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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,710 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Unstable and still another 14 short of a basic 90.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭StormForce13


    If you weren't so undeprivileged then you'd probably have spotted that this thread is about Sinn Fein's inability to persuade even 1 in 5 of the electorate to vote for their risible, pig in a poke policies. So if you'd like to comment on that simple mathematical fact, one that even the numerically challenged should be able to grasp, then away you go!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    He is al over TiKTok now…..

    getting cheered on by people who seemingly are totally ignorant on how an election works

    This is another example of SF tell lies to cover up for their own incompetence and hoping their supporters are stupid enough to believe them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,222 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    They're poor opposition but the government parties are protected by an economic reality that is the envy of all of Europe. The desire for "change" isn't needed for everyone.

    Fact is though the 2 main parties continue to be reduced to a double act to cling onto power, they are in terminal decline, jumping a couple points doesn't disprove this.

    Wether SF can get there act together or will it be SD/Labour in 4/5 years make further gains is anyone's guess, that's a long time in politics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    The decline of ffg continues. They're reduced to a pathetic double act to save their future and cling to power. Pathetic. SF didn't convince enough of the electorate but majority of the people want change , that is a statistical fact, and it will be harnessed by someone eventually. Whether that is sf , lab or a coalition of the left. Or an eventual far right party. Ffg bleeding of the country will only get them so much further I'm sorry to say for all our sake



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    SF will not be able to be in government without either FF or FG. There is no left coalition in the foreseeable future to get them close to 90 seats.



  • Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 44,296 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    FFG increased by 13 seats since the last election.

    SF increased by 2.

    That's a very weird analysis as to who is in "decline"

    Everyone, and I mean, everyone who voted for either FF or FG knew they would be going into coalition together.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    They also voted for them because they knew they wouldn't go into government with SF



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    If you just crunch the numbers, let's say FFFG suffer a drop next election and SF go up to 50 seats, Soc Dems and LAB increase to 15 each. That's still only a combined 80, then you have to bring in a 4th even 5th wheel to make up the numbers. Such a government would collapse in short order. It also assumes that all the decline from the government would go in one direction, some of it would go to parties on the right or Independents.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 557 ✭✭✭Dont Be at It


    That's it exactly. Anyone voting for ff or fg was voting for an ffg government.

    The twisting of this as a successful election for sinn fein by the usual suspects is bizarre. Not sure it could have gone much worse. The 16% pre election poll figure is getting waved around but that's just straw clutching.

    Well down on their numbers from the last GE. FFG marginally up (one of the only sitting governments around Europe to get reelected post Covid and Ukraine.). And to top it all off the other parties on the left (Labour and SD) have come back into the fray. These two could look a lot more appealing as a centre left alternative next time out you'd imagine. SF at a crossroads you'd feel.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Sinn Fein rep on RTE Upfront living in cloud cukcoo land.

    Selling the SF loss as a victory, and trying to set out a path to government from the left, even though she admits that FF and FG have the numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,775 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So was Richmond.

    Selective hearing is the problem I think.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    Because there is more available seats. But both their vote share declined since last election. I'm talking about ffg not sf. Their vote share has been continuously declining election on election. Only a few elections ago they were arch nemesis who would have enough on their own with one other small party to form a government. Now they're siamese twins desperately clinging together and giving each other their 2nd preferences. It's embarassing and shameless.

    Screenshot_20241202_224251_Samsung Internet.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Some selective words for the leadership of SF.

    They have always come across as a cult.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    With the continued long term trend of the decline of ffg of a share of the national vote it will happen eventually. From where they were as dominant juggernauts they're now each both reduced to parties the size of sf roughly and declining with each election.

    I don't know nor care if it's sf who will take advantage but it will be some alternative. For better or worse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    What are you talking about, SF lost a bigger percentage of their vote than anyone else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    What is with you all on here. I'm not talking about sf 🤣 there are other parties. Ffg have declined over the longer term trend as individual parties and as a pairing. That's my point. And everyone else as a collective is slowly gaining. Last time sf benefited. This time it was a collection of lab and soc dems and some others. Sf live in your heads rent free get a grip.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    Most of you on here need to go back to school and learn some basic math and English comprehension skillls



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    Are they, seems to me SD just took numbers the Greens had before, 12 seats down to 1 and now SD on 11. It's a rotating left wing vote, 5 years time it might flip back towards the Greens etc. Left wing parties have about the same number of seats as they had last time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,916 ✭✭✭Robson99


    Id say a lot of the Independants wouldnt touch SF with a barge pole. They much more aligned to FFG than the Shinners



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    If you had any clue about statistics and data you'd know longer and larger samples sizes are more important. And the long term trend is a dramatic decline in both parties. Their share of votes and seats was over 70% not too long ago. Now it is down to the 40s.

    Their share of first preference votes also have declined since 2020. And since everyone knows the jig their voters transfer to each other to help each other out.

    If they weren't declining why would such large parties who would often command government on their own and be rivals suddenly make the shamelessly cynical and strategic decision to be buddy buddy come government formation time these days? Cop on



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭rdwight


    There's one negative figure that jumps out in that chart and it's not -0.1 or -0.3

    FFG's number of FPVs stayed exactly the same from 2020. SF's number of FPV's fell by almost 120,000

    You are right about prospect of long term decline FFG and rise of left vote. But this thread is about this election.

    You are also right that posters in this thread spend most of their time talking about SF. There's a reason for this: see thread title for a clue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    Despite what you say this is a sf bashing thread purely it seems. I don't care that much for sf, and have already said who I voted for, but I care just as less for ffg. And all the smug ffg voters on here seem to think they've been vindicated when in fact, as has been established , their parties are in long term continous decline and the majority of people in the country do not want their two parties. Anyone who comes at me with "but but SF" is missing my point



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭rdwight


    Perhaps not the most apposite comment from someone who just posted a chart with the apparent intention of showing decline in FFG percentage share of the vote. The chart shows tiny drops in FFG percentage share and very significant decrease in SF percentage share.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭rdwight


    As it happens I gave my first preference to the same party as you and none of my eight preferences to FG or FF. So maybe park your preconceived and ill-conceived assumptions



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    But I never denied sf dropped 🤣 that wasn't the point of my argument. SF have grown from a tiny party seats wise over a longer period of time to getting more seats than FG twice. They've dropped off a bit this election. Over the longer period ffg have declined that is a fact. And that is my point.

    SF my decline further next election and so be it. But if trends continue so will ffg and it will be someone else or a coalition of opposition parties who will benefit.

    As i keep saying why have ffg become a bloc last two elections if they were doing so well? It's a cynical and desperate attempt to cling to power because neither party is what they once were.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    I dont care who you voted for. But I do wish you'd improve your reading comprehension and logic



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    I didn't vote for either of the government parties, but I'm also not blind to the reality that there's been only one major shift since 2020 and that was SF. You say the left is rising, yet the Greens have been decimated. As a whole there's almost no change to the number of left wing seats, just different parties holding them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    If you calculate the various left parties, the 2020 election had 30 left wing seats excluding SF, 6 SD, 6 Lab, 5 PBP, 12 Greens and 1 Independent for change. This time around we have, SD 11, Lab 11, PBP 3, Greens 1. Giving us a total of 26 seats. Add in the fact that there's 17 additional seats and if anything the left vote declined this election.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    Greens were decimated cause they were in government. I don't hail a glorious left rising in this election but as I keep saying the majority of people voted for an alternative to the government. FFG comprise of less than 50% of the vote. And as a combined entity they have declined over the longer term. So when people on here and govt minister look past their petty and childish SF bashing who yes they also performed poorly , they will find their victory is weak and doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Just like they did the Greens and Labour before them, they will go searching for a mudguard to make up the numbers because FFG don't have the public support of the majority of people. Hardly a ringing endorsement of them

    The left including should have done better considering the circumstance. And the fact they are fractured and splintered isn't helping their cause.



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