Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Scholz is in campaign mode after his coalition collapsed and they have to hold elections and his popularity keeps approaching absolute zero

he is unlikely to return as Germans are favouring the much more pro Ukraine anti Russia CDU

Any analysis of German actions that ignores the election elephant in the room is questionable at this time

I wondered if Scholz's call at this particular time had something to do with the upcoming election in Germany also? There is political disruption going on there too.

Was thinking could he be trying to show German Ukraine aid "sceptics" (probably more those falling on his own side of politics, not the ilk of AfD members!) that he is not averse to other routes if they become available i.e. negotiations with Russia?

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-scholz-calls-putin-for-first-time-in-2-years/a-70796017

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/15/scholz-urges-putin-in-phone-call-to-negotiate-with-ukraine

Sounds like he got the usual lecture from Putin, and there's been no movement there at all. I suppose why should he change now, when he thinks it is looking up and he has a friendly incoming POTUS on his side come Jan.? May be a sunk cost fallacy operating there too, Putin just cannot accept anything other than all his goals of Feb 2022 met given the horrible cost.

On the contrary to what you seem to believe, IMO the US President cannot click his fingers and end this. There's nothing magical about Trump or people around him. He can't order Putin to stop and come to the table, all he can do is deny Ukraine US support (which he probably will) and cause more people to suffer and die in Ukraine, possibly cause them to lose the war later, after more fighting.

Think we could see war escalate again next year rather than any kind of settlement come into view. We've already seen the order has gone out, Russia has garnered support troops from NK (this was significant, despite the total and utter lack of reaction to it) and started pushing harder once again, since Trump has been elected.

Let’s put all this talk of Russia being a superpower behind us.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/how-ukrainian-troops-are-fighting-to-take-back-the-black-sea-one-oil-rig-at-a-time-lw369mzrz

A ‘superpower’ that doesn’t even have air superiority, never mind air supremacy. As for the Russian navy skulking far away from the action. LOL.

The Times article is behind a paywall, but details how Ukranian special forces attack oil rigs dotted around the coast of Ukraine. They came under attack from the air and downed the Russian aircraft with a stinger.

Military superpower you say? Nah, a degenerate mafia state spiralling to its Putin led destruction.

North Korea's appetite for eating hairy mollies! 🤣[edit; hairy mollies are caterpillars, in case people thought I was been dirty]

Spending by the USA on helping Ukraine deal with putin's terrorist attacks has resulted from what I can see in a very good result for the USA in weakening the threat to international peace from putin. They have made dramatic announcements of support but in 2023 it spent less than 3% of the defense budget on mass destruction of putin's forces as russia pours quarter of their economies spending on a war where they have destroyed their reputation as a military power and pushed millions of Ukrainians to hate them for generations. Trump has said he wants to bring the war to a quick end but the only way to do this I can see is for putin to turn his terrorist forces around and march them back out of Ukraine. On balance I think there is more chance of Trump boosting US support for Ukraine and spending on US arms manufacturing to bring the conflict to a quicker end rather than cutting support and leading to the war of attrition that Ukraine is winning drag on for longer.

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/russia-ukraine/

All reliable mappers now reporting on further advances in Kupyansk as the Russians have formed a stronghold in the industrial sector and reinforcement of reserves have arrived in the area.

Looks like they were not kicked out after all.

Don't think it can yet be confirmed for certain. There are conflicting accounts as to whether the battle for the city is underway or not.

It's a really important target for Russia and equally a very important hold for Ukraine so the fighting probably going to be fierce. Plus the Russians would have to cross the river for the western side of the city.

Yes anything could have happened but here is another report showing pictures of dead terrorists putin sent to their deaths in an ambush by the armed forces of Ukraine in the same area you are posting about. Also noted is the terrorists using scooters as a means to move to more advanced positions demonstrating how they no longer require armour to get killed in Ukraine.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/in-kharkiv-region-3rd-brigade-eliminates-39-russians-in-ambush/

Fair point. I remember Putin saying in a speech last year on the need to create a buffer zone with Ukraine so maybe they are planning on just taking the territory east of the river. It looks quite plausible seeing as that region seems to be getting cut into small pieces lately and most of the bridges have been blown up.

Do you reckon that'll be good for the Kharkiv front once Putin has achieved his goal? Thinks might calm down?

I get what you mean, they are going all out anyway…

Since Trump won, as you say we already have Russia roping in NK and throwing more soldiers into attacks in Kursk. Yes, they die and are maimed in huge numbers and old Soviet vehicles get blown to bits, but Putin doesn't seem to care ("some of you may die" etc.). They manage to kill Ukrainian soldiers, and they can gradually take ground back, so it is not good.

As for further escalation, we might see the various "friends of Russia" like China stepping in deeper to make good equipment shortages that emerge for Russia if they believe they can throw in more support and help Putin to a stronger position without consequence for a low cost, if US engagement tails off. The more help Russia's military gets off them, the more damage they can do in Ukraine unfortunately.

e.g. saw this story today on possible manufacture of military drones for Russia in China. If true, well that is the last of the "red lines" of this US admin. finally crossed as regards Chinese aid to Russia in the war, probably with no reaction at all from the US, given Biden is a lame duck now and a Trump admin. probably won't give a crap.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-china-drone-production-russia-war-in-ukraine/

"While I don't expect a mass back lash due to the authoritarian nature of putin's empire there is increasingly a chance that some one with wealth in putin's empire will find a way to make his reign that is so destructive to their wealth come to an abrupt end."

Let's hope it happens sooner rather than later or it might be too late for Ukraine.

To show you how much of a pr!ck Musk is he was only on a call with Zelensky and Trump the other day.

I wouldn’t even think of Ireland providing military aid. They’ve **** all to provide

Simon Harris and Michael Martin have lots of words to provide.

If words were ammunition, Simon Harris and Michael Martin could certainly provide.