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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,802 ✭✭✭Patser


    Yeah, well that's American Electoral College system, and also democracy - you lose if you get less votes.

    If she does lose I think a lot of questions do have to be asked of media coverage - Trump just seems to get a pass on the weird, outrageous things he says, just because he's Trump and its expected and the media loves the viewing it generates, but he never get s really called out on it, never has to explain it.

    Harris on the other hand, has to have all the details on hand immediately, and be available for all interviews and still have to deal with the unbased insinuations Trump throws at her, or else she's hammered by the media



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    so did last week when he swayed for 40 minutes to Cats and Pavarotti. Not all media attention is good for Trump. America saw a candidate who can’t tie an apron or retain simple instructions to drain a fry basket while struggling to answer basic questions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,955 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    Harris is in the lead but week on week its slipping & getting closer & closer , so Trump is either doing something right or Harris is doing something wrong ,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,411 ✭✭✭ronjo


    Or right wing polls are skewing the rolling averages……. I guess well find out pretty soon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,461 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    I'd say regardless, questions should be asked of news outlets. The only places being bluntly honest with the comparison is the Daily Show or John Oliver. Eg if we're to truly discuss Trump's Ukraine policy, let's be honest that the end result is genocide. If we're gonna talk educational policies, they're ones that result in some states hampering education for religious reasons. There's just so much that lacks blatant honesty.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,124 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    ”bookies” in the 80s were Las Vegas experts in making odds. They were rarely wrong about anything.

    “Bookies” these days are any chump who has money to lay on an exchange. They are vastly different.

    I still think Trump will win, but I can give you a million reasons that are nothing to do with betting trends. Betting trends are a reflection of all the other stuff.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,802 ✭✭✭Patser


    Yes, but John Oliver and the Daily Show are very comedic, and obviously completely biased - so can be ignored or dismissed as such by Trump supporters. It is the things like the debates and 60 minutes, where a candidate can be pinned down and told to answer a question, and that unsurprisingly Trump is now ignoring, that are really needed.

    Instead Trump gets to set the agenda by doing staged gigs like McDonalds yesterday, free to make jibes at Harris about alleging she never worked there, but not to explaing why he is capable of being President for shouting 'They're eating cats and dogs!' because he read it in some newspaper, he thinks, but never bothered to check, because you know, being President and all doesn't involve geoing into detail



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,324 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Record numbers in Georgia

    Same for North Carolina

    And in general , more Democrats are voting early

    This isn't just "mail in" it's early voting - In multiple States you can walk in and vote in person for several weeks in advance of Election day , it's there that there has been a sharp increase.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,080 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    If the betting odds were aligned with the election probability, why would anyone empty their wallet into it. That makes no sense at all. I think you proving that you don't really get how betting works.

    If a bet price is aligned to the probability then there is no value at all in it. Why would anyone lump the mortgage on in that case. Ironically, the opposite is true, if Trump is not relly as favoured as betting suggests, then Kamala is huge value and people should be lumping on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,955 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    I think Harris will win but i think it'll be close ,



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,324 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Just as a general comment - If early voting was available in your State , why on earth wouldn't you use it??

    I mean , why wait until the actual day , to get caught up in queues etc. etc. when you could simply pick any time over the course of a few weeks and stroll in at your leisure?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,832 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Back in 2020, within the first week of early voting in Georgia more than a fifth had already voted (1,555,622 vs 1,473,118 in 2024).

    But, digging down to the details in Georgia, the places already surpassing their early voting 2020 figure were all won by Biden:
    Clayton: 32k (so far) vs 12k (2020)
    Dekalb: 101k (so far) vs 46k (2020)
    Fulton: 165k (so far) vs 117k (2020)
    These were all bottom of the list in 2020 for early voting turnout as a %.

    So yeah, as you say, that's pretty huge.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,461 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    It seems to amount to an early sign of engagement more than anything. I'd agree though. It's far less of a factor here if it was available cause you're only waiting two or three minutes waiting at worst. Meanwhile the US seems to enforce hours of waiting to simply disincentivise voting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,832 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Yeah, I was digging down into Georgia's early voting and it's looking really positive for Harris.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,401 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I’m of the same mindset. If there’s a voting place open for a few weeks, I’d try to work a visit there into one of my days and get that job ticked off.

    Perhaps voting day offers more Voting Places? Some people maybe can’t make it to where the Early Voting is but can reach their local school (for example)?

    Otherwise I too can’t understand waiting for Election Day when the early option is there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,656 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Care to tell us how he is wrong…or do we just take your word for it?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,324 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    My assumption is that there are more places on actual Election day vs. early voting but I don't know for certain.

    Maybe early voting is only at a Government building like city hall or something whereas actual voting day there are school gyms and church halls or whatever in use. Distance is also likely a bigger factor in the US , particularly if you live in a rural area.

    But either way seems like it would be easier to plan an early vote than to vote on the day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭bewareofthedog


    I bet on trump in 2016 and biden in 2020. think trump is going to win again, harris imo comes across as not genuine, often condescending and without a clear message. that is going to hurt her. as bad as trump is people know what to expect with him



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,401 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I hope Harris will win, and yes it has the potential of being close.

    In terms of type of win:

    • I’d settle for any win where she’s over the 270 line
    • I’d be very happy if she won by the same margin as Biden
    • And Christmas would come early if a Blue wave came and swept North Carolina and maybe even Florida to Harris

    If that last one happened I’d gladly hand over a small fortune to witness Donnie’s reaction to waking up in a state that voted against him. It’s a long shot, but a fun one to imagine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,850 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Trump has a very different relationship to traditional media outlets than your typical political candidate. He was able to usurp a sizable proportion of the American electorate through Twitter and other social media, and he was able to cultivate a mindset among many of them that critical media is essentially the enemy and not to be believed, so he's not totally reliant on that older type of media to maintain his popularity and get exposure. He has his position and he has his following and the media will largely come to him rather than him going to them and he can afford to rebuff them if he feels their questioning is too pointed. The media will still come to him because the whole phenomenon of the man and his screeching base is too much of a ratings generator to ignore.

    Harris's base is a bit more level-headed. They're not wired into that cultish mentality of critical media being bad. If a tonne of media outlets come down on her at the same time, it's likely to influence their opinion of her and not in a good way. Consequently, she has to mind her Ps and Qs, just like virtually every other American politician not named Donald J. Trump.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Early options are fewer locations and also the hours aren't as broad as election day. im going to try leaving work early today to get mine in.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,324 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Makes sense , but like I say seems like it would be easier to plan to vote early - Link it in with a few other bits that you have to get done and take a morning/afternoon off knowing that you'll probably be in and out relatively quickly whereas on the day you could be stuck in a queue for hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 532 ✭✭✭Dingaan


    Olbermann actually has a favourable Harris poll on his own X timeline, yet he’s implying corruption of reputable institutions without a shred of evidence? This is nothing more than a conspiracy theory. The data shows a dead heat between Trump and Harris, but if telling yourself this is true is an effective coping strategy, then by all means escape reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,656 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    So you don't like what he is saying, have no evidence to go against that other than it might favour Harris over Trump.

    I think you want him to be wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,868 ✭✭✭thomil


    Legal Eagle isn't holding back in their assessment of the situation, and paints a pretty stark picture:

    Hearing Devin Stone completely throw out his usual sarcastic and humorous style to lay things out in such a direct manner is quite the sobering experience. I try to stay clear of this thread, but I think it's worth recalling just what's at stake.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    I'll have to watch it later but one of the earliest videos I saw of his was his post January 6th video where similar to what you describe, he was a no nonsense presenter and spoke about it in no half measures. As a lawyer the incident sickened him to his core.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 561 ✭✭✭CliffHangeroner


    Half of America seen that Overheal the other seen a guy they are going to vote for.

    You see the problem yet?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    there's that fib about 'half the country' again



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 37,147 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Saw some reasonable theory online regarding the polling and betting odds swinging towards Trump the last few weeks.

    If Trump's side can sway the polls and betting odds before election night, it gives better credibility to claims of another stolen/rigged election if he loses.

    Definitely not beyond the realms of possibility, particularly with regards the betting odds. Polls you can only influence so much given how many different polls are undertaken and their credibility, but if you can flood the online discourse enough with enough polls you can swing the averages.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56,089 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Just over 2 weeks to go, how time flys

    I'm dreading it.



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