FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

…and you do realise our current government is also doing the exact same thing, yea!

…politics is the game of bullsh1tting, especially around election time, and from all!

…theyve always done give away budgets! again, sex sells, this is how you buy votes, and it works, ffg have a history of it, and it ll work again, and they wont be able to fulfill all of their pre election bullsh1tting!

…and again, all are promising what they actually cant deliver, its how politics works, i.e. its the art of bullsh1tting!

Agree to an extent that there’s a lot of common ground in Irish politics but if you were to say what are the 3 big issues for the next government I think most would agree.

Housing

Jobs/Economy

Immigration

Immigration fine. All parties largely in agreement, they’d find common ground.

Housing. FF vocallly championing their current model of demand side incentives and private sector led output. SF literally polar opposite. All demand side subsidies gone. Ramp up state building and a completely new model for affordable housing. I think most would agree any SF government has to have a SF housing minister and SF led policy. This is their single biggest issue and it’s clear the public wants them in control of this. Will FF cede such a huge issue when they’ll likely be the bigger party. I’d tend towards probably, yes they would.

Jobs/Economy. SF policies on things like USC, Property Tax, Income tax, SARP etc. are by any objective assessment - reckless, populist nonsense that would all need to be rolled back within a few years. FF will know this and just cannot see them giving in to such stupid policy demands as the larger party. So then it comes down to, are SF happy to just be the housing party and leave the economic stuff to FF? SF are perennial opposition so we don’t know how pragmatic they can be. Question mark for me.

So overall can see it potentially happening. And as long as it’s SF in charge of housing and health and leave everything else to FF. MM as Taoiseach, it could actually be a reasonably decent outcome. I for one would be intrigued to see how SF got on with housing and health. FG would be licking their lips for 5 years time. But there’s a couple of major hurdles and ultimately FF/FG/Labour just seems way easier deal to do.

This would be similar to my take, as someone who's never voted/supported SF, before too.

FG have historically been my party but first under Leo, and now under Harris and with McEntee as deputy leader I think they've completely lost their way. The Thatcherite clique of some of the younger TDs like Leo, Harris, Carroll MacNeill etc come across particularly heartless and out of touch with the electorate any time they're on camera unscriptied - like this week with Harris and the carer. They're just not good politicians.

And almost 14 years in government have made them complacent and incompetent. A bad election, a clearout of the deadwood, and few years in opposition before returning to power would do the party wonders.

A sole SF government would give me worries about things like foreign affairs and justice in particular. But FF/SF/a small minority party would be a good combination I think - SF would take health, housing, social protection because they're the SF priorities. FF would be the adults in the room with justice, foreign affairs and finance not rocking the EU or multinational boat and keeping spending (relatively) in check.

We've tried FG's policies in government for the last 14 years and they very clearly just aren't working in certain areas like housing and immigration. SF's alternative approach is at least deserving of a try at this stage. SF are a centrist party these days, they're not wacky extremists like PBP. And as only one leg of a coalition government they'll have to compromise on everything too.

Largely agree with all of this. SF are indeed a largely centrist party. The only concern with them is they tend to take some mental positions on really key issues in the heat of the moment e.g. anti EU, zero COVID. I’d assume having adults in the room as you say will mitigate this
Part of me also has this nagging concern that they really don’t give a sh*t about anything and will just drop the masks and relentlessly pursue a United Ireland over all else the second they get a mandate.

Undertand this perspective. But if FF choose to go in with SF. For their sake and for Irelands sake, they actually need to work together to try to be successful. Constantly hoping the other fails won’t wash with the electorate 5 years down the line.

I personally would also hold the view that SF would make an absolute disaster of housing that they would have us yearning for the days of 2024. I’m not 100% sure on that however and a part of me would be interested to at least see. If it didn’t work, so be it, not the end of the world - it’s rectifiable over many years.

The concern on the economy is if they do destroy it (which I’m highly certain they would if given the reigns), it’s not rectifiable. If we kill the MNC goose. It will never return. Back to being a relative poor EU country.

How likely is it they will have to though? Seems unlikely to me they will be unable to put together some form of government with FG…

I just read this article, totally insane situation… We have a totally porous border… they are flooding in from the north… We price our young and hard workers out of the country and welcome the rest of the world, with open arms! People still living in their parents box room, working taxpayers for years, decades perhaps… But welcome on in if your non irish, pass go and collect welfare, free accomodation and the mental cost of all of the other services, that you will be provided with. Paid for by those working here!

FG have the strongest asylum policy of the 3 major parties; If people want to see reduced asylum immigration, FG are the best bet.

SF, as a left wing socialist party, are not going to take a tougher stance on immigration, which is why they sat on the fence as long as possible, knowing their core vote base wouldnt like their answer.

SFs housing policy is a disaster!

First they want to drive out investment funds: yep, those same funds that are driving all of the private sector new builds. Ironically, they also still expect the private sector to deliver the MAJORITY of their housing completions...go figure.

Secondly, their SF state land homes would require policy change; new public sector construction entities that would take years to assemble.

Meanwhile, housing delivery would fall off a cliff while SF try to assemble the state construction teams they promised and we would see more homeless and increased house prices as a result.

FFG have momentum on housing and will top 40k new homes in 2025, you'd be lucky to see half that number under SF in 2025.

And there is still question marks amongst the banks in relation to providing mortgages on these half owned/half not SF homes, which could totally derail the plan anyway and make the homes unviable to build.

FFG beat SF hands down on housing delivery over the 5 yr term and will reduce asylum immigration more swiftly than SF.

Harris is talking about refugees only being housed if they work, and putting on chartered planes to send failed asylum applicants back.

Thr biggest threat of all to Ireland is Trump. There is not a cat in hells chance of SF navigating those waters succesfully. You could kiss goodbye to our corporate tax and MNC jobs under SF and they would not be coming back.

Fortunatley for the country, MM has stated publicly this week that he wont go into govt with SF.

Sure FF will carry them anyway. Might just mean Martin gets to be Taoiseach before Harris. FFG aren't in danger.

FG have been in government for the past 13 and a half years. We have a FG Taoiseach, and an FG minister for justice. FG are responsible for the asylum policy of our government.

That asylum policy is an abject failure. We're expected to take in approaching 30,000 asylum seekers this year, and that number is growing rapidly year by year. And we still aren't even deporting the failed asylum seekers, despite it being raised as an issue long ago by Michael McNamara to Helen McEntee. From the BBC article just posted here:

"More than 2,000 people who arrived in Ireland illegally have been issued deportation orders so far this year, a 156% increase on the same period in 2023. However, only 129 of those people (just over 6%) are confirmed to have since left the state."

The idea that FG are the "best bet" to reduce asylum seekers is quite clearly not logical, or based in reality, at all. We know exactly what sort of failed asylum system we'll have under an FG government - because we already have it.

Indepedent Ireland and Aontu are the two parties most likely to dramatically reduce numbers of asylum seekers. SF are gradually moving towards a policy of doing the same, due to pressure from their working class voters. FF are agnostic on the issue and will go whichever way public pressure pushes them, as they always do. FG, Labour, the SocDems and Greens are the most pro-asylum seeker - and thats reflected in polls of their supporters too.

II are in prime position to be a minority party in any government (FF/FG+ or FF/SF+) though, so are the party to vote for if asylum policy is anyone's primary issue of concern.