Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

it has always being Putins contention that there's an "enemy" threatening Russia, and he is the only one who can protect Russian and Russians. And he has used this strategy to take and hold on to power since he was elected. But this "enemy" will be his last one, he bit off more than he can chew, and now its lodged in his throat, choking him.

Back to where it will all be decided. Looks like a full collapse is now taking place in the Southern Donbass. South of Kuakhove a big advance towards the town of Velyka Novosilka is in progress. Probably looking at this one, Kuakhove, Torestsk and Chasiv Yar all falling by the end of the year.

Currently over 170 settlements taken this year and not one in two years captured by the Ukrainians. Quite incredible where that " stalemate " narrative came from.

As the usual explainer for anyone new to the thread, recently it's been "opened", which has allowed a lot of Putin supporters back in who relish posting bad news for Ukraine or positive news for Russia (and concern trolling). Some have broken character but most are careful to mask it despite the obvious

Not inherently something bad, discussion is good, but worth pointing out. Typically there's an uptick in it when we get some good news e.g. US missiles or storm shadows hitting something in Russia

Speaking of which, there are rumours from several sources that a Russian general was potentially killed in the strike in Kursk (along with 18 others, and 33 wounded)

Naturally they are originally Russian sources, I recognise the graphics from Telegram

That said they are making gains, there are widespread meatwave attacks (backed by artillery and air) going on before winter sets in

Latest ISW reports

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2024

Russians losing a lot of men doing so

So 1/10th of Kursk

Ukraine doesn't have much say.

As the invader, it's Putin who decides, and if you want to believe everything in the public sphere he has signaled repeatedly he has no interest in settlement

The moment Ukraine signals through back-channels they want a deal or a settlement, in the current state, that's a red rag to Putin.

We're all pretty much waiting for Trump to get in and see if anything occurs from that. He's likely to favour Putin, but since he's unstable no one can make that call yet.

Russia will grind on, Ukraine doesn't have any other choice but to cede and make it as difficult for Russia as possible (plus wait for harsher weather and Trump)

Yes, that's the point. As the Loafing Oaf said above "Putin is seeing (sic) to be 'doing something' in response to Biden's granting permission to Ukraine to fire American missiles into Russia". Which I'd agree with.

If you take the Trump line, Biden was choosing to allow ATACMS on the basis that Russia might be dumb enough to respond by attacking US personnel in Ukraine, thus messing with whatever Trump chooses to do when he takes power (whatever that turns out to be, which is not necessarily what he says it is now, Trump being Trump).

Evidently Russia was not going to be quite that stupid but presumably, like Iran, there was pressure to look forceful without doing anything really problematic. Thus the whole hand wavey intermediate ballistic missile, isn't it great, approach.

However, if it looks like an ICBM and flies like one (and probably smells like one too) it's probable NORAD's early warning system might say it's an ICBM, leading to significant amounts of freaking out. Thus, as the Guardian said on Thursday:

Russia is required by a treaty to inform the US of the launch of certain kinds of ballistic missiles, in the hopes of preventing an escalatory ladder that could lead to an all-out nuclear war.

Leaving it until the last 30 minutes (officially) is part of the looking hard angle I suppose. Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin.

As an aside, the British seem to have unerring timing in their Storm Shadow greenlighting. One day after the US seems like "We were waiting for Daddy Biden to let us" rather than "look, we're helping". Which makes them look like pretty submissive to the US, all things considered. They also seem to have missed the bit where Biden is gone in like 8 weeks. I can imagine a new Trump administration might be a bit p'ed off at what they see as British support for Biden's attempt to wreck Trump’s peace agenda in Ukraine (again, whatever that is). Luckily Trump is well known for his calm demeanour and not taking things personally.

This could lead to awkward meetings where the Brits are looking for some nice trade deal on the basis of their "special relationship" and Trump tells them where to stuff their relationship. It might have been more prudent to wait and see.

To be a fly on the wall on that meeting too. Although knowing Trump we'll all get to know what happens.

Apologies in advance as no positive news is allowed anymore. Are we happy with how Kursk is holding? Russia's going to lose an awful lot trying to take this back.

Ukraine said many months ago that Crimea would be returned without military means.

The rate of human losses for Russia is accelerating as Russia can no longer get adequate weapons. Russia needs to position for a deal very soon. That's starting. In a very public way Putin went to North Korea to get some more military personnel and also bought weapons. That is really important signalling.

They are completely fckued if Saudi Arabia decide to completely cut the price of a barrel. Which they might.

I hope you’re right, but why do you think it’s in “free fall “? It has just been steadily declining as the Central Bank doesn’t have the funds to prop it up.

Of course it’s very bad for the Russian economy and drives inflation up and reduces standard of living. But Putin and his mates don’t care too much about that.

Definitely agree that Ukraine needs to target oil resources and refineries. Their best chance of winning is for Russian economy to collapse and no more funds for military activities or soldiers’ salaries.

David McWilliams has fallen head first into conspiracy theories now

Claiming on his last podcast that the call between Scholz and Putin was to split up Europe (including Ukraine and Baltics) in a secret Molotov Rubentrop type pact

No he didn't. He speculated that Scholz called Putin to discuss the terms for Ukraine's surrender. There was no talk of splitting the Baltics.

McWilliams can he be a bit lose with words but the jest of it is that Scholz can see the writing is on the wall without US support so Germany is trying to get ahead of the game.

Perhaps Scholz should take a look at the writing on the side of Russian tanks and helicopters

“To Berlin” they say often next to Zwastika

Scholz is on his way out after his (pro Ukraine coalition partners walked away) and main opponents the CDU are strongly pro Ukraine

There’s **** all he can do, never mind try to give up chunks of another country

Anyways Putin’s reply the following day was the largest drone and missile attack on Ukraine, even a thicko like Scholz would understand that

I linked to the pod, people can make up their own mind about his ramblings not backed by any evidence