Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Which policies could we copy from Denmark?

None of the main 3 parties here will move that far to the right on asylum immigration.

FG are as far to the (centre) right as it gets here.

I don't think that "far-right" or "conspiracy theory" is working as well as it used to as a means of dismissing an argument. Someone replied to me above with a begging the question fallacy by invoking the Great Replacement. However, we don't need to resort to such a theory to explain why they state is importing people in such great numbers. There is a simple economic explanation (albeit, a sinister one), and I think most reasonable people can see that.

Just as an aside, I've always been very interested in what is often deemed "conspiracy theory". It's not that I believe in them, but rather that I find the idea of them to be intriguing. In general most of them fall apart because there are far more simple explanations for why things happen as they do. Using the label of "conspiracy theory" to dismiss a genuine grievance is a monstrously dishonest and intellectually vacuous tactic

With regards to immigration, the powers that be will actually admit why they want mass immigration. How many times has a politicians said something like "our economy would collapse without immigration." No need for dark cabals here.

Most of the immigration to Ireland is entirely legal, and the arrivals can and do work. There is indeed a lot of immigration of people who cannot work legally, but these people do add to economic growth by their mere presence here. For example, they require accommodation, food, medical care and any number of other things, and this contributes to GDP growth. Illegal immigrants do, unfortunately, generate a lot of wealth for some parties. Also, a lot of these illegals do work, albeit for cash in hand, though I have no figures in that regard.

"The granting of visas for skilled labour is about keeping companies going and is causing wages to not rise."

I agree.

The main center left party in Denmark, their equivalent of Labour, were the ones who brought in most of those asylum policy measures. Political parties will implement policies that the electorate tells them to, eventually.

It just takes enough people telling the politicians what they want, repeatedly. Which is why raising awareness of this issue, and discussing it, is so important.

FG are also nowhere near the strictest party on immigration in Ireland currently - it would go II/Aontu/FF/SF/FG/LAB/SocDem/Green/PBP, in that order of desire/action to restrict it.

The main reason FG have been so slow to restrict the numbers of asylum seekers arriving, to tie it back into this thread, is large scale unskilled migration benefits business owners (cheap labour) and landlords (far more competition for housing, from people with lower quality expectations) hugely. They're the two segments of society that actually gain from it. And they're two key planks of FG's support base.

"We need more retail staff, more nurses, more hospitality staff, more bus drivers, more taxi drivers, more construction staff and so on."

I'm not having a go at you here, but I think that this line of thinking is demonstrative of the root of the problem that Ireland faces. If the economy has grown to the point where there are vacancies on that level, then does it not imply that the economy has grown beyond the capacity of its host country to support?

The natives (the Irish) are not filling those positions because there are not enough of us, and it seems that the system can only be maintained through constant, enormous levels of immigration. This, to me, is the flaw of the infinite growth system. For how much longer can this be maintained, and what is the cost of maintaining it?

Supply and demand are fairly basic principles of economics, not a conspiracy theory.

More humans in competition for low skilled jobs = worse working conditions and worse salaries.

More humans in competition and demand for housing = higher rent prices and worse accomodation quality.

Those are just facts.

Trying to equate nurses or bus drivers with unskilled asylum seekers is a classic moving of the goal posts - nobody is saying we should restrict the numbers of skilled immigrants doing essential jobs, who arrive on work permits. They're an entirely different, and far more beneficial for the country, group.

Unqualified, unvetted, asylum seekers arriving illegally by the tens of thousands, and requiring housing provided by the state, are the problem - and are what people are calling to be reduced significantly, in this thread and elsewhere.

In this thread in particular because of the positive impact on the housing market reducing asylum seeker numbers by 20,000 or so a year (which is entirely possible based on the Denmark example) would have. And in using that €1bn+ a year spent on them to better impact the housing crisis.

FG, and Helen McEntee, have been in control of our immigration system for the last 5 years. Under their control we have the highest numbers of asylum seekers being accepted into the state ever in the year 2024. FG can say whatever they want in their manifesto, but the idea that they'll be tough on immigration just isn't backed up by real world actions.

if the resident irish were filling those shortages, we wouldnt need the same level of immigration; They are not, so we do

An interesting point that needs to be examined further

One of FG's first policies was dole cheats cheat us all.

Carers allowance was targeted as part of that program if I'm not mistaken which allowed a relative to take care of a sick/elderly family member for a total cost roughly €250 p/w to the state

Now many of these are herded into homes that might cost 2500 p/w or private companies doing home help at much greater cost

Guess who invested heavily in these business, Guess where these businesses are sourcing labour. Guess who's paying for it

FG are not lying when they say there business friendly, that does not mean its good for the population, the taxpayer etc

Exactly. State should work to improve work conditions and pay for the Irish nurses and doctors. Stop pumping money in agencies and middle management. Plus I don't remember seeing a Philippino or Indian nurse living here on their own, usually one gets in, 3 more relatives follow.

Of the 150k immgrants that arrived into Ireland in the 12 months to April 2024, less than 20k were asylum seekers.

13% of the total arrivals isnt a marker that supports low skilled immigration as a principle motive for the govts immigration policy.

"If you look at the population today in the capital, we are chronically under manned, in terms of services. That wont be fixed without hiring more people."

What's wrong with having a sparsely populated country?

I could flip this around and say that services are chronically over subscribed. That is to say, there are too many people. Hiring more people will increase demand for services in an of itself because more people will be needed to fill the positions. If there were less people, the demand would fall, but that's never raised because it goes against the idea the economy must grow in perpetuity.

I'm not calling you out personally here, but I cannot understand how anyone would look at Dublin and conclude that the problem is a lack of people. The public transport is packed, the M50 is jammed every day, the streets are teeming with people and, of course, accommodation is not to be had.

Obviously we need to maintain some level of population here, but why is the answer always immigration? Why can we not pursue policy that would encourage Irish people to have more children? If we had a birth rate of something close to that magic number of 2.1, there would be little need for immigration save for a healthy coming and going of people.

I dont disagree with incentives for people to have more children here, but at the same time, we will always need an immigrant workforce to grow; just like every other city on the planet.

Infinite growth will always be the end goal, so long as the dollar keeps the world turning. Thats the truth of it.

Infinite growth cannot be sustained forever. We live on a finite planet.

Personally I love that Dublin is teeming with people, particularly our new immigrant friends. The place feels incredibly alive and international. In the last decade I've made so many international friends, it's been brilliant.

The only real big issues I come across day to day really people wise is local scrotes. And they're all Irish. If the Great Replacement Theory could replace them with some international tech workers that would be great.

I'm sure I've said this to you before but the plan is to import people to build houses and then import more people to build their houses, right?

And in your head this sounds sustainable?

Or do you just believe this is the way it is and we just have to accept we will all be living in overcrowded shanty towns eventually with people riding on the roofs of buses and trains and field hospitals for bursting A&Es?