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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭corkie


    @Dohnjoe Show your interest in having BlueSky embeds by: -

    Looking for Bluesky Embed links here, click the Thanks on this post or 'Boards.ie: Mike' Reply.

    As you can see from the posts, it is in the works. But in 'Vanilla' hands so could take awhile.

    @j62 Thanks for cross posting, can't remember the last time that happened on a post of mine.

    Mods: - Sorry for Thread off topic comments. But I was tagged into here.

    ⓘ "At some point something inside me just clicked and I realized that I didn't have to deal with anyone's bullshit ever again."
    » “mundus sine caesaribus” «



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Cheers. Slightly off topic but also on topic, Bluesky was a breeze to set up, and I found most of my Twitter OSINT links right away by finding a few sources I knew and then going through their follow lists and adding the sources. Took less than a minute.

    Handy for anyone wanting to follow decent OSINT and info on the war.

    Also it's astonishing to see actual normal comments and not a cesspit of bots and agitators and whatever else. Not sure how long it will last, but nice for now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,000 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    It didn't work out because the ethnic Russian regions of Ukraine revolted against what they saw as a violent, hostile regime being violently installed by the US against their wishes. There was uprisings and public protests against the coup all throughout southern and eastern Ukraine during early and mid 2014. The new regime managed to crush the anti-coup protestors in some parts (notably by burning protestors alive in Odessa in May 2014) but that only further radicalised and militarised the protestors in regions like Donetsk and Luhansk, who formed militias and held off the pro-regime forces in those regions. Russian forces only intervened later - a lot later than the militias had hoped for.

    The dark secret the "friends of Ukraine" don't want to admit is that the conflict is primarily a civil war, with external powers backing both sides. Even during 2022-23 a very large proportion of the Russian forces were actually Donbass militiamen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    What I don’t get is how these pro Russia posters square the inherent contradictions in their posts

    Let’s take the “we should fear Russia and not provoke them further” talking point, putting aside for a moment that it was Russia who started this war

    If that’s the case ^ then the most realistic (a word @Kermit.de.frog loves to use) and logical conclusion is for the countries being threatened on daily basis is to keep bleeding Russia dry and hence neutralise/lessen the threat

    So why are they crying when Russia aggression and almost daily threats are countered with more sanctions and aid to Ukraine?

    It’s like a bully in school threatening the rest of classmates while continuing to beat one kid up getting upset when the rest of the kids try to help

    Is it because they fear Russia escalating to nuclear weapons? Then why every single one of these representatives avoided answering the next logical question I keep asking, “is Russia prepared to escalate to WW3 and be obliterated over Ukraine?”

    I said it before for Ukraine and quite possibly Europe this war is existential, for Russia it’s very much optional



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The Institute for the Study of War has released new figures on territorial transfer in the war.

    It claims that since September 1st Russia has claimed "at least" 426 sq miles of territory. In the whole of 2023 the Institute estimates Russia only gained 149 sq miles.

    War no longer a stalemate as Russia makes rapid advances, says ISW

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/25/donetsk-frontline-russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest/

    The vast bulk of advances are in Donestk which continues to undermine the wisdom of the Kursk operation which is diverting manpower and equipment.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 938 ✭✭✭wildefalcon


    So, having read this thread I gather there was a coup in Ukraine in 2014. And the Russians invaded in 2022 as a result, to restore democracy.

    Did they not notice for eight years?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,383 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Really? I gathered that Russia's involvement was purely to protect the regions of Ukraine with the most affinity to Russia, which it did by flattening its cities, looting whatever was still standing, raping its women and children and sending its men to their deaths as cannon fodder.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,657 ✭✭✭yagan


    There are Russian populations in all three baltic states, is Putin entitled to invade them too?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    So less than Ukraine captured in August in Kursk

    I went on google maps and measured the areas in oblasts Russia claims and not yet occupied

    Zaporizhie Oblast 2288m^2 unoccupied

    Donetsk Oblast 2280m^2

    Kherson Oblast 2475m^2

    Luhansk almost all gone

    So 4.2 years at current rate for Russia to “win”, tho quite likely more as large chunks are on other side of Dnipro river and there’s some major cities there Russia has not shown its capable of taking

    Triple that if they want Kharkiv too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭pcardin


    jesus wept. you should be really taking medicine and walks in the fresh air and not post all this daily trash…



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,178 ✭✭✭✭AndyBoBandy


    since September 1st Russia has claimed "at least" 426 sq miles of territory. In the whole of 2023 the Institute estimates Russia only gained 149 sq miles.

    So an area roughly the size of Dublin…… in just under 3 months…

    Screenshot 2024-11-25 at 15.19.42.png

    in a country 9 times larger than Ireland

    Screenshot 2024-11-25 at 15.21.56.png

    Forgive me for thinking the end isn't nigh for Ukraine just yet…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    That’s not the worst of it, checkout parallel thread to this one


    went full metal jacket Zionist world conspiracy theory there and posts before/after

    If going outside (and hence be exposed to 5G signals) I would recommend lining hat with tinfoil too 🤣 as signals can reach from space now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭pcardin


    "Not sure about "negotiation" but Putin's terms for ending the war are the four oblasts (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia) and Ukraine neutrality."

    This is vatnik "golden logic" nobody else in civilized universe would be able to understand. Plyutkin wants 4 oblasts he has not invaded yet, and Ukraine's neutrality. Neutrality, let this word sink in your twisted mind. Hes demanding neutrality by removing neutrality? I mean….

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 877 ✭✭✭eoinbn


    Ukraine isn't running out of land, it's running troops and equipment to defend it.

    If the war continues into the spring of 2025 Ukraine's equipment issues will get far worse with US supplies drying up and Europe continuing be it's utterly dysfuctional self.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    As mentioned there was no coup in 2014.

    In terms of East Ukraine, a majority did not want Kremlin control, they simply wanted some federal independence (and polls repeatedly showed this). There was no significant history of violence in the region at all.

    Putin, using a handful of local pro-Russians, the FSB and large numbers of Russian soldiers started and maintained a proxy war in the region under the guise that it was some sort of "uprising" or "civil war".

    Pretty astonishing to see this raw Russian propaganda resurface in 2024.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭pcardin


    doing business with Vatland is shooting yourself in the leg. They will screw you over and you will end up with no spuds and no money. its kind of national tradition.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭pcardin


    you nuts? Hes mama and papa will be cut in calmari rings if he post anything negative towards Vatland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭pcardin


    yeah, but would "vatnik b1tch" not sound better? Campist for them would almost sound like an honor.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭pcardin


    same same. just pre meds and no meds. 🙂🙂🙂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,216 ✭✭✭pcardin


    hands of ruSSkies are growing out of their arseh0les. Its a known fact. They are incapable to produce anything. Their cars are 1960' technology, war stuff is 1940' technology, even propaganda is from 1980'. Even when vatniks had all western technology available pre-war they were not able to produce anything meaningful due to the hands-out-of-arse issue, now even less hope.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭CliffHangeroner


    Yeah this war is only going one way at the moment Kermit unfortunately. With Trump just around the corner things are looking grim for Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    All four of the oblasts have been invaded and Russia occupies the majority land area of all four of them and that increases every day. Ergo for a negotiation of any substance Russia would have to be prepared to concede territorial gains. That seems highly unlikely but it depends on Ukraine's negotiating mandate at the end of the day.

    In 2018 the Ukrainian parliament voted to adopt the "goal" of NATO membership and they even put that in to the constitution which they are fully entitled to do as a sovereign state. I don't think that was a wise move myself. Yes, they were angry and upset with Russian criminality and subversion in the Donbas but it was short sighted.

    Ukraine made other decisions that didn't make strategic sense. For example, they famously cut off water supplies to Crimea.

    A poster asked earlier why would Russia want to cross the Dnipro and occupy Kherson (the west of the city)? On the face of it it wouldn't be worth much but Russia now sees it as a strategic imperative to guarantee water supplies to Crimea and that's why they want all of Kherson on both sides of the river.

    There is a whole long list of decisions on all sides that has led us where we are. Decision makers not showing enough foresight or tactical nous (in Russia's case it's just Putin's cabal behaving as they always have with their 'near abroad') in dealing with very complicated issues.

    The whole thing is very depressing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    A decision which led to invasion:

    -Thinking of joining a defensive alliance.

    Finland stated there were going to join NATO, they then joined NATO, were they or are they inviting invasion? No.

    Russia has moved troops away from the Finland border.

    No one wants to invade nuclear armed Russia. We know this, they know this, every dog on the street knows this, so why is this game played whereby Putin's "security concerns" are used as a pretext to shift blame away for his decision to invade Ukraine?

    That's because they aren't security concerns, they are propaganda designed to validate invasion and shift blame away from the invader.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,531 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The idea that Ukraine would give up a massive city across the Dnipro is quite obviously incredibly stupid.

    Russia keeps pushing maximalist aims because they don't actually want a peace deal. There is simply no universe where any country would accept giving territory across a massive geographical barrier that the opponent has been completely unable to cross/maintain as part of a peace deal. Russia makes this a prerequisite to discussions. It should be treated with the disdain it deserves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,383 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It is called a poison pill.

    Russia very deliberately did the same with tentative talks at Istanbul, including demands they knew Ukraine would not accept.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I hope you're right but I have serious doubts your prediction about Kherson will age well. I don't know how the Russians will approach Trump's negotiations, no one does.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    we make our own NATO with rum (two nuclear armed states) and without hookers (Orban etc)

    Discussions on deploying Western troops and private defence contractors to Ukraine have resumed in Europe after Donald Trump's victory in the US elections. 

    "Discussions are underway between the United Kingdom and France on defence cooperation, including the creation of a core group of European allies focused on Ukraine and broader European security," a British military source told Le Monde.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,531 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ukraine may yet lose Kherson (I doubt it personally but anything is possible). But the idea they would give it up proactively is obviously absurd on so many levels. Surely you can see this?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,964 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Just Google Romanian Elections now, and see what's happening, and how Putin operates.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭j62


    It be a bit hard as most of that Oblast is on other side of Dnipro river on one side and massive city and Dnipro oblast on other side

    The Vatniks are getting all overexcited lately best not indulge them, Ukraine is big and Russian advances are slow



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