Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

If you do it based on 538, Harris wins 291-247. We can all pick the numbers that suit our own biases right now.

There's definitely a sense that the Trump Team are trying to create a narrative of his inevitable victory (while of course hedging with misinformation about all the dastardly stealing that the Dems are doing).

Nobody really knows what is going on beneath the tectonic plates of American political culture from 2020 to 2024. All we know is that we don't know.

And this is 100% the best real-life entertainment you can get. 🙂

There was no red wave, it was quite the failure for the republicans.

Allegedly Trump had some backbone after all where it comes to Ukraine, telling WSJ last week that he told Putin that if he attacked Ukraine, He [Trump] would hit him in the middle of Moscow so hard you won't even believe it. We're friends, I don't want to do it but I have no choice.

The former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, has now commented on Trump's statement. "Trump got carried away. Did he really speak about 'hitting bloody Moscow?' Of course not," he wrote on his social media. The former Kremlin chief also stated that Trump is just posing as a tough negotiator. "In general, he's as smooth as silk in negotiations," he noted. "For such words, there is only one response: your bloody Washington will get hit too. In general, our relations with him are quite warm," he concluded.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, and certainly I hope Harris wins, but I'm not really picking numbers out of nowhere. To reiterate: I have posted the RCP aggregates before and was told that this aggregate is skewed by some dodgy datasets. Supposedly the NYC/Sienna one is top of the line (538 ranks it number one). The point I make is that this poll doesn't exactly paint the rosiest picture, either when you take its latest numbers across the battleground states.

News of record early voting is encouraging on the assumption that high turnout tends to favour the Democratic ticket, but if that's what's happening, it's not registering on polling, really, and will be another big blog of egg on the face of the pollsters should Harris defy the numbers we're seeing right now.

Riiiiiiight, but he has been running and hiding from doing interviews and town halls in the last few weeks, but a 10 minute promo at a closed McDonalds…what is going to shift it for him.

Some logic there.

Not sure why you seem to want to use this as a "masterclass" when it really wasn't, at best it was bizarre.

It also does not distract enough from his very laboured appearances on TV lately, openly admitting he is exhausted etc, yet you think him serving at a closed McDonalds is a masterclass?

We might be watching different things.

I definitely think his townhall appearances have left more of an impression than him flipping burgers or making chips.

"Ashli Babbitt was killed, no one was killed" really stuck out.

Is this honestly a joke? You think this will sway voters…him in a McDonalds. This will have more impact over him giving weird answers at the recent town hall, or swaying to music for 40 minutes…

Is that where we are at now?

I think people will prefer to see what they want from the image and not the reality that it was a campaign stunt. Trumpers will buy into it and it's face value, like they bought into him in the centre some weeks back throwing packages of whatever at the people in the Hurricane aid centre. They cant afford to pierce the bubble they built around him….

Not quite sure what that means but ok.

What you posted on the NYT are polling averages. Not simply NYT/Sienna poll themselves. These are just averages of all the polls by different pollsters like the RCP ones etc and like all these averages they've been swamped with trash right wing spam showing Trump winning. Some models like 538 and silver bulletin do weight these trash polls so they nurf their effects but when you flood the market with them loads of little tiny changes to the average add up.

NYT own polls are rated among the best by 538 but they haven't posted state polls in quite a good few weeks.