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Winter 2024/25 - General Discussion

  • 20-10-2024 09:13PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,868 ✭✭✭✭


    What are your thoughts about this winter?

    I think if we are to get any cold weather it will be in early winter with the rest of the winter being mild and windy. I could tolerate a mild winter overall if we got a proper cold spell during the heart of winter. I' m thinking 7-9 days of snowy cold with two or three consecutive ice days! There is not much better than seeing frost and snow hang on the trees all day in December.

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,757 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We've been in an overall cold pattern since the beginning of June although the milder than average pattern seems to have taken over the past week with no real signs of anything cool or cold over the next few weeks unless we get high pressure centering over us leading to frost and fog.

    I've been watching gavsweathervids winter updates and they seem promising pointing towards a chance that we may get a cold outbreak at some stage this winter, particularly in the first half of winter. As ever it's a case of wait and see but at this stage we are definitely overdue a properly cold outbreak this winter. We came close a few times over the last few winters but just couldn't get there in the end with the heights over Iberia just refusing to budge been a big issue for us and the high pressure just not getting to Greenland/Iceland properly and staying there for a few days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,581 ✭✭✭ongarite


    Higher than average temperatures forecast for southern & eastern US this winter. Could feed into more active Atlantic & winter warmth.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,594 ✭✭✭esposito


    Same ole s***e again yeah?

    The above would have been my opinion a couple months ago however something tells me this winter could be different. That’s all I’ll say for now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    Where is the year gone to…Winter in less than 6 weeks time wow. It would be nice to get a few snowy days this year.

    MOD NOTE: FYP. Winter starts Decemder 1st (on this forum).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,399 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Unless we get snow any cold can stay well away. Temperatures in the teens will do all winter.

    The in between cold and wet is the worst weather ever.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,734 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    That's all I ask for any winter just one decent cold snowy spell.

    Failing that ,at least one decent cold frosty spell where the frost lasts in the shade all day.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,757 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We have been snow starved since February/March 2018, hard to believe the Beast From The East will have it's 7th birthday February/March 2025. At this stage I would be more than happy to take a 2 to 3 day wonder like what we had in February 2009, it doesn't have to be a 2 week long December to Remember.

    Having said all that, I think we may have a slightly better opportunity at a small slice of wintriness this winter compared to any winter since 2019. Hope I haven't jinxed things already but I'm a wee bit more hopeful about this winter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Couldn't agree more, Snow is very much a novelty on these shores, so i'll happily put up with frozen hands and toes for a week or so if we get significant snow fall. This sh!t of freezing rain in gale force winds makes about as much appeal to me as eating a plate of raw tripe



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,755 ✭✭✭OldRio


    Winter?

    Wants........

    Wrapping up in warm clothes. Thick socks. Good boots. Wooly hat. Gloves. Working outside with the dog. Snow on the ground. Frost catching our breath. Long slow walk back home. Dog chasing the snow. Home. Fire blazing in hearth. Feet up. Hot whiskey at hand. Book in lap. Dog asleep by my side.

    Sounds bloody wonderful.

    Gets........

    That's another story and it's miserable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,735 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    From Met Éireann :

    SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR November, December, 2024 and January 2025 (NDJ) 

    The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the NDJ period is for above average temperatures. Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending slightly below average overall.

    Mean temperatures during NDJ are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average over the three month period.

    The rainfall forecast is less certain, though there is the potential for drier spells, especially in December.

    The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be average to slightly above average during NDJ, trending 0.2 to 0.5°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies later in the period.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,735 ✭✭✭✭Supercell




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 26,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Well this is grim reading! Above average temps, mild, wet, windy weather here we come.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭wazzzledazzle


    Mild & wet is better than cold & wet

    Anyway, i wouldn't pay much attention to them LRF's/outlooks



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,617 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The SSTs are well down on last year which is a positive if you are looking for more seasonal weather this winter.

    www.weatheire.com



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 11,956 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I'll take plenty of snow on high ground at this point. Very little of that last year.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,969 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Sounds like basically a re-run of every winter since 2018 ie. strong Iberian Heights and Polar Vortex with jet displaced to our North, all strongly developing from xmas onwards with Feb now very much a spring month in terms of temps. Having said that most seasonal forecasts in recent years have been rather inaccurate to say the least and this year in particular the models have performed poorly from 5 days out in many cases!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,384 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Isn't there a school of thought that says mild for the US means better chance of cold here? Certainly extreme cold exiting the States does tend to lead to a mobile and mild Atlantic regime for these Isles



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,384 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Separately, great to see a winter thread. I post here for 6 months of the year basically like any self respecting snow junkie



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 26,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    I was disappointed to see it open up so late this year, last years one opened in August haha



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,869 ✭✭✭NickNickleby


    Take heart folks. gavsweathervids swingometer is (so far) optimistic of a cold spell this winter. And, he always acknowledges a contributor called "sryanbruen" for his/her input. A name i recognise round these parts as offering valued info.



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 26,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    Bit perturbed that my post was edited like this…I didn't type 6 weeks time I typed 2 weeks. Does this happen frequently where your posts are changed by someone else…surely deleting the post would be more appropriate. Still not sure why people care if some people think November is the start of winter and other say it is December…it certainly doesn't bother me



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,381 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    I would dearly love 2-3 weeks of clear frosty weather with gin blue skies by day, ideally from mid Dec to early Jan.

    Just to have a proper cold frosty Christmas & New Year would be such a nice experience and a bit of nostalgia for some of us older weather fans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 414 ✭✭brookers


    I think we will get a good cold spell with heavy snow. Loads of berries this year, all types. The colours are vibrant. Growing up in the mountains of Wicklow that was a sure sign of a very cold, frosty and lots of blizzards winter.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 26,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Remember the mornings where you’d wake up you could smell the frost in the air. The noise of the frost as it crunches under your foot as you walk.

    A proper winters morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,755 ✭✭✭OldRio




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69 ✭✭Silvertap


    It's been about 30 years since I heard a crunchy grass footstep. It's just not the same crispness these days



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,197 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    I reckon we are in for an absolute barnstormer of a winter, if snow and cold is what you're looking for. Polar vortex to struggle and lots of blocking opportunities and eventually the cold will be there to tap into.

    From early on too, mid-November onwards I reckon cold will get going.

    Mix of pure guess, tentative signs on some charts, and a bit of hope. Very mild outside of the cold snaps would be ideal however, for the bills.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 396 ✭✭almostthere12




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,757 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I've been watching all the recent videos from Gavsweathervids and Mark Vogan in regards to winter updates and all is looking very promising with signals pointing towards cold outbreaks this winter. I hope your right, it does seem we are in with a shot of luck this winter. However we've been burnt in the past with everything looking so promising such as the bust before Christmas a few years ago. Also last winter winter once again fell apart in January so I have to keep my feet on the ground but there is definitely some hope for this winter.

    Just looking at how this year has played out so far it's very different to recent years with regular cold spells since the end of May which has played out throughout all of summer 2024 and the first half of this Autumn. Will be interesting to see does this pattern continue right into the heart of winter and beyond.

    Hopefully plenty of exciting model watching to come over the next few months.



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