Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Ending the conflict in Ukraine to save lives - on both sides - while securing a deal that both can live with even if its not 100% of what they want? Its not going to be a 50-50 draw, but it doesn't have to be a 100% defeat for Ukraine either.

The "friends of Ukraine" absolutely do not want negotiations, but the inhabitants of Pokrovsk do.

No, but if you're balls deep into NATO stronk then it might seem that way from where you are.

Well that and the fact that if you invade then it's becomes your dependency, and no one wants to take on Russia as a going concern, despite all its resources.

I don’t understand what Scholz is at either by ringing Putin. Scholz loved to publicly express how he doesn’t want to “escalate” the conflict. He refuses to send the Taurus missiles to aid Ukraine. Russia only backs down when it gets push-back, not when a spineless leader asks him to please come to the negotiation table.

Scholz knows his neck is on the line back home after the collapse of his government and is scrambling to make himself somewhat relevant, at the expense of Ukraine.

The ruble dropped below 0.01 dollar today too.

Unfortunately not by PPP, it is the 4th largest in the world with the 6th largest oil reserves along with an enormous standing army, stock of conventional muntions and military equipment (albeit dwindling). That's not to mention the biggest inventory of nuclear weapons globally and tremendous soft power globally. Their position as a regional power isn't surprising at all. We can't fool ourselves into complacany. It will take a dedicated and sustained effort from all NATO countries to turn this around, no more slow walking aid and no more enforcing arbitrary rules on where and when the Ukrainians can strike back. Gloves off approach.

Does this mean anything? The Turkish lira is worth 1/10th of it's value from 7 years ago, the ruble has halved in the same timeframe. Turkey obviously isn't in a strong position but still a functioning country despite much worse inflation and high interest rates than Russia. Things can get a lot worse in Russia and there might be no back lash.

So, if any negotiated peace is off the table and Ukraine - with vague/limited NATO support - has to inflict an unconditional surrender upon Russia, what is your theory of victory?

What is the plan? What is the strategy? Taking into account the realistic constraints of course.

What do you tell the inhabitants of Pokrovsk to convince them they have to suffer death, despair and the destruction of their town to achieve your defined victory?

The Ukrainians could choose to not make civilian towns into battlefields by creating fortifications outside of civillian areas. They are within their rights to make them into battlefields, but its a choice they make. If civilian lives and towns are your top priority, you don't turn their homes into bunkers.

The Russian strategy of bypassing strongly held towns and forcing their defenders to retreat by flanking them does promise to reduce the damage to civilians and their homes from here until the end of the conflict. I think everyone will welcome that.

I do note though that your performative anger dodges the question - if negotiations are off the table, then how does Ukraine win militarily in your opinion?

The strategy is clearly to ramp up military support to force Russia to actually want to negotiate. Because right now they want their main aims which is fully conquer the Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye.

That isn't a strategy for victory within your own terms. Forcing "Russia to actually want to negotiate" is a lose condition. You said yourself that negotiations would just:

set a precedent for many more wars in future where the aggressor can later after to "peace". Even in the case of Ukraine, Putin in 3 years could go again, sieze another 10% of Ukraine and the likes of you would be calling for a "peace" deal to save lives.

So by your own definition, Ukraine has to win a total, unconditional victory now, without any negotiations. What is the viable strategy to do that in your opinion? When you attack people who argue for negotiations, what is your "no negotiations" alternative?

Ukraine at the bare minimum need to be able to halt Russia's advances otherwise why would Russia stop. Putin has no interest currently unless Ukraine were to give up and give Russia more territory. Do you like the sound of that?

Hard to make a deal with Putin. He goes back on what he says as a matter of course.

"A 100..."

I've never seen a native English speaker write it like that. Where are you from Sand? Your English is eloquent.

They don't have to make a settlement. Zoom out!: I always say this to those dooming over Russian gains on maps. The map has barely changed since the winter of 2022. The Russians have thrown everything at this and the Ukrainians still hold a large amount of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson which are supposedly constitutionally Russian.

Ukraine just has to hold on a defend the best it can. Sooner or later Russia will want a ceasefire with minimal conditions. This will effectively partition Ukraine along the Line of contact.