The End of Assad? Syrian Rebels enter the outskirts of Aleppo for the first time since 2016

I think that's a questionable source and said the same almost word for word a couple of days ago.

Jordan has closed one of its border crossings with Syria.

A few flags are starting to pop up to the South of Damascus.

I'm astounded by what they are leaving behind as they retreat. Some of the most valuable equipment that the SAA has on paper. Think we will get to the stage where individual units start to move out of the path of advance, together with some deciding to ditch their uniforms and blend into the populace.

Will be fascinating to see what happens after Homs. Will their be a defensive line created or have the regime seen the writing on the wall so as to speak?

On this, looks like all sides now have the scent of death on the Assad regime. Popular uprising taking place in the South

Translation: we are too fcuked to help.

Its been shocking in the sense no one saw the actual attack coming but the swift collapse of the retreating army is kinda following the usual patterns. Those patterns would also suggest some sort of last ditch defense of Damascus won't work.

I suppose it shows just how much of an impact Russia had in Syria and another example of the effect the prolonged war in Ukraine is having on Russia's allies.

What we think?

Maybe a deal was done - take Syria, but leave out forces alone?

Russia are going to try and cut some sort of deal and try and have some say in future negotiations. Could that mean double crossing Assad (even after maybe giving him safe passage), I certainly think so. It will be very interesting to see how much weight they are given.

There was an uprising against them where insurgents took over the grand mosque

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Mosque_seizure

It's not really that surprising.

Syria's GDP was $4,000 per capita before the civil war started in 2011. Today GDP is just over $400 as Syria itself is now totally wrecked. With Russia and Iran pre-occupied elsewhere and Syria hollowed out economically and militarily, it's not going to take much for other foreign powers with deep pockets to exploit the situation. That's exactly what's happened here.

It's all over for Assad, his regime just doesn't have the strength to come back from this. There's no one going to step in with the manpower, the money, or the guns to prop him up. The only question now is what happens next. History would suggest we'll get a bloody and violent civil war. Europe would probably need to prepare itself for a fresh wave of refugees. A grim situation all round.

In terms of allies, you are leaving out Hezbollah. Which has just been effectively maimed in the last few months. They might have represented a source of fighters in a neighbouring state. Not after the destruction wrought by the IDF. One commentator suggested the rebel offensive had been planned for earlier in the year but was postponed due to the Israeli action.

In terms of economics, it's quite true that Syria was never an economic powerhouse. There is also the fact that the average Syrian might have seen less bloodshed in the last few years. However the economy has not improved for them since the ceasefires in 2020. Sanctions play a key role here. May have been a factor for the degree of soft support for the rebels seen the last few weeks. If the current government provides such a poor standard of living, they may chose to give the opposition a chance.

The pessimistic view would suggest another conflict is extremely likely. Hopefully enough of the external actors lean on their respective allied parties to moderate their behaviour. The optimistic view is their is enough fatigue from nearly a decade and a half of bloodshed to try to tone down the violence. Possibly some federation type model perhaps. Time till tell.

Quotes that they have fled Syria.

Might be to get the Russian Christmas presents as well.

Risky move if so.

They might end up in Iran instead. It is the most dangerous for Assad since 2011.

The nearer they get to Damascus and the coast, the more resistance they will meet. Thats where Assad's power base mainly comes from.

That's not quite correct. The Grand Mosque in Mecca was attacked in 1979 and the regime came close to falling.

Also, in the early 2000s there was a spate of so-called "gang warfare" in which BBC reporter Frank Gardner was shot at a traffic light and left paralysed, and his Irish cameraman was killed. It was later admitted that it was in fact Al Qaeda who were operating within Saudi - but I think that was only because once two respected journalists had been killed it was impossible to keep the open secret going (previously those killed had been smeared by the Saudi government as having fallen foul of dealers selling them illegal alcohol or drugs).

(There may well have been other events that I've forgotten or never heard about in the first place.)

So basically I think it's more about the iron grip of the Saudi regime on their citizens - they also simply have a lot more money with which to ensure the stability of their regime than Assad and similar who are bound to be affected by international sanctions etc.