USA 2024 presidential election

Biden won with the voters by about 4.5% and its possible Harris could get somewhere close to that if the suggestions that the polls are under counting women voting for Harris because many won't in public admit to doing so due to their maga nutter dad, boyfriend, husband, family etc are true. But we will just have to see what happens. The only thing I feel very confident of right now is that Harris will get the most votes.

I should add that I very much hope you prove to be spot on.

Well what I will say is this. Firstly Wisconsin and Michigan while not a done deal look good for Harris. That means if she wins Pennsylvania it is over. Now Trump in recent days including his unhinged deranged rants yesterday is claiming that there is fraud in the early Pennsylvania voting that suggests his internal information is telling him he is losing. Plus also in early voting data from Pennsylvania 56% of the voters are women and only 44% men. Then you have the fact that 480,000 Puerto Ricans live in that state and well its reasonable to think a good chunk of them will now vote for Harris after the hate fest at Trump's rally in New York last Sunday. So certainly nothing is a done deal but there are reasons for genuine optimism rather than someone just clutching at straws.

I think what we might be seeing is the 'sunk cost effect' of supporting Trump. I have been watching some interviews with supporters, mainly on YouTube, and often they are unable to justify their reason for supporting Trump when challenged. Even faced with facts they are not open to re-examining their choices. This morning I hear a voter say they had voted for trump. When asked if they agreed with Jan 6th events they said no but they 'knew' that the riots were caused by FBI agents who had infiltrated the demonstration. All the demonstrators wanted, according to him, was to take selfies. Supporting Trump has become a cult amongst some people and they will always find a reason to dismiss any criticism of him.

Thanks for the link to the Selzer interview. Interesting . She does however seem to put the swing down to the Congressional campaign as she herself notes that the presidential candidates haven't really spent much of either time or money in Ohio.

Irrespective of the outcome, and i certainly hope for a Harris victory, the American people are deeply divided with an almost messianic cult taking hold of a large section of the population.

So let's paint a picture on how a trump presidency will affect ireland directly;

Trump slashes corporate tax rate and as a result, the apples and the googles up sticks and leave Ireland. What will that do for our tax revenues?

Trump cedes Ukraine to Putin. Do you think Putin will just stop with Ukraine? There's the Russian enclave of Transnistria, not to mention to 'reintroduce' the Baltic states to the Russian Empire. With the amount of displacement of people from those areas, how will our already-strained housing stock cope with that? Not to mention the increase in inflation that war always brings.

So yeah, it does matter

And this bollox also about Putin, he can't even get past a rag tag army in Ukraine. If he tried anything against a UN member they would be crushed, sure Finland would smash what's left of the Russian army so i'd say come out from under your pillow. Things will be alright, whatever may happen

Except this time, trump has put it in to his manifesto

Ok, lets assume you're a serious poster.

That rag tag army is being held up a lot by american finance and weapons. Trump has said he'll withdraw that support, not to mention he tried to extort Zelensky as part of his first Impeechment.

And if you mean NATO, rather than UN, Russia was been in electronic warfare with estonia for years.

My prediction of how this will go down.

Nevada could go red though, along with MI and WI

NC seems close enough still and PA could go either way.

UN?

Russia are in the UN, what are you waffling about???