Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

As I've said many a time; no one can be this incompetent.

Failure? I've long stopped believing that rocketing prices is anything other than an intentional outcome

Is there any poster here that disagrees with this statement?

As it was in the Celtic tiger, so it is again. Everything that can be possibly done is thrown in to pump prices.

Absolutely nothing done in an effort to cool price inflation

I completely disagree because nobody who makes the claim can actually point out how or why they are doing it? The can make claims without proof so somehow they are geniuses at hiding when in reality it is a very complex issue

Claims like all TDs are landlords making laws to favour themselves yet laws brought in have punished landlords. So how and what have they done to favour landlords?

I replace 2 floorboards and it cost 50 euro for the wood. It used to be about 10euro. Materials are way more expensive than 5 years ago

I think it's as much a case that they simply don't care about the outcomes of their actions because they will never be affected by them.

We can assume one of two things; the state is run by incompetents who have created this mayhem because they do not know what they are doing, and don't care about the results. Or, alternatively, the state is run by malicious individuals who are doing this deliberately because it benefits them.

Personally, I think it's both. However, regardless, what they either done or allowed to happen under their watch is unforgivable. There are people in power (in government and in the civil service) who simply should not be allowed anywhere near positions of influence.

Until the day arrives when politicians and civil servants are faced with severe consequences for their misbehaviour, Ireland will stumble from one disaster to the next.

"bad decisions are taken to benefit them politically in the short term."

But that is malicious behaviour. If I do something that I know will harm someone else but benefit me, then I have ethically done something wrong. Continuing to do this because admitting that I was wrong would bring negative consequences onto me is even worse.

I wouldn't worry about the political right. If Ireland does produce a perceived "right-wing" political entity, it will likely come in the form of a Donald Trump figure or, God help us, an utterly unctuous individual like Farage. That is to say, a centrist who will make small concessions to populism whilst delivering nothing but a continuation of globalist policy. Mind you, Paddy Trump could at least be amusing…

I don't think most politicians and bureaucrats are actively malicious, though there are a few that do strike me as being genuinely sinister (not naming names.) My point is more that they are indifferent and insulated from the consequences of their actions.

Honestly, I see no political way out of this. The crisis will continue until something external from Ireland changes the circumstances that created it. I will vote in the upcoming election, but I consider it a fairly pointless action when all is said and done.

The thing is that is completely different to what I responded to. You are saying they don't care where as others are saying they are conspiring to make sure prices go up for their own benefit. You aren't agreeing.

You don't seem to understand what the civil service do and their role. They have no say on government policies and just implement what they are told by the government. You might as well be angry at a form you have to fill out.

Politicians take their que from the public and the public don't think of the ramifications. Irish public really don't like the government to dictate things but if they see punishment policies against a smaller group like landlords it is really loved by the public. The fact it made smaller landlords leave the market a reduce rentals people still think this was good because it meant people could buy these properties. You will see this mentioned in other threads which completely ignores the reduction in property occupancy rate meaning less room for people overall.

What people here are doing is looking at the outcome and saying how the government did everything with intent to hurt the public. When in reality the government ignored expert advice and followed what the public wanted. I believe it was about 2010 that ERSI said the government should fund developers to build housing. The public were very angry and claim (another conspiracy) that this was to help out their developer friends. The government decided to ignore the experts and follow the public wishes. Politicians did as asked but then you get (conspiracy theory 2) they did this so house prices would rise to suit themselves. That is literally a no win situation.

In terms of solving the accommodation crisis the key determination to make is whether it is a housing bubble or a housing shortage.

If it is a housing bubble then solving it involves trying to curb irrational investment through taxation, interest rates or other means.

If it is a housing shortage then you want to encourage investment as much as possible.

Obviously this is simplifying things greatly but you can see that solutions to fix one problem are kind of at odds with solutions to fix the other.

Agreed. I am not an FFG voter, but I dont believe they are doing all they can to inflate prices.

I believe they are trying to encourage investment and jobs and this has worked incredibly over the past number of years; perhaps almost too well.

Housing simply hasn't kept up with demand from people wanting to live here.

We have the highest build rate per capita vs 19 euroconstruct european countries in 2024!

We are the top of the league for housing output in europe, yet still some say we just purposely aren't building.

God love those people if we were only building at the same rate as the UK, or even at the european average!

2025 will see another increase in output and the highest number of new homes delivered in ireland since 2008.

We also have to consider the alternative, which is really only a SF led govt.

I don't see any circumstance in which the anti-private investment led approach from SF does not lead to a large reduction in new homes being built over the next 5 yr govt term.

The approach we have with FFG sure ain't perfect, but its absolutley the best option WE have and is leading the scorecard across europe.

In either case, speculative investment by buying and selling homes and treating them like equities should be discouraged, as this does not add supply to market. This is what fuels a bubble.

New supply should be allowed and encouraged, 0 rated for VAT, measures taken to reduce input costs like land, etc. Instead of throwing money at the demand side of the market which causes a bubble in either scenario

We have a 3.9% vacancy rate across the country; a record low.

Dublin has a 1.2% rate, the lowest in the country. There are very high rates in Mayo, Donegal, Leitrim and other rural areas, but I dont think thats where the housing demand is generally.

Front page of the business post

WE CAN'T BUILD Top developer lashes government on housing

We haven't a site where there isn't a water or electricity problem

Builders contemplating laying off workers due to planning, water or electricity connection issues

Yet we are the best in Europe apparently

Its a shortage, not a bubble. The economy is strong and there are lots of jobs being created. There is not enough people here to do these jobs so they come from overseas. Add these workers to the thousands of returning Irish, students, refugees, asylum seekers and you easily have 100,000 extra people in the country every year. Unless there is a major slow down in the economy or a drastic change in government policy, accommodation shortages and price rises will continue.

'Increase the stamp duty massively on foreign buyers of Irish property.'

Great idea. Many foreign buyers are just looking for assets to park money in that will keep up with (true) monetary inflation. With bonds the way they are under this monetary system, the housing market becomes a dumping ground for free floating cash.

No way are we obliged to play along with that. That is an insane distortion of housing which no one could foresee.