Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There are 14000 in emergency accommodation.

And 440,000 young adults still living at home with parents.

Not to mention the number who emigrate due to the housing crisis - just because we don't have 500k rough sleepers does not mean the demand or need for 200k+ houses/apartments does not exist.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2024/0620/1446576-ireland-young-adults-living-at-home-parents-cso-statistics-housing/

All of that is true, but cost of housing was increasing rapidly and supply was restricted all the way back to 2015. People were protesting rising homelessness when I moved to Dublin in 2016 and it was tough to find decent accommodation.

ESRI reported that over 60 thousand people were on the housing list in 2021. This has been a problem for a decade, so the person setting targets in 2021 was already at least 5 years behind the curve, and that's only gotten worse since.

You're right that it's not realistic to expect 60k completions, but an acknowledgement from the government that their housing targets are completely meaningless and they have completely failed to contain the issue for over a decade would be a start.

You're wrong about a majority of people in Ireland wanting continuous house price increases. 69% of the population would support a significant drop in the price of houses, including even 63% of home owners. Only 20% would oppose a drop in prices[1] .

Most people in this country are either renters, or only own the property they live in. In either scenario they don't really benefit from the rapid increase in home prices.

But they do experience the negative side effects - either directly in being priced out of the market to buy / having to get a larger mortgage, indirectly in the local community through a lack of teachers or gardai, professionally themselves when their company can't hire staff because of the housing market, or socially through their friends, relatives or children not being able to buy/rent.

On top of that most Irish people are also fundamentally good people still, they don't like seeing 15,000 homeless people, 5000 homeless kids, 500,000 young people forced to live in their parents houses in their 30s etc - they want everyone to have the opportunity to buy their own home for a reasonable price if they work hard.

Our current government though yes absolutely - they say otherwise in interviews, but the policies over the last decade now have all been very clearly aimed to do one thing - to increase house prices.

There are too many instantly effective policies (like raising stamp duty significantly for foreign buyers as discussed here recently) they could implement overnight, which they haven't/won't, for no explainable reason.

Its gone well beyond incompetence at this stage, its now very obvious deliberate.

[1]https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/poll-sinn-feins-300000-house-price-gamble-pays-off/a382993578.html

Most of this is related to the pension time bomb. Only a small minority is adequately prepared for retirement, but the intent, at least in the past, was that everyone would own their home by the time they retired. The asset's value was used to pay for care like the Fair Deal scheme here and equity release schemes in the UK. Worth reminding people that housing appreciation was reported positively in past decades.

Now people are completely f*cked. Can't buy a house because they're too expensive. Can't pay a pension because the rent is too high.

I was on the r/Cork Reddit forum and the consensus is that house prices have risen 20k this year alone, and 50k since 2022. That's utter madness. I'm sure Dublin is worse!

Well there’s an election coming up, if people think X is an issue no time like next few weeks to make themselves heard and then Vote accordingly

Young people are renowned for their voter turnout statistics.

It's sustainable with proper planning. Unfortunately very few people can make a plan and stick to it. I'm happy the state pension age is rising. If you want to retire early then plan for it and start saving!

Volunteer work.

Yep, as I said in a previous comment, the housing crisis is really exacerbating the pension time bomb

The housing crisis negatively impacts even those who own their own home though. Thats why even most home owners are against price rises in Ireland now.

I live in South Dublin and I'm a home owner and I know local schools, hospitals and garda stations and local businesses are understaffed because they can't get junior staff, because of the housing crisis - thats a direct impact on my quality of life.

I work for a tech MNC and our number one issue as a company is hiring, and retaining, staff in Dublin now because of the housing crisis - thats a direct impact on my career.

I have friends and younger family members who can't buy because of the housing crisis - thats a direct impact on my social life, because I'd love them to be able to buy/live in the area we all grew up in, and because I care about them being happy/secure.

And the general "best for Ireland" aspect applies too too - I'd really prefer it if we had 0, or as close to 0 as possible homeless Irish people. That would make me happier than knowing the number is constantly going up, and seeing the poor people on the streets.

A 20% drop in my home price tomorrow would have absolutely zero negative impact on my day to life. But would have tangible positive impacts in all of the above areas.

And on top of that a lot of older homeowners have the very real prospect of their kids in their 20s and 30s living at home with them indefinitely, which is a huge direct impact. As of 2022 it was 440,000 young Irish living with their parents (41% of people aged 18-34), up 13% since 2016, so heading into 2025 its likely at approx 500,000 yes.

We had that 25+ years ago you paid cash to he LL. The rent a room scheme only came into being when government decided that it would really bring LL into the tax system and home ownerwhowere renting a room would be caught. The first renter credit in the noughties started to catch all LL for tax. The RaR was in from the early noughties.

The exact number of those young adults who would be living away from home in a normal housing market is somewhat debateable at the upper end of the range, but we know its absolutely not 50k.

The headline figure "accounts for 41% of people aged between 18 and 34 in Census 2022. In Census 2016, 37% of this cohort lived at home and it was 32% in Census 2011. Bearing in mind that was during the depths of the recession when a lot of young people were unemployed. This would suggest at least 150k of those adults would not be living at home given the choice.

Alternatively, as of August 2023: "68 per cent of people aged between 25-29 in Ireland still live at home. This figure is nearly 26 per cent higher than the EU average of 42.1." Bearing in mind that includes plenty of European countries with their own housing crises right now. That figure would also suggest at least 150k, and likely a lot higher, of those adults would not be living at home given the choice.

And rather more damning is the rate in comparable wealthy, Northern European countries but that have functional housing markets for young adults. Young adults living at home in that demographic is 2% in Denmark and 5% in Sweden or Finland. If we had similar housing markets it would likely be broadly similar here. Very very few normal adults over the age of 22 want to live with their parents, given the choice.

That would mean about 20k, maybe 50k if we're being very generous, of that 500k are living at home by choice.

What are the percentages of youth unemployment in southern Europe?