Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Looks like Moldova (with accusations of Russian interference) has voted by a margin of around just 0.2% to continue the process towards EU accession.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/21/moldova-vote-join-eu-razor-thin-majority

Hmmm

Isnt there also the issue of not having a widows compensation if a bag of onions if there isn't a body to confirm death in action?

And the Taliban didn't have the capabilities to military defeat the US army, but (unfortunately) here we are and they occupy almost the whole of Afghanistan now.

The goal has to be a more accelerated version of that. Maintain as much of Ukraine as possible, while keeping it as safe as possible, and then trying to maximise economic harm on Russia to the point they either decide to become less involved military or no longer have the economy to fuel their military.

This is a process that will unfortunately take several years at least. However in the meantime the more support Ukraine receives, the better job they can do at preventing Russian bombs from hitting their cities.

I see some of the posters who were banned from the previous Russia-Ukraine threads are back.

At least you're articulating a vision for what next. Personally, I wouldn't be that optimistic for all sorts of reasons - primarily because I don't believe US taxpayers have the appetite for the largesse that would be required not only militarily but propping up Ukraine itself. It becomes a harder sell after each tranche of assistance.

My own belief is that we'll see movement after the US election towards some form of negotiations - at the very least to try stop the fighting in the interim and then see what leverage can be brought to bare on Russia.

Victory for Ukraine can only come from throwing more than "goodwill and optimism". Europe need to provide them with every weapon, every permission, every piece of equipment and every euro they can in order to assist Ukraine to take back their sovereign territory. It'll be easier if the US doesn't fall to it's own Putinist coup in November and Harris maintains/increases US support but we in Europe shouldn't be counting on it.

IMO, the most likely path to this is Ukraine continuing exactly as they have been: trading small amounts of territory for large numbers of casualties and materiel destroyed while using long range drones and the drip-feed of ordinance they've been given to destroy Russian military bases and stockpiles. As long as the EU (and hopefully the US) keep up (or increase where possible) sanctions, Russia will implode economically before they can take even half of Ukraine, quite likely descending back to the humanitarian crisis of the early 90's but without Western goodwill to save them this time. Russia will be a bloodbath of criminal gangs and warlords, the various republics declaring independence and Ukraine should be able to take advantage of the disorder to re-take their sovereign lands.

They might want to take an extra bit of land as a buffer too. Cos that's what countries should be allowed to do, right Vlad?

I must have personally seen that many getting Baba Yaga'd.

There's no question the biggest risk for Ukraine is a decline in support should Trump win the US election and decide to go that direction.

There are many Republicans who feel this is money very well spent, but equally there are many of the opposite view.

Should US support decline, Europe would likely have to pick up the slack and also (if things weren't going well) take in more Ukrainian people. That harms a massive, wealthy trading partner of the US, and likely the US economy far more than their contributions to Ukraine. The US money being spent in Ukraine is smart money, whether their tax payers realise it or not.

Russia's African activities hit another issue

More details of typical Russian interference from Moldova

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/21/moldova-vote-join-eu-razor-thin-majority

"In particular, officials in Moldova have accused the fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, a vocal opponent of EU membership, of running a destabilising campaign from Moscow.

Earlier this month, the national police chief, Viorel Cernăuțanu, accused Shor and Moscow of establishing a complex “mafia-style” voter-buying scheme and bribing 130,000 Moldovans – almost 10% of normal voter turnout – to vote against the referendum and in favour of Russia-friendly candidates in what he called an “unprecedented, direct attack”.

Last week, law enforcement agencies said they had also uncovered a programme in which hundreds of people were taken to Russia to undergo training to stage riots and civil unrest.

Shor, who is based in Moscow and denies wrongdoing, has openly offered on social media to pay Moldovans to persuade others to vote in a certain way, and said that was a legitimate use of money that he had earned. In the early hours of Monday, he claimed Moldovans had voted against the referendum.

Marta Mucznik, a senior EU analyst at the International Crisis Group, said: “The impact of pro-Russian disinformation campaigns is evident. Tactics such as spreading fake news, vote-buying, and portraying the EU negatively have effectively swayed voters away from pro-EU sentiments."

And this other piece on leaked files from Russian interference in Europe

https://vsquare.org/leaked-files-putin-troll-factory-russia-european-elections-factory-of-fakes/

"The scale of disinformation production is astonishing. A leaked report claims that in the first four months of 2024, the SDA’s bot army, dubbed the “Russian Digital Army,” generated 33.9 million comments. They also claim to have produced 39,899 “content units” on social media, including 4,641 videos and 2,516 memes and graphics."

Not to mention we have Irish individuals who not just buy into the propaganda but happily regurgitate it for free.

Wow, it could well be that Putin's war is merely house clearance for North Korea.

Its only fair I suppose

Korean civil war: Part Two. New location.

Ukraine continues to make progress in disarming putin's terrorists:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/microelectronics-plant-halts-production-after-uav-attack/