Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

To really hit a resource economy like Russia hard the sanctions need to have the backing of all the main players. It's not enough just to hit services like banking, investment, aviation... The problem is that China and to some extent India are such a major leakage on the resource side that the impacts are no where near what they could be.

This situation won't be helped by Trump antagonising China.

The world is not worried enough about the ghouls and goblins coming in in Washington for the next 4 years.

Brace for impact.

That needs to be the angle pushed, big time. Trump has three options: 1) stop aid to Ukraine and stay out of the issue, 2) stop aid to Ukraine and back Putin's drive for a 'resolution', or 3) back Ukraine and look to cripple Russia. If Trump thinks that there is an easy win there by turning the screw on Putin to the extent that he might be seen as the POTUS that routed Russia as a power without any loss of blood, he may very well take that option with both hands. Essentially, explore every option to further cripple the Russian economy, ween the likes of India and China away from them with the kind of cloak and dagger boardroom negotiations he likes to pride himself on. I think that's the best we can hope for here.

I can't see why Trump would rescue Putin here, unless he sees an angle to financially benefit from a recovering Russia. Or Putin has dirt on him.

N Korea has been running on fumes for decades, there are different definitions of "collapse" but it's doubtful Russia will fully implode (although there's nothing wrong with expressing optimism for that)

It could however become unfeasible to run such an expensive war. The cracks are showing and it impacts all Russians, which only increases the pressure, even in a dictatorship.

If Putin has no hold over him, it'll definitely be about money for Trump. Either the prospect of personal enrichment on the side or a huge boost to the US economy which would ingratiate him to the population. Which are the two things he seems to care most about - money and being worshipped. It's just hard to see how helping Russia out here could benefit the US to any meaningful extent. It seems to me (unqualified internet armchair expert in nothing) that the best bet is in siding with Ukraine, getting the contracts for rebuilding the country, trade deals on raw materials, a boost in trading with the EU all the while seeing Russia's strength on the world stage plummet.

China is the unknown factor here. They would undoubtedly like to see Russia stay in the game if it looks as though Trump is going to take aim at them by way of trade war too. Which is why I think there needs to be some back channel discussions to ease tensions with China and agree to letting them have some sort of say in how Russia is exploited once Putin implodes.

I really just REALLY want to see Putin having some kind of unfortunate window related accident. Soon.

Hitler's (and the Nazi party's) hold on the German population 90/ 95 years ago is different to Putin's hold over the Russians. German's experienced a dramatic increase in living standards and fully bought into the idea of Germany as an imperialist, conquering nation. Putin doesn't have anything like the same hold over Russians. It's purely about money in Moscow, and if things look like they'll tip over an edge I can see things starting to disintegrate. I don't think it's happening anytime soon, and I don't think it will come from any kind of popular uprising. But if things keep going south for the economy, and if he can't sustain his military successes, I think general rumblings of discontent on the streets could lead to those close to the Kremlin deciding to throw their lot in with someone else.

Oh look,it's another red line!🙄

It's a gradual strangling of their economy I suppose. It could have been sped up and made much more painful if EU/UK/US etc. were braver, and willing to suffer some more pain themselves.

As said, I believe ones still trading heavily with them, even the friends who would quite like to see Putin win his war, are driving hard bargains because Russia has little choice.

It is too slow for Ukraine and it has not dented Russia's war industry enough. They can still get supplies of Western stuff they really need for it, and have no Chinese replacement for - it just costs them an awful lot more.

On Trump, I think it is better that European leaders have been pretty quiet about it vs screaming their heads off panicking in public (if that is what you are getting at there?). I mean what can one say at this point? All they can do is get ready for it as best they can. I would be very surprised if they are not extremely worried. The worst case scenarios are awful (for us in Europe, and other US allies).

I don't think China has as much to fear from Trump as one might expect ironically. I think the permanent damage he will do to the US and to its allies (which will benefit China in the long run) outweights harm he will inflict on them during his term!

And there's lads on here thinking Poland should be fearing a possible Russian invasion.

given how some of the businesses/ services / Irish individuals are reacting to The Conor McGregor court case outcome I expect that anything to do with Donal Trump in Ireland will be subjected to the same treatment - am thinking his Doonbeg facility in Clare by way of example. Ml Jackson got the same treatment, in principal. Was RTE involved in the Treatment of MJ in that we never hear any of his music being played.

Sliver of good news up North

Your posts are utterly confusing.

You seem to take glory in the advances of Russian troops or any kind of advancement at all. And then follow up with "Not good news at all". Haven't really seen you put much support in for Ukraine at all…ever.