Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I think the first proper housing targets were launched in September 2021 under ‘housing for all’.

The targets have been exceeded in each of 2022, 2023. 2024 likely to come in line

2022 target 24.6, actual 29.8

2023 target 29, actual 32

2024 target 33, estimated 30-35

Funny how all the top comments when government announced new targets, top liked comments on every article were ‘more targets they won’t hit’….facts be damned!

I'd say that Ukraine will wrapped up in the next few months, probably with a peace treaty just as good as the one that was refused back in March of 2022. I'm sure all those young men that died or were crippled to stretch out a needless war are happy to have made the sacrifice.

Regardless, what will be interesting is whether Ukrainians will be sent home once peace is declared. I suspect not.

Yet one more way that the infinite growth model will ruin us.

Maybe if Westerners thought more about the futures of our own children and grandchildren and less about pensions we would be better off.

There’s also the practical side. If there is a big deficit of, let’s say 5-10 years regular annual demand. You have to make a call on over what period you want to close the gap. If you ramp up production to double annual demand in short term, you can close the gap in 5-10 years.

Im sure that’s what some people would want, but it’s just not practical or even sensible. Doubling your construction workforce and then halving it again within a 10 year span is just silly.

Seems gov are aiming for regular annual demand plus a small bit and closing any existing deficit (whatever that number) in a much more gradual & sustainable way.

That's why I asked that question. It was interesting to see that their planned estimates weren't out of range back then.

It is not possible to discuss housing without discussing immigration, for the housing crisis is directly created by the surge in population in recent years. The OP's warning on this matter was unenforceable because it was asking people to discuss a matter whilst ignoring the full picture.

Regarding the posts on build completions, I agree that they highlight important data. However if one considers 50k houses built in a year to be important, then they must also look to the figure of 100k NET immigration in the same year.

I understand that some people don't like discussing immigration, but if solutions are to be found for a problem, one must deal with reality as it is and not how one wishes it to be.

It doesn't "suggest the government don't believe the Housing Commission claims". It shows the government has no faith in their ability to ramp up construction above 60k a year this decade.

The housing goals are set based on what the government thinks its likely to be able to meet, so it can claim political victory - not on what the country actually needs.

The target for 2023 was a paltry 29k like, in a year where our population grew by over 100k, and years into the very obvious housing crisis. Anyone could tell you that target wasn't actually based on the maths of real world housing need, but instead on what the government believed it could actually hit.

My issue is with the targets. Each target is half what is should be, so each year the govt is falling further behind the actual number that should be delivered.

That’s just hindsight bias combined with an insane lack of realism.

When the targets were set in year 2021 the annual net migration was 21k. Irelands population had grown by an average of 57k per year over the previous decade. 30k houses at 2.3 household size was a very sensible target, would have met new demand and slowly/sensible cleared any latent demand…however…6 months after the target was set Russia invaded Ukraine (how could they not foresee it!!) and we’ve had back to back year of 100k population growth (you can have a seperate argument over whether this was managed rightly or wrongly, not one I’m interested in getting involved in). Either way it was pretty much unprecedented and pretty unlikely to be sustained.

Secondly context at the time matters. Ireland had come from a base building about 5,000 houses a year from 2009-2015. It was at about 20k by 2017. Aiming for over 65% uplift to 33k by 2024 was incredibly ambitious when you consider how long illiquid the supply of housing can be.

Thirdly the number being built are literally some of the highest in the world. Doubling them again would just be stratospherically high targets.

If someone in a position of responsibility for delivery published a report in 2021 saying we should aim for 60k home completions per year over the next 3 years like you’ve suggested, they should have been immediately fired. It would have been nonsensical at the time.

The idea that doubling our current housing out to building 60k housing units a year in Ireland is a "stratospherically high target" is absolutely insane, and has no basis in reality.

Number one, most importantly, because its very clearly needed given the housing crisis and our now consistent yearly population population growth.

But number two also simply because we have a history of building per capita far, far more than 30k a year. Its eminently achievable.

In 2023 that goal of 29k housing units for a population of 5.1mn compares to our actually completed historically:

88k housing units completed in 2005 when we had a population of 4.1mn, or the per capita equivalent of approx 110k units in 2023

27k housing units completed in 1975, when we had a population of 3.2mn, or the per capita equivalent of 45k housing units in 2023

In 1975, when we were one of the poorest, most backward countries in Europe, riddled with planning corruption, with negative population growth due to sky high immigration, we could build the per capita equivalent of 150% of the houses we're building now at a time of incredible wealth, so much tax revenue the government can't spend it, and runaway population growth. Thats a complete and utter failure of governmental housing policy.

And the housing crisis didn't just begin in 2023 - its been ongoing for a decade now. Nobody would have gotten fired for suggesting a target of 60k housing units a year in 2021, they would have been applauded for actually being realistic and trying to resolve the crisis.

They didn't fail as such. Rather, they didn't try to contain the problem. Everything that the state has done for the last decade has exacerbated the housing crisis. From lockdowns, money printing, immigration and letting in investment funds, prices have gone up and up year on year. It would be credulous to believe that anyone is this incompetent.

However let's not fool ourselves that this is just because of the actions of civil servants and politicians. I would say that a majority or people here want their house to be worth more, and I doubt that they care too much about the consequences.