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Energy infrastructure

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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    But, again, that is no different if you decide to rely on a small number of gas generators and the oil and gas industry.

    You can talk about nationalisation etc. if you want, but in the end, you are reliant on commercial markets. Whether that is buying gas from the oil and gas industry or buying wind turbines from manufacturers, etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,418 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    The competition includes competition from suppliers on the continent, via improved interconnections: we become more tightly integrated with the European energy market, and that makes it harder to price-gouge. Our domestic wind-energy producers will be trying to sell into that market, but they are also going to be competing with continental solar and wind (and, to a lesser extent, nuclear energy; nuclear rarely contributes to surplus, exportable energy)

    Gas still stays around (nobody serious is talking about an energy mix with 0% gas - not yet), but it's there for those rare events when nobody has spare energy to sell to us.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭josip




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CoffeeImpala


    Everyone else seems to have been caught up in the gas v wind debate. I'm curious why you think a state system will provide cheaper electricity. If that was the case the ESB would be winning all of the supply tenders.

    I think history has shown that public sector inefficiency is a much bigger cost to consumers than the profits of private businesses.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    No, but they can certainly bring down wholesale costs.

    Grid stabilisation is one service, but it isn't the only part of the market that drives costs.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,999 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    We will be limited on the continental import amounts by the capacity of our interconnecters.
    Anything over that amount will be price gouged.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,999 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    ESB aren’t allowed provide extra generation due to competition law afaik.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,418 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Perfect is the enemy of good.

    So what if we occasionally saturate our interconnector capacity. Sometimes we will be doing that by exporting energy: every Megawatt-hour we sell is profit that the generator doesn't have to charge Irish customers for. Overall, the competition puts downward pressure on pricing.

    But if you imagine that Irish electricity is every going to get to the low prices of densely-populated European countries that are highly interconnected with their neighbours, then you'll be disappointed. Living on an island comes with costs.

    One of our costs is distribution: our dispersed rural population means our low-voltage (230V) network is disproportionately large in comparison with our transmission network. That means more power loss, and higher costs. We either decide that this is an acceptable price to pay for living this way, or we live closer together to make it cheaper: either is an equally valid choice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,999 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    100% agree which is why this myth of wind= cheap is a lie.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,418 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    What’s cheaper? Wind is less than half the price of gas, even after price-supports for wind generators. There's no myth.

    Right now, we've expensive transport and very expensive generation. We'll move to cheaper generation and expensive transport, but a lot of our generation will be in rural areas which will offset some of that transportation cost.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,396 ✭✭✭gjim


    Not according to the numbers crunched by anyone who has analyzed the electricity generation sector. From US government agencies like EIA to private researchers like Lazard and endless academic papers, have all concluded that wind generation is relatively cheap. This isn't some unknowable - the cost of wind generation has been very deeply studied and the conclusions are convincing as it's a very data-rich field.

    A lot of confusion about how wholesale prices are set and their relationship to wind generation. In simplified terms, an auction is held where generators bid to supply electricity to the grid for a specific 15 minute period in the future. The generators will enter bids - which is the minimum price they will accept and the quantity of electricity they can provide. At the end of the auction process a settlement price is calculated which captures just enough of the bids (which had minimum prices under the settlement price) to ensure enough overall quantity is guaranteed to meet the projected demand for that 15 minute period. Thus only the lower priced bids are included but the settlement price is not directly related to the lowest bid price but the "highest of the lowest" bid price.

    The wind generators will generally bid with prices of zero or effectively zero as they have no marginal costs. So they are (up to technical limitations with handling unsynchronized power) always winners in the auction.

    But because gas remains such a big component of our generation capacity, this means that the settlement price is most often set by the price of the gas bids - by definition higher than that of any wind bid. This means that wholesale electricity prices in Ireland will remain tied to the cost of gas until there is enough alternative (cheaper) capacity bidding in these auctions to edge out gas. Then the price will fall to the next lowest source. This is why not much seems to happen to wholesale prices for long periods during the transition to renewables - the changes happen in steps. But sometimes the steps are very dramatic and this has been observed in a few markets - where the critical mass of renewables forces wholesale prices to zero or negative.

    The idea that wholesale electricity would be cheaper without wind generators makes no sense given the auction structure - it wouldn't change gas' role in setting wholesale prices - it would in fact cement it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,741 ✭✭✭✭josip


    From your post it would seem that there are intrinsic costs to gas that mean it can never be as low as wind. So as long as there is 1 gas generator active on the grid, we will not get the full cost benefit of wind/solar. Which is why I asked earlier, are Synchronous Condensers the only viable option to eliminate gas from our grid ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,898 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    That is utter fantasy in so many ways. Energy prices have only gone one way over the past 20 years of wind developer led energy policies. The market is controlled by a few companies price gouging consumers with a totally captured Energy "Regulator" constantly rubber stamping this long running charade!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,418 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    Plot the price of gas against our energy prices over the last 20 years....and you will still blame wind, because I feel you aren't interested in thinking about the problem, only in having your existing beliefs validated.

    And have a look at where we get our energy from right now : how is the ownership of the fossil fuel supply market? Lots of family-run gas fields ensuring healthy competition, right? Shame that those "families" are monarchs and oligarchs controlling totalitarian states that aren't above playing politics with energy sales...

    When Russia or Qatar price-gouges us on gas, it's just peachy, I suppose, but in your view we'll have less control over companies within our borders operating under our laws?

    Post edited by KrisW1001 on


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Well there are a few points about that.

    You need 1 gas generator, but there are over a dozen gas generators, all competing with one another to be chosen as the 1 to run during that period, that will naturally bring the price of that gas generation down.

    The alternative if we had no wind/solar, would be that you would need all the available gas generators and they would have no reason to compete with each other on price.

    Of course it doesn't have to be natural gas, it could be biogas produced by AD. I know biogas is understandably controversial, but if we are just talking about the last 5% it should be fine.

    Yes a Synchronous Condenser with a lot of batteries behind it could also be a great option to compete with those gas generators.

    BTW Yes, batteries on their own aren't synchronous, but behind a Synchronous Condenser they act as such.

    At the moment we use a lot of expensive gas, in future we will use far less gas and it will have to compete with biogas and hydrogen and Synchronous Condensers and hydro.

    There is also a broader market question about the price of gas, keep in mind, gas has been historically cheap, the price greatly increased with the war in Ukraine, as demand was high, but supply was suddenly greatly reduced, thus the high prices. However if the whole of Europe does the same as us, greatly reducing their gas demand, well those gas prices will drop again if demand is lower then the available supply. I don't think it will hit pre 2022 levels, as LNG has higher shipping costs then piped gas, but it should end up much closer. Of course there is also then carbon pricing, which will only increase over time.

    Post edited by bk on


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    BTW One very interesting thought, you can convert existing coal and gas generators into Synchronous Condensers. They are basically big turbines + generators, they can be upgraded with a clutch to run as a synchronous condenser. In fact some newer gas generators are being built now with this ability built in from the start.

    So you have a generator which mostly runs as a synchronous condenser, but if the need arrives you can run the turbine with gas or biogas (or even oil). Offers great flexibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,999 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    That’s a good point.
    Has this been done on ESB grid or any other utility grid yet?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,060 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Does the auction system need to change to take account of strategic interests -

    Having a lot of older - less efficient - but very necessary generation available for either that calm fortnight or Christmas week costs money , so the likes of moneypoint, tarbert even aghada 1, so they have to charge a fortune to cover their yearly costs and profit , before adding in the fuel . But when they charge a small fortune to power up for a week or two , the more efficient often closed cycle stations get that vast sum as well , which seems counter intuitive,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Not in Ireland, we have bought a new one, however multiple have been done in Germany and California at old coal power plants over the last decade. In terms of gas, Tennessee is currently building 10 new combined gas generator / synchronous condensers, going online in the next few months.

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/zombie-coal-plants-reanimated-to-stabilize-the-grid

    https://www.sssgears.co.uk/en/case-studies/tennessee-valley/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,890 ✭✭✭Apogee


    I'm sure the original application was mentioned somewhere on this thread, but I can't find the OP with the godforsaken search facility on this site. Looks like the 800MWh battery storage project in Waterford has been given conditional planning approval

    image.png image.png

    https://thecurrency.news/articles/150724/ambitious-allen-family-backed-battery-storage-project-awaits-planning-verdict/

    https://www.eplanning.ie/WaterfordCCC/AppFileRefDetails/2460163/0



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,060 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Thats a fairly sizeable grid storage/ peaker plant , I know there's plenty of batteries doing grid balancing ,but will this be the first to operate primarily as a peaker ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 147 ✭✭howsshenow


    Germany no wind or solar currently !

    https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1854560427633422494

    & another ...Your November reminder to hope for a windy, wet, and warm winter. The first Dunkelflaute of the 2024-25 season forced a large withdrawal of gas from storage. With storage at ~95% at the start of the season, one Dunkelflaute and/or cold snap isn't a problem. Multiple will be.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    That is currently a record high gas storage level! The goal was 90% by November 1st and this goal was hit back in August, 10 weeks ahead of schedule!

    Also don't forget they continue to get supplies of new gas throughout the winter both piped from Norway and via LNG ships. LNG ships act as a storage mechanism and Germany has two new floating reclassification units (FSRUs) coming online at the moment, just before winter, greatly increasing capacity.

    BTW The actual tweet is interesting:

    In the past 2 days, Germany has gone through what’s known as a “dark doldrums” period, where no electricity was generated from solar or wind. As a result, wholesale electricity prices spiked at times to >€800 per megawatt hour—10 times the usual avg.

    Oh, look at that, renewables do keep prices low, when there are no renewables the price shoots up ten fold!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,396 ✭✭✭gjim


    There is a separate market/mechanism to pay for holding capacity in reserve. I don't know much about it, but my understanding is that these guys are getting paid for just being available - and, in return, when called on to provide electricity cannot just bid whatever they want.

    For the ahead-of-time market, I'm not what you could do to change it - I can't see how having multiple settlement prices would work. Also there's an argument that these occasional high prices provide a valuable market signal. They create an incentive for competition to enter the market - particularly for sources which are uncorrelated with wind like solar and batteries as they will be around to pick up a premium when wind isn't delivering.

    And anyway, as more more modern/cheaper capacity is added - wind, solar and batteries - even with variance, the amount of time when these legacy generators have to fire up gets smaller and smaller.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,060 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I get that , the legacy generators are really only for a week or 2 like we have at the moment,calm and dull , I know money point is being converted to oil , is tarbert being retained ? , what other legacy generators do we have to call on ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Tarbert is being converted to an Open Cycle Gas Turbine with the ability to run on Biofuel/HVO. It is supposed to be ready by 2027. It actually won one of the Capacity Market auctions from 2027 that gjim mentions above.

    Depends on what you mean by legacy generators. We have a large number of gas generators around the country. They can all run on oil as a secondary fuel if necessary.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 94,820 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    AFAIK most if not all of the main gas turbine plants have oil storage on site in case of short term disruption to gas supplies. Anyone know the minimum fuel reserves ?

    Most are at ports anyway and Huntstown is connected to port by M50 / port tunnel.

    Tynagh at 400MW looks to be the most isolated but has large storage tanks. The others are ~ 100MW or less.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,626 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    They are required to have 3 - 5 days of oil on hand and then there is the national oil reserve which has 90 days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭gossamerfabric


    dunkelflaute here this week.

    local grid can't supply enough electricity to the cars in the company car parks so they are being throttled and staff complaining their cars aren't charged in the evening

    EVs are still small proportion of the national fleet.

    Fossil fuelled Central heating is being banned and heat pumps expected to take over in coming years.

    the datacentres on campus have more KI workload and cryptography than ever before.

    The demand on the grid will go through the roof.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,396 ✭✭✭gjim


    local grid can't supply enough electricity to the cars in the company car parks so they are being throttled and staff complaining their cars aren't charged in the evening

    Explain this one to me?



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