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Forming the next Irish Government - policies and personalities

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,723 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    That's some pretty weak sauce Sam.

    "The incoming TDs might not know what they are doing" - but at least they have a mandate from the people, as opposed to a dissolved Dail whose mandate has expired. Constitutionally the dissolved Dail cannot nominate anyone to any role, or indeed take any action at all - this is as it should be.

    Post edited by Hotblack Desiato on

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,427 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    No it doesn't. It a NEW Dail elected by the people. The CC while technically neutral has still to agree with government the putting of there program through the Dail.

    If elected by the old assembly it would usually be in the gift of the previous government which might be the new opposition. Pressure could be applied just like in Paddy Hillary whennhe was President for the CC to stime and obstruct a new government. You could have a situation where if numbers were tight the CC could resign to and join the opposition benches.

    Any government and dail needs to have confidence in who is elected CC.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Do you think the FG TDs are still enchanted by Simon after an election campaign in which FG went from the clear leaders to a poor second place, 10 seats behind FF, barely ahead of the Shinners?

    If so, they are the only ones.

    Of course they will keep their opinions to themselves, at least until the jobs have been distributed, but the vote for CC is a perfect opportunity to send a message without responsibility.

    Micheál has a different dilemma - how to stop SOF or JMcG or now MMoynihan from diluting FF's voting strength.

    Shane Ross doesn't miss this opportunity to put the boot into Verona in the Sindo. Payback for the time he was Transport Minister and she actually knew about transport. Of course, this will only boost Verona's chances. Which Blueshirt could resist the opportunity to stick it to Shane Ross?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,408 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The election of the CC is by secret ballot of all TDs. It is not in the gift of the Gov - except that they have a majority in the Dail, but those putting their name forward may or may not be members of the Gov.

    Under current rules, the CC of the outgoing Dail is returned unopposed and so is unelected in the new Dail, which I would question, since it reduces the representation in the constituency that he represents. Now if he is re-elected, that might not be a problem.

    However, if he is elected by the outgoing Dail, all constituencies are represented as drawn.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,873 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The CC represents and is the Chairperson of the Dáil and thus should be elected by the actual, existing Dáil. Your suggestion would undermine any sense of legitimacy of the role.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Your suggestion is nonsensical and unworkable.

    The outgoing Dáil has no authority or democratic mandate to impose its choice of CC on the next Dáil. If this absurd notion was implemented, the first item on the agenda of the new Dáil would be a motion of no confidence in any imposter who had the audacity to claim the chair of the new Dáil on this basis.

    The Constitutional guarantee that the CC is deemed elected to the next Dáil helps to keep the CC above politics. No one has been so foolish as to propose a referendum to remove this sensible safeguard although it means that the CC's constituents have one less TD to pester about their personal interests. So what?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,965 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    That's a pretty tenuous argument.

    Is there anything else new TDs should be barred from in case they don't know what they're doing? Sitting on committees? Being ministers?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Is your suggestion too that the CC doesn't count as a constituency TD? But is 1 extra? What happens if the CC steps down midway through a term. Do they just disappear? Or are they back as a TD, and now a constituency has 1 extra seat?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Micheál has a different dilemma - how to stop SOF or JMcG or now MMoynihan from diluting FF's voting strength

    If he really wants Fair Verona as CC isn't it a case of the more the merrier of his own men putting themselves forward?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    If you mean that a plethora of FF candidates for CC would split the FF vote so no FF’er is elected, that won’t happen if all FF TDs vote for party colleagues straight down the line (it's STV). All 48 FF votes would eventually transfer to the last FF candidate standing. If all FG votes eventually transferred to that remaining FF'er, they would be elected (unless some other candidate miraculously mustered all remaining 88 votes).

    Of course, that is exactly what Simon and Micheál don't want.

    If Verona or anyone outside FF/FG gets it, then FF&FG combined need only one more vote to elect Micheál as Taoiseach. After that, there'll be no shortage of Independents willing to sell their votes for the benefit of their constituents (dishonorable, you say? They're all at it - and they wouldn't last long otherwise).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    (it's STV). All 48 FF votes would eventually transfer to the last FF candidate standing.

    Oh right didn't know that.

    If Verona or anyone outside FF/FG gets it, then FF&FG combined need only one more vote to elect Micheál as Taoiseach. After that, there'll be no shortage of Independents willing to sell their votes

    Well I mean they're only two short as it is; I'm not sure why FFG aren't looking to deal with the 6 or 7 most parish-pump-oriented independents on a one-to-one basis, rather than trying to reach an agreement with this problematic Regional Group.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,427 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    FG are backing VM canditacey it seems. If the regional independents back her she will have 50+ vote. However some of these may vote for a FF canditate. The SF canditate will have the SF and PBP/S vote and a couple more.

    A lot will depend on the Green, Labour and SD vote. Do they vote for the SF canditate and hope the RI swing behind the SF canditate. If they back VM she will probably get the CC position

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,576 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    does the secret ballot for CC really benefit the public?

    look at the vote that apparently didnt go the govs way

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/surprise-defeat-for-government-as-catherine-connolly-becomes-leas-cheann-comhairle-1.4311706

    A Government TD said they changed their mind after being “struck” by Ms Connolly’s comments about there never having been a female Leas Cheann Comhairle."

    Is that real reason? What games were being played we dont know.

    Post edited by expectationlost on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,978 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The majority of the FG TDs have been elected for the first time, they are establishing themselves, they only know Simon. That makes him the most secure of the political party leaders. Some of the others are only one election in the Dail themselves. Paschal is the only likely threat, and he seems happy.

    Can you tell me which FG TDs are likely to be discontent? Other than some musings of your own, there isn't a sign of it anywhere.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    The new FG TDs are not neophytes who "only know Simon". Almost all are longstanding party members who have been elected before, some many times, just not to the Dáil. On Wednesday they will have their only opportunity to cast a secret ballot. And it looks like FG will not put forward a candidate It sounds like Simon wants FG to back Verona, an FG renegade (for reasons I explained) and Micheál wants his troops to do likewise but some of his TDs covet the prize for themselves. Laughably, SO'F thinks he offers "stability" by saying he will resign mid-term (i.e. give the government another headache just as Simon and Micheál undertake their switcher!)

    I agree Simon's position is safe - regardless of who is elected CC - because FG are stuck with him for the time being. Perhaps collectively they still believe in their new Leader's new clothes but I credit them with more cop-on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,576 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    He thinks Verona is a sacrificial lamb - a ploy for Ministerial jobs. Nonsense.

    And this is ludicrous

    Harris has already said Fine Gael will not impose a whip on its TDs in the vote, 

    As if a whip can apply to a secret ballot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    The media (Senan Moloney) finally wakes up to what is happening on the CC.

    Simon and Micheál are backing Verona, who went to see them both before announcing her candidature.


    Humiliating for Simon that FG can’t nominate a candidate but MM has a trickier hand to play at the FF party meeting today. Surely his troops understand why FF needs Verona to be CC? But SOF and JMcG are not deterred and now MMoynihan is under pressure to block them both. Sparks will fly behind FF’s closed doors and secrecy will prevail in tomorrow’s vote but the transfers will tell a tale.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Seán Ó'Fearghaíl has confirmed this morning on RnaG that FF and FG leaders are advising their TDs to back Verona…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭rock22


    @Caquas " Surely his troops understand why FF needs Verona to be CC? "

    But do they? If a government TD becomes CC then it leaves the FF and FG a couple of seats below a majority. But that is not taking into account the ex FG or FF independents who will always vote with the government. The only danger for both FF and FG is discipline in their own parties as they cannot afford one of their own TDs breaking ranks. But otherwise it is very hard to see the government losing a vote of confidence .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,978 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    How is it humiliating for Simon? Your analysis is generally so far off the mark that it is fantastical.

    • Majority required for government reduced from 88 to 87
    • Independents probably bought off with CC instead of full Ministry giving 7 to FG instead of 6
    • FG gene-pool independent taken off the pitch for next election
    • Probable seat gain for FG in Wexford next time out as a result.

    Could you explain why this is humiliating for Simon? Sure, some of it might not transpire, but from the perspective of now, he has put those gains in play.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    No need to repeat back to me the reasons why Verona is running and will get FF/FG support. I explained all that here last week, before anyone in the media and my analysis was spot on.

    It's humiliating that, for the first time in our history, a Taoiseach can't even say which way he will vote when the Dáil meets tomorrow. But Harris knows no shame. He achieved absolutely nothing as a Minister but was first out of the door to claim the top job when Leo abandoned ship. He brazened it out when Patrick O'Donovan exposed him as the leaker from Cabinet (and what an effective leak that was - the other Simon never recovered!). Harris is an Emperor prancing around in his new clothes, laying claim to the Office of Taoiseach after a car-crash campaign while the media applaud. His nakedness will be plain to see when Michael Lowry becomes the lynch-pin of the next Government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    You explain exactly why FF / FG needs Verona and then reach precisely the wrong conclusion. MM can only hope your "logic" does not prevail among his TDs.

    The arithmetic is much tighter than the media suggest - as I explained, if Verona is CC, they need only one vote for a bare majority. But as you say, if an FF/FG gets to be CC, they will need two - a massive difference. Not just twice as many, it means coordination between at least two Independents. A weekly Calvary for the Chief Whip.

    I expect the next Government will face no confidence motions before long but will be able to face them down. People have forgotten that Leo was forced to call an early election in 2020 because his government was about to lose a vote of no confidence. No one remembers the Minister whose performance was about to be condemned by Dáil Éireann. Hint: he was then the Health Minister and he was as useless then as he was during the pandemic which arrived here just after we voted in February 2020.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Ivan Yates was the first person I heard mention Verona Murphy for CC. That was on his podcast, released 10 days ago. He's had a good few weeks with his predictions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,978 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Why is it humiliating that he won't say which way he will vote?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,723 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Yes it's just more wishful thinking mixed with outright nonsense.

    FG have no desire for one of their number to become CC, it doesn't help their Dail arithmetic and there is no benefit to the party in having the role.

    FF the same, apart from a couple of self-aggrandising troublemakers. Although they can spare a TD more easily than FG can, it still doesn't help the government formation numbers.

    FG and FF will be pushing hard to keep all cabinet posts for themselves, no independents. Independent ministers have been generally useless.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,066 ✭✭✭pureza




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    It is humiliating by any Taoiseach with a modicum of self-respect not to be able to show leadership in government. Now we have a Taoiseach and party "leader" who can't even show leadership to his own TDs in the new Dáil's very first vote.

    But you may have a point - he is beyond shaming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Thanks, I hadn't heard that - again Ivan ahead of the other media. I've now subscribed to the podcast.

    I think he's right that Lowry won't "send an invoice" 🤑 He'll have far more influence from the backbenches if he can keep his group together, with Verona as CC and Sean Canney as his eyes and ears at Cabinet. Tomorrow will tell the tale.

    Could this nonsense of rotating Taoiseach actually be a game by FF to leave an FG Taoiseach to be blamed for everything the government does in the run-up to the next election?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭Caquas


    You call it nonsense but you don't even understand what I wrote.

    One more try - what is humiliating is that the Leader of Fine Gael and currently the Head of our Government can't show leadership to his own troops in the Dáil's first vote. If you think that won't diminish his dwindling credibility and tarnish his leadership, you lack a basic sense of dignity.

    And here is nonsense of a high order from you

    FG have no desire for one of their number to become CC

    As everyone know, there would be a stampede of FG TDs looking to be nominated CC if they had the numbers i.e. if people hadn't been turned off by their election campaign. There are already two FF candidates and a third in the wings because they have 10 more TDs and others might back them. You say they're "self-aggrandising troublemakers" - no wonder they appeal to the Independents and the Left!

    I see now that MM gave leadership to his party and told them to back Verona. Will Simon finally bite the bullet tonight?

    Of course, what happens in the secrecy of the Dáil division lobbies tomorrow may tell another tale.



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