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Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    In this article by the Irish independent, Kenny Jacobs said San Diego was a likely route for Dublin Airport, and Aer Lingus seems the only candidate for this route:

    https://m.independent.ie/business/dublin-airport-could-breach-passenger-cap-by-two-million-next-year-says-daa-boss/a528385897.html



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 10,074 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    Kenny Jacobs has an agenda in each interview he does. He will happily talk about possible new routes in order to rail against the pax cap.

    Also, just because a city is large doesn't mean there should be a flight to it from Dublin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    Thanks. So are you saying this is probably nonsense to get the cap removed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,751 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Basically, unless you see a route being suggested by an airline exec; its probably not that realistic. Capital markets/investor days are good for useful info; airport operators are not.

    Overthe summer, multiple medium sized city airports in the US hinted strongly at getting Aer Lingus for S25; and didn't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    Oh OK, thanks for that. Sorry, I wasn’t aware.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,276 ✭✭✭EchoIndia




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 257 ✭✭Gary walsh 32


    Normally another aircraft goes down to replace wonder why it's not the case this time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,542 ✭✭✭✭cson


    As someone who lives there now, don't believe what you see on Twitter etc.

    The reality is far less polarized than you think, the country is fine.

    I would be worried for Ireland medium term from FDI perspective as all that IP is going to be onshored as much as possible during this administration.

    As for redeploying the aircraft elsewhere as a risk mitigation, if there's a downturn in the US then ROTW is fucked and there won't be anywhere else worth sending them to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    I have Family in South Africa & go at least twice a year. There’s no way there’s enough traffic to fill a long range plane from Ireland to SA. Even Singapore airlines do South Africa, stopping off in Joburg before heading onto CPT, & visa versa on their return journey.

    If Singapore Airlines cannot fill a plane to either destination then AL have no chance. AL even tried a seasonal to CPT before, & didn’t work.

    Honestly, where does your fantasy speculation end?
    Beirut

    Brazil

    Mexico

    New Delhi

    Addis Ababa

    South Africa

    Please, realise there’s executives paid big salaries to source potential routes.

    I used to enjoy reading input by people on here who are in the know. Now the thread is becoming boring in the extreme.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    I posted to this thread with new routes twice, and those were Houston, South Africa and San Diego. Houston I realise why it wouldn’t work (United hub), but it’s hardly that daft. South Africa was actively planned by aer lingus, but they scrapped it for open skies. And San Diego was mentioned recently by DAA. When did I even imply that Beirut, Addis Ababa, São Paulo, Mexico and Delhi would be served by AL



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,557 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I would think it unlikely they would launch San Diego any time soon, it would need a twin aisle aircraft for a start, also going off these figures, the PAX numbers at least, are low…

    "I've looked into DUB-LAS. The most recent useful data is from 2019. That year, the market had approximately 73,000 roundtrip point-to-point passengers, making it DUB's largest unserved US market - not bad! It was twice the size of #2, DEN.
    And DUB was LAS's largest unserved market in Europe.
    I haven't looked at fares though - only traffic. On that basis, it's quite exciting.
    Hope it helps,
    James Pearson"

    So demand is probably only somewhere in the 20-30,000 figure…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    There’s likely still plenty of A321 routes in North America they could still make work like BUF, PIT, YUL,YQB. The issue with Western US/Canada is you need to fill a much larger aircraft, so PHX, SAN, PDX, YVR would be harder to make work.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Where have I implied You speculated on routes being served by AL? I was referring to the ‘Dublin routes News & general chat’ forum. You last posted there at 17h02 yesterday, but now speculating on this Forum, unless there’s a second Touistx73.

    Between both Forums You have speculated destination after destination. No offence intended but just believe there are companies paying BIG money to source destinations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    Definitely, I also thought it seemed unlikely when Kenny Jacobs said it, but it was probably an agenda thing to help get the cap lifted. Thanks



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    Yes, Beirut and Mexico City was a mess up on my part, 0 chance of that. But the others have a good chance, considering they all have airlines interested in operating them, DAA specifically stated that they are in talks with airlines to fly to Brazil and India, and they are top priority for new long haul. And Addis was served orepandemic, and Ethiopian said recently that they plan to serve DUB again once they get slots, which they have. I don’t think I’m being too unreasonable, but this is an Aer Lingus thread, so if you want to engage further, please do so in the Dublin routes general chat.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    So, what are You saying? One thread gives you a free reign to speculate on airlines flying from (wherever) to Dublin, while this one gives you freedom to speculate from Dublin to wherever?

    You mention Addis Ababa, if it was lucrative why aren’t AL taking it up?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    No chance of Aer Lingus doing ADD. Very little O&D, probably poor yields. It works for Ethiopian because they funnel people through their hub in Addis. Ethiopian will likely serve this route again, Aer Lingus, not a chance.
    Ethiopian mentioned in 2023 in an interview with Simple Flying that they planned to relaunch flights to Dublin, subject to slots, but that they didn’t receive them. They applied again this year and got slots for 2025. The route was only stopped because of the pandemic

    https://simpleflying.com/ethiopian-airlines-european-expansion-plans-revealed/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    But again, this is an Aer Lingus thread, so this conversation would be better had in the general DUB routes thread



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭lordleitrim


    So now Touristx73 had not only hijacked both threads, he's moderating them too! 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    I’m just saying conversations about LATAM and Ethiopian Airlines at DUB belong in the Dublin Airport general chat thread, not the Aer Lingus one. I’m being respectful here and making a valid point that maybe this discussion should be in the general DUB thread because it’s not related to Aer Lingus. I’m not trying to ‘moderate this thread’.

    Post edited by Touristx73 on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    If I said nothing and kept the conversation going, you’d probably complain about me posting in the wrong thread.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    Genuinely, how have I hijacked either thread, yes, I made some wacky suggestions on the other one, but I since apologised and withdrew them, and this thread Ive only posted in like 5 times



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    With all due respect, all the routes that were strange and unlikely that I suggested last week, I withdrew them and stopped pushing them days ago, yet they keep resurfacing, from you and a few others, not me. No disrespect intended, but I am not hijacking any thread, and politely suggesting a conversation about LATAM, Ethiopian Airlines etc at DUB, should be had in the general Dublin airport route news and chat thread and not the Aer Lingus one is not hijacking or moderating. I have never been disrespectful/rude to anyone in this thread so I don’t understand where this is coming from. Yes, I was overly active/optimistic last week but apologised/stopped days ago. No disrespect intended with this comment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    Fair, they said 3 new A321 TA routes, so probably YUL, based on the fact that they planned that one before, they did say one would be unexpected, so it could be something else. Maybe IND was the unexpected one though? Not an expert, just think YUL seems to have the best chance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20 ciandonn


    There is not a 0% chance of a San Diego route materialising in the next few years as Dexcom begins operating in Ireland. (They are headquartered in San Diego). I don’t think Aer Lingus will start the route anytime soon though as a twin aisle is likely not profitable enough at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Astral Nav


    Just to clarify, AL never operated to CPT. An Irish travel agent chartered the then LTU to do it with a 767 (tech stop) then later an A330 (direct). Great link to have but very seasonal, almost all leisure and apparently quite high over flight charges from various sub Saharan countries which didn't offer any real ATC service.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Touristx73


    Thanks for that insight. Never knew there was a direct service. Maybe, years down the line, after passenger cap being lifted, more TA routes being launched and if EI expands their fleet, a 3 weekly A330 to CPT October-March could be feasible. Leisure heavy, yes, but so is Vegas, which they recently launched, similar distance. In the near future, they should focus their A330s on North America, that’s their bread and butter, they know their market, but I wouldn’t rule out a seasonal CPT maybe 5-10 years down the line.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    There is no ATC service over most of Africa. Every time anyone has tried to install RADAR heads, VHF antennas etc, they get stolen.

    I know that Lufthansa have to all four Pilots on the flight deck for the full duration of their passage through unctorolled airspace, all exterior lights on, regular broadcasts on guard and intership frequencies.

    I'm not sure what if any ATC charges there are, but the insurance costs are extortionate due the uncontrolled element.



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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 10,074 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    TIME FOR A MOD POST

    you joined on 16th Nov. Within 48 hours you had posted over 60 times in a single thread.

    Now you have move to the Aer Lingus thread.

    You introduced new routes like a teenager playing Airline Manager or looking at a map for gaps in coverage.

    Airlines have decades of experience researching new routes. They look at international passenger data. They look at corporate contracts. They look aircraft availability and staffing levels. They look at alliance/interline/codeshare data. What's the cargo demand. What's the connection alternatives? Who else operates there?

    They do not start a route based solely on 1-2 variables.

    Just because a city is large doesn't mean a route there will work.

    You say that you have been a long time reader of the Dublin Routes thread. Yet you suggested very outlandish routes. And then attempted to defend your suggestion.

    (Dublin-Beirut being the star example here, "based on awareness of Ireland because of the Irish peacekeepers")

    In the other thread you used the Kenny Jacobs soundbite as evidence that Aer Lingus might start San Diego.

    So at this point I am going to 'mark you as a troll'. I don't think you are a deliberate troll, but your activity in the last few days has basically derailed one thread and you are (perhaps inadvertently) trying to do the same in this one.

    Many posters here are very up to date with commercial aviation, have friends in the industry and/or work in it themselves.

    Any plausible or probable route that had a glimmer of launch within the last 6-10 years has been discussed in the thread that you claim to have been a longtime reader of.

    Any further derailment/disruption of this forum will result in a suspension.

    MOD POST

    Post edited by Tenger on


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