Ireland's reliance on Corporation Tax receipts

He is a well known re reg who sees russian boogeymen in every thread

Pay no heed

However, these healthy surpluses are being driven by abnormal levels of corporate tax receipts mainly from US multinationals of nearly €30 billion this year, which are projected to grow to €40 billion in 2030 if there is no disruption.

The Department of Finance and Public Expenditure has estimated that about half of those receipts should be considered windfall in nature, as they may not persist in to the future. That means for 2025, windfall corporate tax receipts are expected to be €15.4 billion, growing to €19 billion by 2030.

Even the department of finance class half our corporate tax receipts as "windfall" in nature, and expect them not to last.

Will we be running a 19bn surplus in 2030? I doubt it. That leaves us open to a massive deficit should these windfall taxes dry up.

https://www.businesspost.ie/article/fine-gael-comfortable-with-spending-growing-portion-of-risky-corporate-tax-receipts-harris-and-d/?utm_source=latestnews&utm_medium=homepage

As has quite rightly been pointed out Trump tariffs will not result in multinationals relocating to the US overnight. To transfer a pharma plant would take a minimum of 2 years, and if you believe countries would not reciprocate you are deluded. So who is going to supply the rest of the world.

The short to medium term impact of Tariffs would be increased prices for US consumers driving up inflation, reduced exports from US companies as other countries reciprocate, if manufacturing does return to the US increased immigration to fill roles and labour shortages in certain sectors driving real goods / service shortages further driving inflation. Tariffs will and always have resulted in stagnation and inflation

meanwhile back in the real world

No no no, its only IP offshoring.

There is over 15bn in taxes related to IP that is "onshored" in Ireland, as per Department of Finance.

These are the taxes identified by the department as not actually relating to economic activity in this country, but instead by shifting profits around the world including through here. These windfall taxes are not tied to any plant, factory or headcount in this country - they are simply clever accounting practices that we happen to benefit from (for now).

Again the Department of Finance seems to recognise these risks and warn of the dangers to our tax base - but a few posters on boards.ie seem to know better? Lol

...

"Its nonsense that Ireland of all places" I am impressed that people outside the country, are actually aware that this country, is a banana republic…

More publicity Ireland doesn't need at this time, but the bike shed made the front page of the WSJ 🤣

Lads! Dont panic, the economic fundamentals are sound, like Bertie Aherne once said… Dont be worrying you simple little people, Simon Harris , Michael Martin and our world class politicians and civil servants, have it all under control…

If he wanted to re-shore the the operations, he needs to offer the carrot, not the stick. Take a page out of Biden's book with the chip act and incentivise those companies to open US pharma plants. Biden didn't go slapping 60% tariffs on chips from Ireland, Israel and Taiwan etc….

With pharma, they won't be uncompetitive in some meditations/products as they hold the patents. It's not like some other company can just open a US factory and start producing the products etc…

I'm not saying Trump is wrong is saying a trade deficit is bad, but you don't go correcting it by punishing US consumers with higher prices via tariffs. Pill V (under patent) will jump from $100 to $160 for the US consumer due to tariffs and it will take maybe 1 year for the company to open and US plant. When the US plant opens, well the consumers are already use to paying $160 for pill V, I can't see the pharma company offering it cheaper!