1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

ECM rolling out on WX. It's a couple of miles (literally) better off for us. Watched it frame by frame. Low slightly shallower it seems, which gives us that little bit of help. The below is the worst of it in terms of the northwards progression before the pivot and colder air quickly returns to the entire island.

EDIT: "us" is very ambiguous there. ECM is still a poor option for many in the southern 3rd, and great potentially for those north of the boundary.

If my knowledge doesn't deceive me, the boundary (but the right side of it) is where the most potential can be in these events. Most moisture available right?

Bank! Sorry the Brendan Grace character in Father Ted is coming out in me now. I still fear this could go too far north but as you said with a flabbier core it could correct south in the end .

WolfeEire has taken over the controls of the ECM it seems.

A slider type effect where it would push north and fall away southeast or eastsoutheast. At the moment it generally is tracking eastnortheast which is why it pulls up much milder air.

UKMO:

GEM:

GFS:

ICON:

IRIE:

Interested to see the next IRIE update.

Take what he told you with a large grain of that salt they’ll be treating the roads with

For what it is worth, the BBC get their forecasts from a private company, not the UKMO.

I've never seen so much in met eirreans outlook

The cold spell is not on the way out, the issue is who misses out on snow at the weekend. What we can say is that after the rain, sleet and snow clears away late Sunday, it will get cold nationwide with severe frosts and icy conditions for much of next week. Over any snowfields it will be even colder still.

Whatever does fall especially in midland regions will freeze on impact with those cold ground temps. Hazardous roads for sure.

Theres been no flip on the models lads, it's more or less figuring out where the system will land. Too far north and it's rain for everyone, too far south and most of the country miss out on any precip.

I find once a few posts go a bit pessimistic everyone panics and starts firing the toys from the pram! Human nature huh?

Regardless, the weather will do what it wants to do and it's only an educated guessing game you play here with the forecasts. Slight upgrades or downgrades aside, looks like a very cold snap.

ECM is a little further south on my reading which consequently brings the threat of snowfall further south. The latest run is at the top, morning run at bottom. The snow risk remains most likely north of a line from mid-Clare to Louth and higher ground south of this.

Whatever about us, much of England has been royally screwed by the modelling for those seeking snow there. Rotten luck.

Considering past January milder weather it certainly is a change..

Reeling in the years RTE, first clip, the big snow in the early 80s, how appropriate, maybe.