Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Would public sector trade unions accept a "gradually phased transition period over a number of years"? Not a chance.

Would social welfare recipients accept one? Not a chance either.

Will people be willing to pay extra tax for a "gradually phased transition period over a number of years"? Nope, not happening.

The naivety of some of the posting on a united Ireland is mind-boggling as it demonstrates how far we have to go to get some serious debate.

Sinn Fein had 37 TDs elected last time out. What are their realistic aims this time?

They are almost certain to lose seats in some areas - Clare, Laois and Kildare South being obvious ones - but how will the decimation of the vote in Dublin and the faded profile of TDs in places like Wexford affect the outcome?

Is it realistic for them to expect to hold their own, or, given the current polls, how big a fall can be expected. My own estimate is that they could lose up to 17, but that some of these are likely to hold on. The following look vulnerable to me:

Carlow/Kilkenny (running 2 candidates could split the vote)

Cavan/Monaghan (second seat at risk from fall in vote)

Clare (Violet Anne-Wynne)

Cork North-Central (addition of Mallow could give Labour the seat)

Dublin Bay North (collapse in Dublin vote)

Dublin Bay South (collapse in Dublin vote, but added complication of Bacik)

Dublin Fingal West (assume LOR runs here, there isn't enough votes in Dublin for a 3-seater for her)

Dublin Mid-West (collapse in Dublin vote, second seat at risk)

Dublin North-West (will the Rock see off Dessie?)

Galway West (if Independents poll strongly, this seat is also at risk, as the FF and FG increases come into play)

Kerry (one where the FG increase sees them take a seat, while the strong polling protects the Independents)

Kildare South (with the announcement from the Ceann Comhairle that he is coming back, this seat is gone)

Laois (Stanley)

Louth (lose the second seat)

Meath West (can't see both Aontu and SF taking seats this time around, so Tobin to hold on)

Tipperary (not sure where Martin Browne is running, but the split in the constituency could hurt him)

Wexford (constituency loses a seat and Wallace could be running)

As well as those 17, there were a number of constituencies (Kildare North, Dublin West) where I had SF keeping a seat because of increased seat numbers countering the vote drop. As I said already, they shouldn't lose all of these, but if the local election result was repeated, all would be gone, plus a few more.

Will be interesting to watch.

I have posted on the health document, I have posted on SF's electoral prospects, but you are right, all they want to talk about is a united Ireland.

It is clear from your post that SF are still fighting the last election, not the next one. The Republican card played well in 2020, that vote is gone to the hard right. That was a big factor now gone.

Waiting for the result of the American election to see how TV debates affect elections in 2024. Two big ifs in your post, first that a TV debate will affect the outcome, and second, that MLMD will win the TV debate. She is way open to attack this time, whereas last time out she was an unknown in leader debates. How can you lead a government when you cannot lead your own party opens up Stanley, McGonagle etc.

If SF are betting on the TV debates, good luck to them.

Nothing on any of my constituency predictions then? Too detailed?

I have looked at this on a constituency level (see above) and have outlined where I think SF could lose seats, up to 20 if the local elections vote is accurate, but around 13-15 at current levels of support. They have a long list of vulnerable seats at 17%.