Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

100 cheap plutonium drones would poison a lot of Russians. As J62 said, if Ukraine goes down Russia must go down too.

Apparently Ukraine has the delivery system for a nuclear device, their own ballistic missiles , which reportedly coming into service ,wether they could handle a nuclear bomb is moot ,

But , nuclear weapons are of limited use , basically for -Mutually Assured Destruction

If the other side has nukes - and you don't , then in theory you can be nuked with impunity ,

But by the same logic I can't nuke you without expecting nuclear retaliation,

So in an invasion scenario - when do you launch nuclear weapons,? knowing that you'll doom most of your population ,!

Ukraine has invaded kursk -and tbere was no nuclear response ..

Another day another war crime.

give a man a fish and he will feed his family for a day.

But give a motivated crew a Leopard 2A4 Tank, and they will make utter mincemeat out of an advancing column of Russian meat.. Taking out 47 infantry, 2 tanks, a BTR as well as 3 other armoured vehicles…. And a motorbike!

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1856699381300236663?s=46

Another sign that Russia is winning apparantly…

Just to recap, if I remember rightly about a year ago desert cross quads appeared to get Russians to the front, and then around March dirt bikes started appearing. Now there's a distinct lack of Russian mine clearing equipment which is accelerating Russian casualties, and now they're turning to movie props?

I know everyone in Moscow is being hyper conscience about stating the obvious, but at some stage those upholding Putin's narrative on Moscow street level must simply know the jig is up, or is soon to be.

If he heads for the bunker then I can imagine it having all kinds of implications in the western world with infiltrators spilling beans in exchange for immunity now that sugar daddy is scurrying.

The Economist - which is very pro-Ukrainian - is reporting that morale is low in Ukraine, and that Zelensky is being lied to by the Ukrainian military. While Zelensky has refused to hold elections (along with banning opposition parties, media and even oppressing the orthodox church), there's apparently increasing talk in Ukraine of an election in 2025.

Regional election headquarters are mobilising, and work on candidate lists is beginning. The representatives of one likely presidential rival to Volodymyr Zelensky say that Ukraine needs elections; but they worry about making a public statement to this effect, fearing a fierce backlash from the presidential office. If elections were held tomorrow, Mr Zelensky would struggle to repeat the success of the landslide win he secured in 2019. Nearly three years into the Russian invasion, he is no longer seen as the undisputed war leader he once was. 

However, they may run out of time to hold an election. The Economist reports that the situation is far worse than the Ukrainian military is allowing to be reported generally, and that even Zelensky himself is being kept unaware of just how bad things are. There have been accounts of Zelensky flying into rages and throwing tantrums in the past, so perhaps that explains the reluctance of the generals.

The deteriorating situation on the front lines is already rippling through society. Dmytro Povorotny, a military chaplain, sees it in the new soldiers he speaks to. “There are a lot of unmotivated men. They are fighting because that’s the only way they stay alive.” The army is censoring the most negative news to avoid fanning flames back home, he says. A senior military official agrees. Even Mr Zelensky is being shielded from the truth. “It’s not even that he’s being kept in a warm bath,” the source says, using a local idiom to suggest the president was being cocooned by his top officials. “He’s being kept in a sauna.”

The Financial Times - also extremely pro-Ukrainian - is also reporting very bad news for the Ukrainians. The Russian attacks are not slowing as stories of mass casualties might imply. They're apparently gathering pace. It's the Ukrainians who are suffering from heavy casualties.

Russian forces are now advancing at a faster rate than at any point since 2022. Ukrainian officials have admitted that their defences are “crumbling” amid manpower shortages.
Kyiv expects the offensive to gather pace

Ukraine’s troops are enduring relentless Russian air and ground assaults. A commander of an artillery unit near Kurakhove where the fighting is most intense told the FT on Monday that Russian troops were “attacking from three sides”. He and his troops “are ready to pull back” he said, “but we do not have the order from the top yet”.

In my opinion, the defenders of Kurakhove could be waiting for a long time before the order to pull back is sent.

CDS [Centre for Defence Strategies, based in Ukraine itself], the military think-tank, estimated that by December, “the front line will probably shift 30-35 km west of its current position”.

Major General Dmytro Marchenko last month said that the eastern front was “crumbling” owing to shortages of ammunition and manpower. “People are very exhausted. They simply cannot hold the fronts they are on,” he said.

December is just 3-4 weeks away. For a Ukrainian think tank to predict a fall back of up to 35km west in that time seems really pessimistic. It might be well founded given Marchenko's comments (he is the guy who resigned last week for health reasons), but I wonder if its deliberately setting a low bar for the Ukrainians to outperform?

They also talk about widespread exhaustion in the serving soldiers, and demoralisation in the would be replacements

Kyiv has been wary of passing a law on demobilisation for fear it could lead to an exodus of soldiers.
“A lot of guys now see mobilisation as a death sentence,” said one senior soldier who joined the army in spring 2022 and has not had a break since.

Stanislav Aseyev, a prominent Ukrainian journalist turned soldier, said that “without a clear answer about the period of service and quality of training, the recruits will be as demoralised and ineffective as the current battle-weary infantry”.

They go on to say that gaps in the infantry units (which suffer the heaviest casualties and desertion rates) are being plugged by reassigning men from the air force and support roles, which is not a good sign.

The second largest military in the world is invading it's neutral neighbour, the situation has always been incredibly difficult for Ukraine. As such it's always been a huge battle to keep morale up. Now we're 2 and a half years in. Everyone knows this, that it's critical for Ukraine to keep morale, it's literally their lifeline, as supporters of Ukraine people understand this

The majority of Ukrainian people are against an election during war. It doesn't make much sense and it's almost impossible to campaign under those circumstances.

Haven't seen any reports of Zelensky systematically throwing "tantrums", the guy has been under extreme pressure since day 1, any leader under invasion is under immense stress, so far he's widely considered to have done a good job under the circumstances

The soldiers are exhausted, they have been fighting for 2 and a half years against a brutal military. Morale is difficult. Mobilisation is difficult. Recruitment is difficult. They have done extraordinarily well. They defied every military analyst at the outbreak and have performed beyond expectations. They have been doing that with two arms tied behind their backs and no foreign troops.

A European country is being illegally invaded, it's people being murdered, it's children being forced to speak another language. Concern-trolling it's situation and demonstrating such spite for support of that country is bizarre to say the least, it betrays some seriously warped world views.

How badly Ukraine needs some rainfall.

Most objective observers know that Ukraine is losing the war but I don't think an election would do Ukraine any favours at the current time. It would lead to more uncertainty, create paranoia and maybe recriminations.

Ukraine has big decisions to make very soon and they need political stability at the top.

they saw something that confirmed what they thought (even though in the completely wrong context), and clung to it.

That’s a good point he truck that took out Kerch bridge came from Russian direction and somehow (brown envelopes) got through all the security and X-ray scans

The one thing concerned trolling style cant account for is the fact that if these soldiers don’t fight they and their families will be exterminated

There has been multiple horror stories on bbc and telegraph Ukraine war podcasts about how Russians hunt and torture and disappear anyone even remotely connected to Ukrainian state or military including veterans and families who have been out of military for decades

There is this constant attempt at paint a picture as if Ukraine are refusing to negotiate, ignoring the Kremlin daily openly stating that they will not negotiate and continue to seek extermination of Ukraine