Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

95% of support, or any other high nrs in an election or referendum, where the voters are held literally at gunpoint or other form of blackmail, can never be relied on. And all of Putins so called "election's & Referendums (Crimea for example) were held under duress.

Another massive criminal attack on Ukraine's energy system overnight. No doubt another round of condemnation by Western politicians followed by minimal action. Horrible way for Ukrainians to face Christmas. Let's hope this is the last year of the "hot" phase of the war. Compromises will have to be made, but they can be put right in time. A curse on Russia and may it last generations

”Hopeful”

As usual it's complicated, Ukraine has no intention of leaving it's people behind..

But retaking the Donbass or Crimes in fully contested combat would as stupid for the Ukrainians to try as it was for the Russians..

And while it's easy to say no compromise, or compromise and acquiesce, it'll be up to Ukraine and it's gov to decide what they're doing - ultimately Russia is creaking at the seams - but could keep creaking for a long time , or collapse in the morning.. and hopefully Ukraine leaders accurately knows their own position..

The war would have been over already if it weren't for north Korean artillery - and I don't think that was really factored in ..

I was watching a clip about the Soviets in Afghanistan last night and a figure popped up stating 30% of the forces were from Ukraine, another 30% from Russia and the rest were from other Soviet states and Warsaw Bloc. Supposedly Hungary had an oversized representation relative to their population.

You would think the US would be siding with such an important experienced chunk of the former enemy to counter Putin's Russia! But no, Trump still thinks Putin is to be looked up to, much strong, much stonk!

His talking about coveting the Panama canal and "buying" Greenland and what's more worrying is he has a sizable portion of the US population nodding along with him. Down the road Trump's admiration for Putin will force a NATO fracture.

He says he wants NATO to up defense spending, but in his lizard brain he thinks that will go to buying US arms when his Putin worship will drive NATO nations towards upping reequipping their defense industry. There's a few soon to be closed VW plants that can be repurposed to the arms industry.

A cold poker, repeatedly, is the traditional Russian preference, isn't it? And we know Putin loves his Russian traditions.

This, IMO, is where Putin so catastrophically miscalculated. He gambled big on his 3-day run to Kyyv and lost. Now, like all good gamblers, he's betting everything he has, things he hasn't and whatever he can scrounge or steal from family and friends on trying to win back his losses.

If he'd stuck to simple meddling in EU and US elections, funding the MAGA/AfD/FN/Georgia Dream/Brexit loons and cutting cables, half the population of the West would have paid scant attention, even lent him tacit support. Instead, he has exposed the depravity of his whole rotten empire, and galvanised opposition against everything Russian even where there was no real threat before.

We're at the stage where Zelenskyy/Ukraine can say to anyone who tries to ram through a "peace" deal based solely on demilitarising Ukrainian oblasts: "Thanks - but no thanks. Demilitarise the neighbouring Russian oblasts as well or we'll do it ourselves."

From the comments made in public by US spokesmen on both sides of their divide, I don't think they understand the extent to which their reluctance to "escalate" the situation over three years has propelled Ukraine towards a real independence. Not just political indepenence, but pouring all their creativity into fast-tracking their own military industry - one that isn't hobbled by timid foreign governments saying they can't have this weapon or can only use that one against these targets.

While manpower will remain a significant challenge for Urkaine for the foreseeable future, I think 2025 will see every other aspect of the conflict tilt ever more in Ukraine's favour. Regardless of how many devastated km² Russian claims to control, Ukraine will be able to target more and more infrastructure and logistical hubs far behind the front line, until the conflict becomes all cost and no benefit for Russia and friends.

In such a scenario, the US could easily find itself becoming irrelevant, as other local actors move faster than Trump to help Ukraine achieve a decisive victory … and reap the considerable post-conflict rewards.

The depletion of the Soviet era stock is very evident on the battlefield now, and the use of civilian vehicles as replacements pretty much shows they've gone through the bottom of the barrel.

Putin's projection of power since 2008 has been mostly reliant on moth balled soviet stock being dusted off so a Ukrainian victory may well come when Russia implodes.

An article from 18th November is hardly where things are at "right now". Yes, Ukraine is "slowly losing ground" - but that's been the case for over a year, and it's so slow, that Russia still hasn't re-taken what it lost the year before. Meanwhile, Russia has lost part of Russia and not been able to take it back. Russian has lost it's Black Sea Fleet and hasn't been able to re-build it. Russia has lost three quarters of a million fit-for-combat servicemen and doesn't look anywhere close to being able to breed new troops. And Russia has lost oil refineries, storage tanks, export pipelines and tankers with little prospect of replacing them in the foreseeable future.

That's a hell of a lot of losing on the Russian side, all for the sake of a few square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, land there's no guarantee they'll be able to keep or usefully exploit in a year's time.

Another good old Ruzzian tradition: the knout. When Peter the Great was torturing the Streltsi, many of them received so many strokes that their backs were messes of blood and torn flesh. Then red-hot pokers were used to probe the wounds.