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The End of Assad? Syrian Rebels enter the outskirts of Aleppo for the first time since 2016

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I wouldn't be so quick to paint it like that…Big bad ISIS back in power, repeating their atrocities from the past. Whatever power structure will emerge when the fighting is finished, will have to be acceptable to the outside world, no one wants either an ISIS or Taliban state. Thats not going to work. Remember, ISIS killed thousands of Syrians too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    It all depends on where the action is taking place in Syria..Pro Assad regions, anti-Assad regions. Basically, the further away from the coast, the weaker the support for Assad. So far, HTS have only met anti-Assad places, Aleppo, Idlib etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    My guess is that they will not get a complete free pass, and just take over all of Syria, as they have been doing up to now, but we will see.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    The Russian Embassy will be one of the prime targets for HTS. Russians killed too many Syrians, destroyed too many towns villlages and cities, from the safety of the air. There will not be any mercy shown to any Russians still there when and if HTS arrive, diplomatic immunity be dammed .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    No but the Taliban did a lot of deals and just walked across Afghanistan, took over.

    This deals and more reasonable behaviour is on display now but they are still shaved upper lip wild beard types, a bad combination to see



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Deal? With the Russians? Not a hope after what the Russians have done to the anti Assad forces, and Syrians in general since they arrived in Syria. Since they first arrived, the Russian Embassy has been not the most targeted building in Damascus, but for sure, you wouldn't want to be living near it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,833 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,158 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    image.png

    I notice that a private jet from Abu Dhabi (pro-Assad) has recently touched down in Damascus earlier.

    Wonder is someone planning an escape route…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, you are right. I had forgotten about that. That was as near to a revolution as could happen there. That was over the issue of why the Al-Saud family had complete control over the holy sites, and it failed. Be interesting if its an issue that will arise again….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Mossad Commentary, an Israeli account, not Mossad, but always in the know saying reports of Assad having left coming in.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,086 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    For what reason are we even comparing the two. They are nothing alike.

    It's like wondering why France didn't kick off when Yugoslavia did.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,833 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I think the big test will be if we see lots of Russian transport planes coming in.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭monseiur


    You obviously failed to notice the elephant in the room - the good old USA. Saudi Arabia are in the pocket of the Yanks so they are above reproach 😢 The US have been meddling in the affairs of the Middle East for decades……..for one simple reason their black gold a.k OIL They bankrolled, trained & armed Osama Bin Laden & Co. fighting with the Mujaheddin against the Russians in Afghanistan (Strange but true!) A blind man could see that they are in the background pulling the strings in the current rebel fight back in Syria - not because they love them but they share a common enemy…Russia.

    Syria was no utopia under Assad but was paradise compared to what the future holds….think Islamic extremism and all that it entails.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Yes, I had forgotten about that and the incidences you describe. Grayson also mentioned it. So we wait and see where they will fit in the Syrian jig-saw puzzle when the dust settles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,185 ✭✭✭✭volchitsa


    No idea how any of that contradicts anything I said.

    I think it's quite possible the US are involved behind the scenes with what's going on in Syria - although I suspect that if they are doing anything very much, Trump will take great pleasure in making that public when he gets into office. He's very pro Israel and Israel get on relatively well with Assad, so will likely be worried about what might replace him.

    And I think we all know of the links between Saudi Arabia and the US.

    "If a woman cannot stand in a public space and say, without fear of consequences, that men cannot be women, then women have no rights at all." Helen Joyce



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭Perseverance The Second


    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1865101572696355203

    The Russian have evacuated their S-400 long-range SAM battery from Khmeimim Air Base down to the Port of Tartus. This certainly reveals Russia's opinions on the SAA and the likelihood of them getting subsequently attacked



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    The deal that Trump made with the Taliban, without involving the Afghan government dammed it from the start.. the only get out clause in the contract was that if the Taliban failed to keep any of the conditions they had agreed, changes could be made. Since several years before they pulled out, the US had been handing more and more of the running of the Country to the Afghan Government, while still picking up the tab. Once the Trump deal had been made, the US had steadily been reducing its military and administrative presence, so basically, it was Afghans who were running the show. When the Taliban rolled into Afghanistan, the only ones who put up any resistance were Afghan special forces, then the Government bailed out, and without the US military back-up, that finished it, and ancient Afghan clan and family connections took over, as they had for centuries and were ingrained. The US didn't lose in Afghanistan, Afghans lost Afghanistan, If the US went back there again, they would roll through it as fast as they did after 2011.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,378 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    How much longer would it of taken the western countries if they had of stayed in Afghanistan in your opinion for it to have thrown off the shackles of the Taliban influence? Also if they did do you think the people of Afghanistan would fight harder to keep the Taliban out this time round?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    What the west held were islands in a Taliban sea.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭Danzy




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,980 ✭✭✭buried


    Bullet The Blue Shirts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Seems he is in Tehran for a meeting, return flight expected.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,833 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    This is collapsing and almost a speed run rate

    The family appear to have fled or taking a 'holiday' but Assad himself appears to still be in Damascus.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,086 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Rolled through yes. But actually secured the place no.

    You can invade and you can rule but surely nobody knows better than the Irish that you won't "win" with a military takeover.

    America was never gonna hold Afghanistan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,833 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,949 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    With the rebels gains in the East and South of the country, any defence of Damascus just got a lot more difficult. In effect the opposition can move on multiple fronts towards the capital.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,106 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Incredible the momentum of the last 24 hours. They completely out fought the regime at Hama and are now on the cusp of taking Holms. They'll cut the regime in two. I wonder will they cross the mountains to the coastal region first or take on Damascus.

    Considering the Russian asset's near the coast I hope they go there first but with Daraa (population a million) falling and gains south of Damascus they might want to link up with them ASAP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,949 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    I imagine they will head towards the capital. The terrain is less challenging than towards the coast. The Russians have a considerable amount of equipment in Latakia, which they might use to defend their bases even if they aren't too committed to Assad. Also the regime has genuine support among some of the coastal populations. A particularly bloody battle might quickly develop severe sectarian tones. At the moment the rebels can paint themselves as somewhat more moderate in nature than previous opposition groups. Imagine there might be a few pragmatic Alawite leaders that would be willing to cut a deal in the event of a complete Assad regime collapse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,165 ✭✭✭jmreire


    The US were there long enough and spent enough cash to completely make over Afghanstan, had the Taliban been eliminated, but they weren't. The Taliban are a product of Pakistan's Madrassa's, and behind the scenes Pakistan were always pulling the strings. How else were the Taliban not only surviving, but thriving during those 20 years exile? Pakistan doesn't want a strong successful Afghanistan as a neighbour. And as a plus, they were giving the US a poke in the eye.

    As for Afghanistan itself…beautiful rugged hard Country, and with a hardy population to match. A lovely people to know and befriend. They have their own way of doing things going back through the ages, and computer age or not, they still do things the old way, especially in the rural areas. The Country is a patchwork quilt of different clans and family's, inter-connected. And it was this which allowed the Taliban to move so far and so fast, there was no coordinated or organised opposition.Everyone tbelieved that the agreement Trump signed would be kept by the Taliban.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,106 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    The Russians and Assad's artillery are bombing the **** out of the country side around Holms. They're still trying to slow them down.

    The US state department just asked all citizens to leave Syria.



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