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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,921 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    And when Biden was doing this, the Republicans and MAGA heads were calling for him to stop being president, not just seeking relection.

    So, same applies, right?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,159 ✭✭✭BQQ


    The blue wall is holding

    Trump has no path unless he can turn this around in a matter of days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,285 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Journalists in the US have been examining very unusual betting patterns in the last fortnight or so and suspect that non-regular gamblers have been manipulating the odds to make it 'look' like Trump is the red hot favourite to win (and Trump's team have money to burn in this regard).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,259 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Agreed, but we seen how poisonous echo chambers are for US political discourse are this week with this example of people lapping up paid Democrat influencers without bothering to look at the full statement just a few days after MAGA types falsely mispresented Biden calling Trump supporters when he clearly didn't.

    Not sure what can be done here sadly, one side locked away looking at Aaron Rupar and fellow paid Dem influencers as Gospel and the other side with whatever MAGA influencers are getting those sweet retweet numbers.

    Fucked.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,032 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    As someone pointed out online, we are living in the strangest of timelines.

    GbTb1z5WcAA2xY4.jpeg

    First they wore diapers for him

    GbTb1z4WIAAXEtz.jpeg

    Then they wore tissues on their ears for him

    GbTb1z3W0AA-sHi.jpeg

    Now they are wearing rubbish bags.

    Absolutely bizarre when you stop to think about it!

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    What, because Julia Roberts shouldn't be allowed to voice her partiality to Kamala Harris or something?

    The ad does make clear that your vote and your privacy in the polling booth is 'sacrosanct' as you put it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,389 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Not really an apples to apples comparison, 2 different polling groups. The CNN 2020 exit poll was in person on the day, so would have a higher Republican group

    There's a massive reduction in Democrats voting early (down ~40% so far) Republicans down ~25% and independents down ~30%, so all things considered you would expect to see a drop in the ratio (higher proportion of Republicans in the pool) I'm sure there's some analysts already crunching the numbers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Currently for the polls, analysts and experts it's pretty much too close to call. Those betting don't have more insight than that, so there could be other factors at play rather than educated knowledge e.g. perhaps a higher proportion of Republican voters tend towards placing a bet on their candidate rather than e.g. Dem supporters.

    On paper I think Trump has it by a nose now, but with e.g. early voting breaking records, which tends slightly towards Dem (which could change) there are too many variables that are different with this election.

    Personally I have a bet on Trump winning, and I have a few non-Trump supporting friends who have done the same - not because we are backing odds but because if the worst happens we'll get a bit of cash out of it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭Crazy Davey


    and there’s your mad conspiracy theory. Any proof beyond the usual lib media suspects?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭Crazy Davey


    that doesn’t quite mesh with the other posters’ mad theories that Trump supports are manipulating odds…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,718 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    Another one after a quick search:

    I got a dose posts last week :

    So, even if Harris wins (I repeat I think she will, and handily),

    Show me one trump supporter who said trump will win easy ? , they might of said win but win easy ? The comment was around posters saying Harris would win easy and their is no evidence of that- I have just given you 3 in the last few days and I'm positive there is a good few more in previous pages also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,285 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    How can it be a mad conspiracy theory? If someone places a series of large bets on one of two candidates, their odds will shorten and their rival's odds will lengthen (and I'm saying this as an experienced punter with knowledge of how the betting and spread markets work).

    Manipulation of betting markets by people who are not actually gambling or trying to win money is not at all unheard of.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,567 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    I'd say it's more a case of recognizing that your vote is your own. Your friends or husband should not be the deciding factor on which way you vote. I can guarantee you that there are plenty of relationships where partners aren't remotely open on their political views and vote via a sense of obligation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭Smee_Again


    Polymarket has confirmed that $28M of the bets for Trump are from the same person. That person may or may not be a Trump supporter but the odds are being influenced.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    There's a massive reduction in Democrats voting early (down ~40% so far) Republicans down ~25% and independents down ~30%

    Nationally or in the swing states? You'd want to verify what you're referencing with those numbers.

    It being down nationally vs. covid is hardly surprising. Yet in swing states, Georgia etc., it's way up. 4.013 Million Georgians voted early by in-person or mail-in-ballot, in 2020, total. As of yesterday afternoon that number was 3.65 million with 1 more day to go for in-person early voting, and still many mail in ballots to be returned and accepted by the end of election day and over the weekend. Literally more than 50% of registered voters in GA have already participated in the election, North Carolina is inching close to that, where 3.62 million had voted through Wednesday. NC early votes through Saturday.

    https://www.wabe.org/georgia-reaches-50-turnout-before-last-day-of-early-voting-on-friday/

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4964036-north-carolina-early-voting-data/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,287 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    I guess it’s why half this rubbish is happening - whole states are “Red” or “Blue” - it’s essentially robots isn’t it? It’s brain washing and conformity in the extreme - much as I’m against coercion I think there’s a much bigger issue here than just that



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭Crazy Davey




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭Crazy Davey




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    People are piling money into a stock with terrible financial fundamentals (DJT), which makes little sense, so I wouldn't be surprised if they discovered after the election that e.g. Trump supporters had been pushing odds out of pure support for the candidate



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,438 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    You know what they say about a broken clock…

    Honestly. How does he not have a tan from the golfing?

    WSJ isn't known for crackpot stuff.

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71

    …That's actually NOT how the market works. It follows the money, to make sure it's covered.

    Who would be the bookies favourite be in this position:

    1 million people put $1 on Harris to win @ 3/2 (Bookies pay out $2.5 million if Harris wins, Bookies win $1 million if Harris loses)

    1 person puts $10 million on Trump to win @ 3/2 (Bookies pay out $25 million if Trump wins, Bookies win $10 million if Trump loses)

    Harris wins: Bookies pay out 2.5 million, but keep 10 million (net profit 7.5 million)

    Trump wins: Bookies pay out 25 million, but keep 1 million (net loss 24 million)

    That's right, it's Trump.

    Even though, by using the wisdom of crowds, Harris is obviously the most likely to win in a democratic race, the bookie will name Trump the favourite.

    If Trump wins, the bookies would lose a lot more than Harris winning, EVEN THOUGH more PEOPLE think that Harris would win. So they reduce Trumps odds, so people don't bet on him as much, and increase Harris' odds so a bet for Harris is a more attractive sell, and Trump is a less attractive purchase as it may no longer be worth the risk.

    This is what has happened with this highly unusual whale betting we've seen going on. The market has been completely skewed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,567 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    That's pretty much what it boils down to, 30 million on something with poor returns is pretty stupid. There's far more profitable things to do with it. So then it's reasonable to question motivations around the bet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Groundwork being laid to reject the result if Trump loses

    "

    Republicans are already laying the ground for rejecting the result of next week’s US presidential election in the event Donald Trump loses, with early lawsuits baselessly alleging fraud and polls from right-leaning groups that analysts say may be exaggerating his popularity and could be used by Trump to claim only cheating prevented him from returning to the White House.

    The warnings – from Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans – come as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday in the most consequential presidential contest in generations. Most polls show Trump running neck and neck with Kamala Harris, the vice-president and Democratic nominee, with the two candidates seemingly evenly matched in seven key swing states.

    But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters.

    "

    "

    “We’re leading big in the polls, all of the polls,” Trump told a rally in New Mexico on Thursday. “I can’t believe it’s a close race,” he told a separate rally in North Carolina, a swing state where polls show he and Harris are in a virtual dead heat.

    An internal memo sent to Trump by his chief pollster is confirming that story to him, with Tony Fabrizio declaring the ex-president’s “position nationally and in every single battleground state is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was four years ago”.

    Pro-Trump influencers, too, have strengthened the impression of inevitable victory with social media posts citing anonymous White House officials predicting Harris’s defeat. “Biden is telling advisers the election is ‘dead and buried’ and called Harris an innate sucker,” the conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec posted this week.

    GOP-aligned polling groups have released 37 polls in the final stretch of the campaign, according to a study by the New York Times, during a period when longstanding pollsters have been curtailing their voter surveys. All but seven showed a lead for Trump, in contrast to the findings of long-established non-partisan pollsters, which have shown a more mixed picture – often with Harris leading, albeit within error margins.

    "



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭Smee_Again




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,287 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    “What, because Julia Roberts shouldn't be allowed to voice her partiality to Kamala Harris or something?”

    Where did I say that?
    It was clear in my post that a non partisan message around the privacy of the voting booth delivered to all voters would have been a better way to get this message out there if coercion of voters by their partners is an issue. There’s no need to make things up that I didn’t say or to post in a manner that makes it look like I said that-



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭Smee_Again


    How about this one?

    Its getting boring now. Trump has this wrapped up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,634 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Honestly. How does he not have a tan from the golfing?

    Because golf buggies have a canopy?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,718 ✭✭✭paddyisreal


    that was posted by someone on the wind up, the other posters i highlighted in fairness were just expressing their opinion

    Its getting boring now. Trump has this wrapped up.

    You know it's over when they start trying to convince themselves Trump has had a stroke

    Mod Edit: Warned for trolling - ban increased to one week



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    I didn't make up that you said anything, I asked you a question?

    Seems to the contrary Julia Roberts got her message out there super effectively, they were even airing the ad for free on Fox News just to give out about it. Not only that but in doing so they made themselves out to be the very type of husbands that the ad is inferring are an issue, those who want to control what their women-folk do via threat of divorce etc. — even though it's the likes of Watters and Gingrich etc. who cheated on their wives.

    Heck now they're discussing it on The View too - because Fox News discussed it, because of its effectiveness.

    NAVARRO: If it wasn’t so serious, it would be comical is people like, you know, Newt Gingrich saying that we shouldn’t walk around saying wives should lie to their husbands or husbands should lie to their wives. He cheated on his first and second wife. And then the other guy, Jesse Water, says, what? That lying is equivalent to having an affair. Well, I guess that’s why he’s okay with supporting a man who had multiple affairs on all three of his wives.

    JOY BEHAR: The hypocrisy!

    https://www.mediaite.com/tv/ana-navarro-roasts-newt-gingrich-for-outrage-over-wives-lying-to-husbands-about-their-vote-he-cheated-on-his-first-and-second-wife/

    And we're here discussing it now too with people wringing hands about it, clearly it's had incredible reach that wouldn't have been possible if it was as 'neutral' and such as you claim it ought to have been. You haven't really explained why you think it would have been a more effective ad if she had not also endorsed Harris within it, leaving questions about why you think that is, hence the ask.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Boards Trump supporters, genuine question, how do you defend the claim that if Trump loses the election it's likely he will reject the result and manufacture claims of mass election fraud? (like 2020)

    And for context in case of deflection/contrarianism/whataboutery/shenanigans, every large national election will have isolated small issues on both sides, a deceased person voting, etc. That is not close to systematic election fraud.

    Basically how do you reconcile Trump's notion of "If I win, the election was real and if I lose, it must have been rigged" with yourselves?



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