Winter 2024/25 - General Discussion

adocholiday

It would be typical that after having the coolest summer in 9 years that we'd tap back into a bit of warmth for the winter! I'm not generally a fan of the cold but I'd like to see a bit of seasonal weather all the same. The Autumn has felt quite seasonal so far so hopefully that continues into winter.

nacho libre

Speaking of crunch underfoot, during that December cold spell two years ago the hoar frost started to resemble snow and it made that magical crunchy sound underfoot. I enjoyed that cold spell,it's better than mild and wet or cold and wet,but there is no substitute for snowy cold. I am hoping we have one near nationwide heavy snow fall due to a polar low this winter.

M.T. Cranium

In general terms, would expect a rather active and at times stormy pattern with some intervals of wintry weather but no prolonged episodes. Persistent above normal heights over eastern N America past month will likely drift into west-central Atlantic, result will be alternating mild westerly and cold NNW flow patterns over western Europe and some embedded deep lows.

Ashley signals that damagig winds will be quite possible with the strongest of these storms. If it can gust to 74 kts in Oct then I would not be surprised to see Darwin-like wind speeds in one or two storms. When will cold get its chances? Probably around second half of Jan into early Feb and again late Feb into early March. One or two memorable winter storms are also quite possible given variability of pattern.

Some parts of late Nov and first half of Dec likely to be less active than later on, persistent high pressure could link up with mid-Atlantic ridge so the stormy and variable pattern may not be evident at first. In early stages of quiet early pattern it could be frosty with lows around -6 C possible. Near record warmth is likely at peak westerly flow portions of winter and timing of those (on a statistical basis) is most likely to be near Dec and Jan full moons when lunar declination of 29 deg will create very strong tidal forces. If this also coincides with peak storminess, dangerous conditions could develop along western coasts.

People will likely see a similarity to 2013-14 in this, but I do expect a bit more variety of temperature regimes in winter 2024-25.

Elmer Blooker

blocked anti cyclonic spell coming up to end October, this means it will be a colder than normal winter, every decent winter has blocking in October and every mild winter is preceded by a cyclonic October, a bit late in the month for this anticyclonic spell I know but optimistic for a proper February this winter.

squarecircles

Oh well, there you go, no prolonged cold spell, have to wait untill winter 2025…of course it could be baltic cold in the summer.

Condor24

The major models long range go for above average temperatures and average precipitation for the winter months for the ones I saw recently. A very generalised outlook which doesn't preclude the chance of short colder spells. But the form horse is mild, and I can't go against that sadly. Last winter was appalling for snow in my locality, just one day with it, in March. Nature will do what she does, we might get surprises...hopefully.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122761205#Comment_122761205

The next few weeks look mild to very mild, the pattern of regular cold snaps or spells since the beginning of summer up until recently seems to have ended for now and we are back into a prolonged mild setup. The cold snaps could come back for the winter which is wishful thinking considering how poor winters have performed since 2019. For me last winter/season hit an all time low without a single flake of snow during Winter or Spring. That 1 morning of snow around 1st of March just fell as cold rain here in Meath so we got absolutely nothing last year. This winter/season can only be an improvement.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122761597#Comment_122761597

In reference to the next few weeks being mild/very mild it looks like early November could very well be on the chilly side with frost at night. Potential for a return of a cold snap....

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122763625#Comment_122763625

Yes, it all depends on the placement of the high. As birdnut mentioned I wouldn't put too much stock in what seasonal models have to say because in recent winters they have performed poorly enough.

compsys

From June to early October Ireland had a run of almost four and a half consecutive months with temperatures below the long-term average. (Dublin and the south east were slightly above average in August but the country as a whole was below).

This would be considered a bit unusual/unlucky in normal times. But almost unheard of today given the rapidly warming climate. I'm not sure when the last time Ireland, or indeed any country, experienced a run this bad?

I'm not a believer in long-term forecasts. But I am a firm believer that things tend to even out over the medium to long term.

Because of this, I just can't see the next few months also being below average. They'll probably be well above average at least until the end of January. Already the second half of October has been extremely mild. And the mid-range forecast into November has high pressure and 12º uppers over us - the type of weather you'd expect in summer.

Hopefully we might get a cold month in February (but it'll probably be March and/or April knowing our luck). But then hopefully we might be back into a run of warmer than average temps for next summer.

But I can't see cold weather and snow any time soon.

The form horse is wet and mild. We might get a couple of frosty nights here and there. Some transient snow for mainly the North West, if we get any at all.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122770984#Comment_122770984

That's basically summed up every winter since 2019 in a nutshell.

mcburns07

Seems to be a lot of reverse pyschology going on in this thread!

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772056#Comment_122772056

I'd call it pragmatism.

Snow is rare in Ireland. Even more so in a warming climate.

Our winters in particular have been extremely mild and above average in recent years (our summers not nearly as much unfortunately). And there is nothing to suggest this winter should be markedly different.

And we've just gone through an unusual >4 month cool spell meaning we've already had our share of cold weather for the year.

If we get snow and cold this winter then great. But I'd be far more critical and sceptical of the people saying we're going to get a cold winter than those who are just being honest.

Billcarson

Since the middle of this month things seemed to have changed. Milder weather getting its claws in. I liked the first half of this autumn but since the middle of this month it's like the same ol crap again these days. Was hopeful a few days ago of a chilly early November but that ended up a bust.

JanuarySnowstor

In over 50 years of watching weather I've seen one cold November and that was 2010. Far better to get the boring stuff now when in reality it's far too early to get snow anyway...

I understand the thinking that mild has been dominant over recent winters but 2018 delivered more snow than I'd seen in 50 years and that's only 6 years ago...

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772984#Comment_122772984

One of the best snow events we ever got was on 11th February 2021. I think it was quite localized but it was lovely snow.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772984#Comment_122772984

You're correct. Cold weather in November is usually useless as it'll rarely be cold enough for snow. So better to get the 'boring' weather out of the way now. But I can't see a flip back to cooler weather again any time soon.

Mind you, the charts for November look like the sort of stuff you'd dream of for summer.

It's so frustrating that it's happening now so close to winter.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122772984#Comment_122772984

What about the cold weather in Nov off the top of my head in 85, 88, 93 etc.

Not that I would expect anything too significant in November anyway but would just like it to have a seasonal chill if possible at least.

typhoony

The Atlantic conveyor belt has been on hold which is unusual in modern times. You can expect it to fire up by mid-november when the cold air eventually mixes with the milder than usual Atlantic it will generate moisture laden low pressure systems. Just have a hunch we'll see some very wet weather by the end of November

esposito

Personally I would like a decent cold spell from mid December into early January to make Christmas and New Year feel seasonal. Of course that rarely happens.

Can anyone tell me why we nearly always have low pressure systems galore between Christmas and New Year’s Day? Honestly it’s like clockwork and I’m sick of it.

Hopefully we get a decent fall of snow during actual meteorological winter and not on March 1st!

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122773597#Comment_122773597

Perhaps it's around the time of Yr when the polar vortex can often be at its strongest. I presume that at least is one of the reasons. Resulting in a + NAO set up . Lp to our north, hp to our south and we getting mild wet rubbish.

The festive period certainly has been rubbish r any festive weather lately.

ascophyllum

Cold spilling out of North America and colliding with the warm Atlantic seems to fire up the jetstream and whenever that is strong we get whatever lows are in the Atlantic.

Another more knowledgeable poster, possibly MT Cranium, identified the New Year period and I think mid February as consistent energy peaks for storms here.

WolfeEire

Over the weekend, lots of people were talking to me about the cold spell ihn the first half of November. Have no idea where this talk has come from. MT's forecast from this morning is reflective of what is shown in models for the first half of the month i.e. rather benign setup with some rain at times.

yagan

Have only needed the heating on for a half hour each night.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122785423#Comment_122785423

It's only the 1st November though. Still autumn. The "cold" weather we primarily have is the first quarter of the year. The odd December maybe.

John.Icy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122752829#Comment_122752829

GFS has really been toying with some blocking and cold the last few days. Kicks off around +150 but can't combine the two animations on meteociel (if anyone knows the way). Big swings run to run, ECM not having it as of yet.

We're not a million miles off the first chase of the season.

esposito

Happy first day of Winter all. Let’s hope we get one or two nice surprises of the cold variety between now and March 1st.

Just watched Gavsweathervids winter 2024/25 forecast. Average to slightly colder than average winter, unlikely to have a SSW. Be interesting to see how it all transpires anyway!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122911421#Comment_122911421

His winter forecast was very interesting and points towards a cold winter, however he was right to be cautious and go for an average to slightly cooler than average winter as almost every winter is now mild and we've been let down so many times over recent winters with the mild winning out.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122911509#Comment_122911509

Yeah, the analogues were pretty good alright but as you say he was right to be cautious.

“Shryan Bruen” got a mention and expressed his thanks to him so fair play @Sryanbruen for contributing to his forecast. That was my first time watching his winter forecast. He’s very entertaining as well as knowledgeable I have to say.