and South Korea.

    The industry has been moribund in terms of technology advancement for decades. Because little has been invested in the industry - new reactor construction has collapsed globally since around 1995. The number of operational reactors in the world peaked at 438 in 2002.

    The picture over the last 2 decades would be even more grim for nuclear if it wasn't for China but even they have recently changed tack. In 2023, the Chinese added 217GW of solar PV to their grid vs 1GW of nuclear. You can apply whatever capacity factors you want but this shows the irrelevance of nuclear globally. 2023 was interesting for another milestone - world-wide investment in grid-scale batteries now exceeds that in nuclear power.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,174 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    France had already announced that shutdown. And you have to include the capacity lost since they opened the previous plant.

    https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Macron-clarifies-French-energy-plans

    France's two oldest reactors - units 1 and 2 at the Fessenheim plant in eastern France - will close in the spring of 2020, he said. Two further reactors will be shut down in 2025/2026, with two more following in 2027-2028. The remaining reactors would close by 2035.

    The reality of the situation is that France has about 32 900MW reactors that are reaching the end of their design lives. EDF got to extend them on a case by case basis. But they screwed up on the UK AGR extensions and the maintenance on the French reactors. If they ignore physics it won't ignore them.

    EDF's own figures are a net income of €7Bn and debt of €54.Bn which isn't going down.

    There is some good news : Flamanville 3 reactor was connected to the national grid on 21 December 2024 at 11:48am and has produced 100 MW of electricity.

    So no it's still not fully operation yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Honestly, a lot depends on EDF, and Sizewell C's design .

    I'm assuming any new french power stations are going to be cut and copy of Sizewell , although the next station completed could be in France yet ..

    IF they can build that ,on time and on budget ,then it's game on for EDF and french nuclear design in Europe..

    But we won't know that for 10 to 15 years ..

    And if we were to sign up then , and be next in the que , we'd be 10 to 15 years after that ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,063 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I assume that EDF were keen to build and refine / hopefully perfect their design in the UK , because that way the UK would on the hook for some of the costs ,

    The french Gov might still be subsidising the plants , but probably better than being on the hook for the whole thing ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    By rights they should be cut and paste versions of the Taishan nuclear power plant whose first EPR reactor started up in 2018 (but then three years later shut down for a year, but lessons learnt etc.)

    But nah, they are going for EPR 2 reactors this time out because EDF know best and this time they'll get it right.



Advertisement