1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

30mm is just over 1 inch.

30cm is just less than 1 foot.

I'd argue that shows heavy snow for norhh cork and much of the rest of munster and rain for the Cork urban area!

More generally, unless Arpege is correct, the tendency on other models to have the low making good progress north is bad news for everyone. Its curtains for us down here, but its probably bad news for most wherever you are. The further south the low stays the more the cold pool stays in place and mixes in with the precipitation as the low is sent packing (ideally south eastwards)

At the moment taken all the forecasting models in account Anyone in the Midlands should prepare for significant snow accumulations, at this stage the risk here is highest.

Northwards From Clare, Limerick, Dublin if you where to draw a line.

Southwards if you draw a line from South Mayo, South Sligo, Cavan, Belfast. These areas do look the most likely.

Areas further north also look like they could see some moderate accumulations.

If there are no big changes in models by the morning then orange level warnings will be issued much of Connacht, Leinster and parts of Ulster.

There has been a big escalation in organising meetings tomorrow morning with the local authorities and The National Directorate for Fire and Emergency Management so I do think red warnings will come.

Away from the weekend they will also be taken into consideration the effects conditions will have next week with very low temperature by day and night which is dangerous for a country that is not use to these conditions.

I'd say based on the criteria used and some of the forecasts, it looks almost certain of some red level warnings over the next week

Tempt fate by getting enough breakfast food to feed them on Sunday morning, sure way to deflect the weather.

12Z GFS Connaught getting burried

This sounding at 00:00 Saturday night location kilbeggan strongly supports snowfall with a high likelihood of snow reaching the ground intact. The combination of surface temperatures at freezing, a fully saturated column, and a freezing layer down to the surface makes this an ideal profile for snow.

I'm following thread from the start. I'm in west Dublin, and still have no idea what to be praying for, stay south, move north? There's gonna be a north/south dividing line between rain and snow?

Look at this sequence, the cold air aloft stays to the north. @YanSno I do agree that (forecast) sounding looks good, I just don't see how the surface temperatures can be cold enough with a strong easterly coming from an Atlantic low with lots of mixing as the occluded front to the north would indicate

GFS 12z, stuck to it's guns really. Slower to arrive which gives a tease that maybe it was trending south but it still reached a similar northern extent of the warmer air.

If GFS gets this, we need likely an impossible shift south for most of the bottom half of the country to join in the main action, Connaught and Ulster the sweet spot for heavy snow. As it pivots and cold air recirculates, chances for some other places then. ECM 6z kept things colder further south. ICON 12z better than the GFS in terms of the northern boundary but by very little.

I'd say those in the likes of Cork need a miracle at this stage for anything other than a brief short bout of preceding snow, before sitting put and waiting for the pivot. People are going to need the likes of the ARPEGE to pull this out of the bag.

EDIT: GEM also similar to GFS and ICON. Think we are approaching D-day, if ECM and UKMO are similar.

that would be spot on for me Yan Sno, thank you very much 🤩🤞

Some snow flurries today

Gem is a touch further north

vs

As someone who wants any excuse not to have to go to back to work on Monday, how's West Dublin shaping up?

Huh???