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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Because SF are serial liars.

    They know that they do not and will ever not have enough votes or seats to be the Major party in government if it came to govern with FF or FG. They will at best be on the same level.

    But if they are banging on about powerswaps and the like, why would they go into government with the very same people they want to get out of government. Their electorate arent the brightest so there will be questions asked here.

    On the other side of it, they want to dictate to the likes of Labour and SD, but Labour and the SD are not going to be their mudguards.

    Put simply, SF dont get southern politics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭rdwight


    A couple of things.

    First many "anti-SF" posters here aren't FFG supporters. We're just letting ourselves get overly exercisd by the ridiculous spin that SF have had a good election

    I think you may be underestimating the subtleties of PR. At least some of the 60% who didn't give FFG their first preference will have given them a lower preference and in that sense are qualified in their oppositon. Starmer, meanwhile, has a huge majority based on one third of the vote.

    Also, by the time a government is formed the extra TDs it will have to include will edge the combined FPVs closer to 50%

    Anyway, can you suggest a political mechanism to more fairly reflect the electorate's wishes?. The obvious one, a grand coalition of the opposition, won't happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭rdwight


    FPV

    FF.

    2020 484k. 2024. 481k. Change -3k. Pct Change. -0.62

    FG

    2020. 455k. 2024 458k. Change. +3k. Pct Change. +0.65

    SF

    2020 535k 2024. 418k. Change -117k. Pct Change. -21.86

    I'm getting these numbers from wikipedia which should be able to get basic numbers right. But they're so gobsmacking I'm wondering if there's an error.

    The vote dropped by one fifth even though numbers of candidates went from 42 to 71.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Now do a comparison to where they are to their highpoints in FPV's.

    Eyewatering decline in respect of FF FG. And it's continuing as you have shown.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭rdwight


    If only the electorate could have had some inkling in advance of what they were voting for.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Approx 40% voted for FF FG. If you think the other 60% are going to sit meekly and allow them do whatever without comment, you are in for a rude awakening.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 892 ✭✭✭GSBellew


    24 x 20% - = 19

    24 % of first preference votes in 2020 dropping to 19% in 2024 is a 20% drop in first preference votes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,245 ✭✭✭standardg60


    You're familiar with the thread so the gymnastics are nothing new. Francie has regularly railed against MM for 'supposedly' opening the door to SF and then shutting it after the last election and how undemocratic (read unfair) of him.

    Same stuff again, the electorate seemingly definitely don't want FG so it's in FF's best interest to go in with SF or face annihilation, cos they definitely want SF in Government, don't they?

    Knowledge is learning something, wisdom is learning from it, intelligence thought of it first.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This is just nonsense.

    The denial around what MM did on the night of the election in 2020 is just choice really. Perish the thought but they discussed it on RTE during this one's coverage.

    I also never said the electorate don't want FG either.

    Making up stuff never ends here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭StormForce13


    I really appreciate the flattery Francie, but surely even you are capable of grasping that I'm NOT Matt Cooper, who is the author of the "made up" stuff that you attribute to me?

    (Incidentally, I mentioned earlier that I'm an OAP, so surely you don't really imagine that I'd waste my remaining time on earth reading any of your "longer" spins on the election? I gave up reading Enid Blyton level fiction a long time ago.)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well let me make you a deal?

    If you won't read what I actually have to say before commenting on what you think I said, then I won't bother reading what you have to say, because by definition it is made up. Deal?

    Take care.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,130 ✭✭✭HBC08


    It's fascinating to observe the shinners in the wake of their collapse. There's a kind of delusion going on that makes me doubly glad I didn't give them anything (I would have voted for them had they outlined any sort of sensible immigration policy) They are coming across as unhinged and in denial.

    Just saw Eoin o Broin on the news informing us that they're going to talk to labour and the Soc Dems.Thats great Eoin,what are ye going to be talking about because it won't be a pathway to Government.

    The manic smiling and wild eyes from Mary Lou is unnerving,shes looking more and more at odds with reality with every appearance.

    It really is remarkable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,075 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    It's often said and remains true. Not a normal party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Can you shed any light on this 'collapse'?

    I think it's equally fair to say, 'anti-Shinners are not 'normal' people'.


    Finish second in seat numbers is a 'collapse'. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭Dr Robert


    SF have held their vote more or less.

    That's poor considering they've campaigned on change again. Once MMLD stays in charge I can't see them progressing much more.

    Will she still be around for the next election in 2029?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭StormForce13


    Life's too short, Francie.

    Plus I'm having a bowel scan on Wednesday morning - courtesy of the excellent HSE - so I've got quite enough brown stuff on my short term horizon without needing to read any more of your stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Madeoface


    The only two canvassers I spoke to were SD and labour. I told them I couldn't see any real difference in policy so why don't the SD's go back to labour and give the country an alternative, proper left option. Ego was the answers from both canvassers...

    They seem to have nibbled a good bit of the shinner vote. 5 more years of negative politics from shouty Doherty and unfinished policy proposals from o,broin will see them nibble more imo.

    Even in defeat the shinner perspective of its you, not us, is perplexing. No leadership.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    If you must know I voted soc dems abd coppinger. Again I didn't say it was a bad result for SF and I don't really care 🤣 stop crying like a baby. But I was also far from a commanding result for the government ffg.

    THE FACT is that they only got 40 odd percent between them. So most of the country wants some form of change or alternative. Its hardly a ringing endorsement of the government in any sense. If you can't accept that fact then tough luck sorry for ya



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    So many privileged folk on here who support FFG in denial that their once mighty two parties who were sworn enemies have been reduced to a tragic double act in their desperate quest to hold power, and who's share of the vote continues to wittle with every election that they're now in the minority of the electorate. Maths is difficult for them but sure why is that a surprise when they've annihilated the housing economy and health system. Numbers and facts never has been their strong point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Privilege is earned in Ireland. This is Sweden or Denmark.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    If Sinn Fein have lost 22% of their votes from 2020, how can you claim that they won a battle for votes??!??

    That is a truly bizarre interpretation that Sinn Fein somehow won votes by losing votes!!!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jesus blanch. Some of those independents were SF support in 2020.
    People were that busy only seeing abuse of their own party online that they are not aware of the abuse SF received every single time they posted.

    They saw off that far right vote. That’s a win win for everyone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You don't see them off if you lost votes to them!!!!

    Truly madly bizarre.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,857 ✭✭✭Field east


    OR if you offered SF 38 seats a year + plus ago when it was ‘riding high ‘ at 35% it would tell you go take a jump



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,776 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They were at 16% pre the election. The independents lost to SF and other left parties.

    If you know anything about what was happening before and during the campaign those independents were targeting the space SF and other left parties occupied.

    The opinion polls had independents much much higher than they finished.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,780 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    So looking at the seat totals and given that it’s been reported that SF have contacted the Soc Dems and labour. The numbers add up to 61 seats when you put those together. That’s still 27 seats short of a majority. Even when you put the 15 independents(removed Brian Stanley as it’s clear he wouldn’t deal with SF after the past few months.

    That brings that block to 76 which is relatively stable. That’s still twelve short, and it’s been said you’d realistically need to go low to mid nineties for something to last.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    What an uncredibly ignorant and ironically privileged response



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Dick phelan


    Thinking about it SF are probably the weakest opposition in Europe. Does anyone know of another recent example in a European election where it was the main opposition who lost a bigger percentage of their vote than the sitting government? When you factor in the extra seats SF have basically made zero gains.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,857 ✭✭✭Field east


    when all is said and done and without FF and FG saying anything about coming together to form the next gov - they did not have to because they cooperated very well over the 5 yrs and their supporters felt that if it’s not broken then do’nt fix it and also there was no need to mention about vote stopping between the two- the opposition had done ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about putting forward a programme. Very late in the canvassing ML and Ivana Bacik kind of hinted who they might talk to . Bacik notably left out SF re who she might talk to andML left out Labour.
    Just imagine THAT COMBINATION getting in and running the country and it is only now - the day after the votes being cast that they are thinking of having a UNITED FRONT.
    it would not be necessary for them. To have such a front worked out in detail but broad agreement on the core issues so that the voter gets some sense as to what they would be on about if they were successful.

    This MANTRA of give us a chance RINGS Hollow - a chance to do what



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,051 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    A coalition with 14 Independents can hardly be described as stable…..



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