General Irish politics discussion thread

This from the same guy who opened a thread in 2008 complaining that there is a 'Royalist bias' with the boards.ie Mods and Admins, in regards the Queen's visit to Ireland.

The man is a true believer of the Republican cause (violent and otherwise) but lies about his voting intentions and past all the time, in an attempt to cover the true work he is doing here. Defend SF at all costs…

Had you read even the synopsis of the massive data assessed on online platforms by Dr Ian Richardson the other day, he reckoned there is no truth to be discerned in the data as to the existence of 'Shinnerbots'.

So it's a myth you are peddling.

Still no evidence of the FG leader taking public responsibility for his supporters being in 2nd place in toxic behaviour online.

If FF & FG are below the 50% seat mark, even barely, IMO they will look to recruit the largest of the soft left parties, which at this point looks very likely to be the Soc Dems. If your government is dependent on the support of anything north of 5 or 6 independents, things get messy and complicated…

The Greens have in fairness achieved a lot. They will retain a handful of seats and if they get the messaging right, throughout the campaign, they may save a few more. They will lose seats, however.

But, that is ok. They can regroup, have a presence in the Dail, and hammer the government on certain issues and keep them honest. I expect them to be back with a bang after the next GE.

A party with six seats, having won the only by-election and regained a European seat during the term of the Dáil, and improved polling on the last election, plus an expansion of seats, would be targeting ~10 seats.

The two seat prediction guys on Twitter cannot predict for small parties at all, so don't trust their single seat predictions as "expectations". For example, they were both predicting Howlin to lose his seat last time, he came second. Think there was only one of them doing it for 2016, predicted Howlin to lose his seat and he topped the poll.

On the flip side, one of them now thinks that Labour are going to retain the Dublin Bay North seat which is nearly impossible. Because their models don't work for small parties.

Soc Dems don't have any clear target seats and could easily lose two or three of the ones they hold; I'd be very surprised if they retain DNW now; and not at all surprised if Holly loses her seat.

I sincerely hope that woman looses her seat… she's been hopeless in the Justice portfolio… A chimp in Dublin Zoo would do better!

Let me know if any party leader says "We are not interested in going into government". 😜

The Soc Dems will campaign to participate in a fantasy left-wing government and Holly will dodge every effort to pin her down on the most realistic option - FG/FF.

Of course, after the election it will be game on and Holly hopes that the numbers will give her leverage but why would FG/FF bring them into government when they will demand money for everything, claim credit for every initiative and jump ship at the first sign of trouble? Much easier to buy the necessary Independents with local boondoggles - they will be loyal so long as their local projects are funded.

Holly needs to get her message straight, not this mumbo-jumbo.

“We’re not going to promise large tax cuts and huge investment in public services.

The first part is fairly clear - no tax relief for the rich (FG voters) - but she immediately contradicts herself on the second part

“Our aim has always been clear, and it still is – we want investment, we want investment in public services to try to lift people out of poverty. Our priorities are housing, healthcare, climate, disability and childcare.”

So the SDs want more public investment in all the biggest areas but just don't say "huge". Although the Government is spending over €100 Billion a year, that is not enough for the SDs and no increase, however large, shall be called "huge"

I haven't seen a serious constituency-by-constituency analysis but Labour consistently poll around 4% and were the fourth largest party in the local elections. They should win at least 5 or 6 (i.e. hold their own), and maybe win a couple more on a good day.

The Soc Dems got a poll bounce with Holly Cairns and are still about 6%. They are transfer-friendly and could get 8/9 with the right candidates. But the collapse in SF polling is benefitting the Independents, not the minor left-wing parties who endorse the social policies (migration, family/carers referendums) which have cost SF their new-found supporters (does anyone care about, or even understand, the shenanigans with Brian Stanley, Niall Ó Donnaghaile et al?).

If, against all odds, the Independents can't deliver the votes for the next FG/FF Taoiseach, there is no doubt that FG/FF will deal with Labour before the SDs (and with everyone else before the Greens and SF😏)

By assuming that some SF voters are going to vote for them by mistake?

(both parties have candidates that are bald men with glasses called Eoin O Broin!)