General Election 2024 - Predict the Result

I have never lived under a government that I actually voted for, and I imagine this time will be no different. Another FG/FF reacharound is about all we can expect, unfortunately.

Maybe knock that first digit off the Greens from the previous result, the dildo of consequences is coming in unlubed for the GP this time.

The brief that you didn't bother with yourself. Perhaps all of the other posters are going to make their predictions later as well!

If you think the Green vote is coming from social housing you simply don't have a clue.

Greens down to 1 is unlikely but the more interesting thing is the gap between FG and FF.

I think they should be within a couple of seats of each other but in constituencies where there is 3 seats between 2 parties if one party gains more of those than the other the gap could get relatively large.

It raises the question at what point is rotating Taoiseach off the table. i think in the 17 seat difference the bigger party unlikely to give it up. I think up to 10 it's on the table, more than that and it will be interesting negotiations.

I find this line of logic difficult to understand... you are advocating for voting for literally anyone on the ballot who is inexperienced rather than those who are experienced. It seems unlikely this will lead to a better outcome for anyone.

I have my own issues with sone government policies and decisions, however, if I and others do as you suggest I'd anticipate that I'd be a lot more unhappy.

You realise that the civil servants, the people manning each department largely don't change between elections? I disagree that every department is a **** show, but even if you think it is... would a load of inexperienced politicians likely help ?

TDs are voted for by the people in their local areas to represent them in the Dáil.

Government Ministers are a bit like the managers of different parts of the country. They are chosen by the Taoiseach from among the TDs. Each Minister is in charge of a particular area, like health, education, or transport. Their job is to make decisions and run their departments to make things better for the people. So, if we follow your logic, the Taoiseach would have to pick Ministers from a pool of inexperienced TDs.

To me, that sounds like a recipie for disaster, particularly if many of those unknown faces are not aligned to larger political parties and we end up with a rainbow coalition.