Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

I'd say for most people, nothing has happened in the past month or so which would change people's votes. However what could also be happening is that many of the undecideds (who may not have been counted in straight 1v1 polling reports) have now picked a side and so they're effecting the change in the results. They may have already been leaning in one direction a month ago, but with nothing major having happened in the past month, they've likely now definitively picked a side.

Tied polls suit both sides - the Republicans so they can claim the election was stolen obviously- and the Dems to limit voter apathy.

Theres a conspiracy theory there in the making somewhere 😀

Yeah certainly possible too - the % of undecided was not at all small - weren’t some predictions up at 11-2% at some stage, I just can’t recall - that would certainly create a landslide if the majority went one way

That's IMHO why no reputable pollster has presented any poll that puts the race outside of a tie but caveats that tie with MoE's of between 3-5%

If all the pollsters are reporting the same range of support and there is a landslide one way or the other? It feeds into a hidden vote narrative rather than poor statistical sampling and controls. It means one doesn't run the risk of ostracised next election cycle for publishing data that goes against the mean.

Polling methodology and sample selection bias, both in terms of non-responses not being appropriately weighted and the weighting afforded to those that do reply are all in need of drastic overhaul and have been for more than a decade.

Pollsters need to engage more people and do so on a far broader basis than is currently the case stateside.

It’s head wrecking stuff isn’t it? I mean a “rational ” person would say more voters likely to be secret Harris supporters over abortion - but yeah, maybe there’s a cohort out there too embarrassed to admit they’d vote for Trump - we’ve seen some Muslims say they’ll “puke” first but they’re voting Trump - but given this is 2024 not 2016, I’m not sure building in a silent Trump voter ship is that wise -but I’d love to know have they built in a silent Harris vote coming from the female Reps- if they have, then it will be microns close

Iowa's lost a large amount of women's health support. Lots of their OBGYN's have left. It's impacting cancer treatment in the state. Apparently Iowa is 51th in OBGYN per capita (versus the other states and DC.) Considering Iowa's population is only 3.2 million (way less than Ireland for comparison) and it's population density is 36 per sq.m. (Ireland 198), it gives you an idea of the sorry state of women's health care there since Dobbs.

But, this is what the GOP wanted, the people of Iowa reliably vote Republican, they voted for Trump and why Mitch McConnell delayed Garland's vote on the SCOTUS.

If they flip to Harris this time, that'll be nice, but I doubt it lasts. And, the problems will still exist for women there for a long time. Now, Iowa could amend its constitution like other states have done

Mentioning a fictional insane character 9 times, insane asylums twice and a golfers ability to produce good progeny [it's in the family] does tend to show where Trump's mind and memory may be at. Its the second reference to golfers tackle he's made in 2 weeks.

He’s definitely extremely weak “sounding” in 2024 compared to either 2016 or 2020 in terms of what he says- definitely a sense of having to shout louder and say more extreme things in order to be heard and stay in the news and on social media - that’s not a good sign at all and hints at desperation regardless of what he’s facing if he loses this election .

Saying all of that Harris campaign stalled throughout this election - they too have been pulling out all the stops with celebrity endorsements etc over the last month so the desperation for votes is clearly on both sides - Harris though has improved as a speaker in recent times in contrast to Trump

It’s clearly a racist influenced argument around genetics - it’s not even as “thinly veiled” as it might once have been. American white population is on the decline - he’s not going to pass up the chance to bring in this analogy given every single vote counts at this stage

If this poll is correct then Trump is in deep trouble

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/02/politics/iowa-poll-harris-trump/index.html

There was one particularly funny moment in that half-empty arena video - a large guy on the end of a row, slumped in his seat, apparently miles away, when Trump said one of the trigger words and the guy lethargically lifted his sign for a second or two before letting it fall again. So obviously not listening and on autopilot.

Many of the audience were half asleep, head on their partner's shoulder, yawning, playing with phones etc. Why on earth do they go, they must know at this stage there is nothing new?

Just me or have the more active Trump supporters gone silent again after that Iowa poll? 😂 I'm guessing they won't be commenting on the Epstein tapes either.

The Iowa poll seems to be generating headlines but even Nate Silver admits that is ‘probably wrong’

Other polls have given Trump a +9 in Iowa

Also, recent polls by Atlas Intel who are some of the best out there is giving Trump leads in all the battleground states.

538 and Nate Silver is still giving this election marginally to Trump.

Quoting myself, still prepared for hat eating.

I can’t see that happening.

Arizona in particular has gone red, and NC and GA look to be firmly in the Trump camp.

The polls have to be seriously underestimating the Harris vote for that to be true.