Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

I doubt it's to do so to the Democrat's favour, more so to do it for ratings. You make the election far closer than it actually may be, and you make every election-related news item incredibly important and more exciting.

The media, even the more left-leaning organisations, ultimately care more about ratings than anything else. Fox News wouldn't care if Harris wins because it'll drive more anti-Harris viewers to Fox when they complain about everything she does. CNN wouldn't care if Trump wins because he generates so much content for them in everything he does.

They may have their preferences and often wear those preferences right on their sleeves, but they don't really care about who wins because they know they can shift their media strategy accordingly and use it to their advantage even if the other candidate wins.

@Overheal should read this.

The betting market IS an indicator, one of many others.

It's not, though, as has been explained many times on this thread, and several times this morning.

But by all means, I am not stopping you if you want to bet it all on an illusion.

As Albert Reynolds said of Bertie Ahern " he's very good at the taking bit but pretty useless at the delivering bit"

Surely the opposite applies given that there is much better value in betting for Harris if the markets are 'hacked' in favour of Trump?

You were so certain a second ago? 🙂

This might be the first time ever though that one side 'may' be deliberately attempting to manipulate the betting market. If that is the case, the entire market will be unreliable and cannot be used as a barometer of anything.

I'd actually argue that there is value for Harris in thinking that voting is so tight - one of the reasons I think Trump won in 2016, is that everyone believed Clinton was a shoo in, and a lot didn't bother to vote, as they felt it was aready decided. Trump got every one of his believers out, while undecideds figured it made little difference and didn't really like Clinton so stayed home.

Same thing I'm convinced is why Brexit got through, all polls had it as a done deal.

This year, everyone is screaming knife edge - every vote counts!! Especially in Pennsylvania - which is seeing record numbers register as a result. Ain't no-one sitting this out! And I've a feeling that'll suit Harris rather than Trump

in fairness to the article some professor brainy box is saying that there could well be a collective bias within this current type of betting - so yeah, maybe traditional barometers aren’t as reliable as they once were- then again mistakes (different ones) were made in the past too with statistics so it’s not totally a new playing field here- we’re still dependent on quality data, and proper rigour applied to that data based on the conditions of the day, before the results are publicised - if that rigour isn’t applied then yes it won’t be accurate -my point being the changing nature of what we’re experiencing should be recognised by those collating such data and making allowances/adjustments as a result - who knows if they’ve done this here or not

Where are you seeing these records being broken on early voting data? Mail in voting figures are all down significantly on 2020 (obviously because of Covid) You'll remember Trump was miles ahead in PA until the postal votes were added in. That impact will be much less this year.

So Kamala has a decent lead of Trump, there will be alot of people on here very happy.

Then take it to a betting thread, this is one about politics

Yeah, if Harris loses this election, it couldn't be said that it was due to complacency on the side of her supporters, but there simply weren't enough of them in the places where it really counted.