Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Have not been looking at this thread in a bit but some really interesting opinions. IMO I think we are in for a decade of pain increases in both prices and rent I feel for anyone under 30 trying to plan for their future. We don't have enough housing to either buy or.and rent and our current immigration policy will mean that we will need more and more housing (60k +) for at least the next decade just to deal with our current population size. So we are in the short to medium term prices for both rent and to buy will remain high.

The government should be buying 2nd hand housing as its cheaper than new houses and putting people who are on HAP into these, I think its crazy that there is social housing being built out in the likes of Howth worth 900k and upwards that people who are sitting on their asses will be getting access to before those of us who work. Its time some priority was given to those who contribute to the taxes here. If the government offered say an amnesty on CGT on people selling 2nd hand rental homes to the the state for a fair price (no bidding against the public). they would get them at a reasonable price the landlord gets away with CGT and the state can house someone who needs housing at a cheaper price point and the state has an asset that can be used going into the future.. Win/Win/Win

All new homes should be put up for sale / rent in the private market and existing dwelling should be used for those who are on HAP over the next 10 years the government should look at all options including starting a public sector building company to build, offering large incentives to other builders from other countries to come in and build a blitz of housing over the next 4/5 years and of course getting larger and larger amounts of modular homes built on scale to house those who needs housing.

After we have caught up or over the next decade our country should be weened off HAP and Help to buy and other drains on the tax payers. Also the question has to be asked why are the lefties dictating housing policy with regards to who has first choice? Our housing policy is actively dissuading people from working as they lose to much when they start working. Also the government need to keep its housing stock in their own hands and not let people get them on the cheap or for free which has happened before when someone is gone from a house that was given to them by the state then that house should be used for the next person needing it and not given to the kids of the person gone before. This will all take time but it would see rents and prices drop it would also mean people working their asses off get priority.

Lets be clear there is no easy answers out there

I think we are in agreement. I am making the point that they should not be buying new dwellings which are always more expensive then 2nd hand homes. I agree with them pumping the money in but if housing was in itself in isolation they could do this but what do you think would happen to any government who over night stopped HAP, help to buy and the all the rest - they would go the way of the greens so any self serving politician (so basically all of them) wont do this there is a higher likelihood of us all winning the lotto at the same time. Once again I agree with those working they should be prioritized - this is the real shame of what's happening you get up and work and you struggle to move out of your parents then if you sit on your a$$ chuck out a few kids there you go there's a gaff for free beside mumsy in Howth for almost a million - talk about moral hazard.

The only real way out is to build and I have advocated that the state should be ramping up modular homes - cheaper and faster to build and doing things like letting builders/plasterers/laborers/sparks/plumbers (basically the people needed to build) from other countries give them a 5 year deal where they pay zero tax but they have to leave when they are finished or they start paying tax after this - I know for people working and paying tax here may think this seems unfair but housing is gone beyond a crisis in Ireland and we need to find some levers to make it more palpable for our younger cohort to live and stay in the country and if those on the housing/HAP have an issue with modular then stay on the street the day of getting a gaff beside mumsy should be gone. People are entitled to a roof over their head but not one that costs the tax payer a million or so and not one that the vast majority of tax payers can not afford to get themselves. The tail is wagging the dog here.

Jesus. If the average list price in Dublin increases by an average of 6.5% over the next 2 years it'll be more than half a million quid.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0102/1488224-house-prices-up-9-in-2024/

If an employer in Blackrock paid the same as an employer in Mullingar, then nobody would work in Blackrock and travel from Mullingar.

The wages must reflect either the cost of travel or the cost of housing in order to retain employees. When govt subsidises housing costs in those areas they are indirectly subsidising employers themselves as they can pay less and still get employees.

There isnt a stipulation that says if you live in subsidised housing in Blackrock, you must work in Blackrock.

Some of those in subsidised housing dont work at all, so the impact of wages on a business from social housing in the area really isnt a major factor.

The wages a company will pay will be primarily based on market rates for the job and the cost of commercial rents in the area.

Google wont be adjusting their pay scales based on social housing costs in Ringsend, for example.

If soneone is working for Google as an engineer for example, they wont qualify for social housing.

Private rents and costs are a factor, but that is it.

Agreed. And so Google staff costs arent affected by the cost of social housing in the locality.

Of course they are.

Did you not know for example, that if you are one of your Google engineers in Dublin and they move you and your role to New York, that you will be paid a lot more? Have you ever lived outside of Ireland? Lots of places are much cheaper to live, and lots are much more expensive. The salaries paid will reflect that.

And would the engineer qualify for social housing in the US, when they moved to Manhattan on their higher salary?

We arent talking about the private market here, we are talking about the cost of social housing.

I agree.

I think the confusion here is that I was responding to a poster who said private employers should pay their staff more, so that the state doesnt need to subsidise social housing in the area that the employer is located.

My example of Google is that firstly, Google staff (broadly) dont qualify for social housing, so the cost of it is irrelevant to their staff.

Secondly, if Google were to pay their staff a higher salary as the poster suggested, the cost of social housing in Ringsend/Irishtown and Grand Canal Dock would actually increase, not decrease, as DCC would now be competing with higher paid private employees for limited housing stock, primarily delivered by private landlords.

Google is a massive red herring here - social housing is for lower incomes, and the employers who get subsidies indirectly are those employing people on lower wages. Think shops, cafes, bars, restaurants and factories.

Social housing and HAP mean these low paid employees can afford to live and work in these areas, and the employers no longer need to be competitive on pay. Its a subsidy for bad employers

If the employees are fairly compensated they do not need social housing in the first place, and the state no longer need to provide social housing for them. Which is expected in the most affluent areas of the city really

A two hour commute each way is not the end of the world

A 4hr commute daily is nightmarish. Presuming that you instead meant a 2hr commute total (1hr each way), that's still on the high side.

But the original point being argued was that if we got rid of HAP in desirable areas, that instead of rents dropping due to no more state subsidies, rent would remain as so many people want to rent in these places (e.g. Blackrock as poster mentioned), and then those working low income jobs in that area would lose out. In reality, the employer loses out as they can no longer offer poor wages - either wages increase to make up the increased housing costs or they go out of business. That's just like, the free market man

I don't think there is a need to get builders from other countries.

In any community groups I am in, any single small job people request done, they get swamped by responses from tradesmen. I am talking even really small jobs. Tradesmen are competing for any jobs now. No shortage. Plasterers, painters, plumbers etc don't seem to be very busy. Similarly I see carpenters looking for work.

Well you must be living somewhere completely different to me any time I need any tradesmen there always seems to be a delay as they are out the door busy.