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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,715 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    There seems to be endless low minimum wage jobs out there but IT, pharma have slowed way down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,686 ✭✭✭brickster69


    I am sure it was dollars lent payment in Yuan. Anyway, i'm sure they would accept payment in commodities same thing really, 1.4 billion people i'm sure they go through a few apples, cocoa, cobalt and stuff won't they. They are all money at the end of the day really.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,007 ✭✭✭yagan


    Yeah, a lot of people in my age remember the 80s and high unemployment, anyone who had a job was minted so the narrative of a lot people in my generation is it's all cushy if nearly everyone has a job. They just don't appreciate that low wages attracts workers from much poorer countries who know they'll never be able to afford a house here so their plans remain short term.

    Half of my Dublin born nieces and nephews moved elsewhere in Europe because even with their third level education they can't afford homes near their parents who never went to third level! The other half still live with their parents despite having solid employment.

    The greatest irony is that those who live elsewhere in Europe enjoy affordable spacious apartments near everything.

    Irish planning is obsessed with semi-d in a similar manner to the US obsession with single house homes in sprawling carmageddon.

    Post edited by yagan on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,965 ✭✭✭DataDude


    And yet the median wage in the country is increasing at the fastest rate in decades, and the speed of growth increased again in Q2.

    Doesn’t fit the narrative of a society move from high wage to lower wage jobs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    back n 80’s leaving cert was the equivalent of a degree today and inter cert in 80’s was the equivalent of leaving today… a degree in the 80’s is probably the equivalent of a masters today….. I’m not judging the quality of degrees etc just saying that % of population holding them etc has increased massively



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,836 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    and we re all the better for opening up our educational system, both economically and socially



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,007 ✭✭✭yagan


    The thrust of my post is that planning has not adapted to meet demand of even high wage earners.

    On top of their offspring now living affordably abroad they're stuck in a big house with zero comfortable options to downsize to in their Dublin suburb where they want to stay to be close to their friends.

    If they could downsize comfortably they'd have a very comfortable wedge to winter in Spain now they're retired.

    So thanks to the dominance of semi-d planning both parent and offspring options for life change are limited.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,495 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Fair enough, assuming that is real - it shows an improvement of around 11% over 45 years, or an average of 0.25% per annum. While that is an improvement, it's not much of an improvement; and that's assuming the figures haven't been massaged in any way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,495 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Someone else mentioned the 1980s, when you were minted if you had a job.

    Another thing about the 1980s was that the economy grew every year, if I have understood the figures correctly, which allowed FitzGarbage to say that all was hunkydory, no really, all those people leaving every year were just on a gap year, it was a "lifestyle choice".
    Unfortunately inflation was way higher than the growth in the economy, leaving us with an overall "negative growth" in the economy. I wonder if Fitzgarbage mentioned that reality?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,686 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Janet Yellen to make an unscheduled presser this afternoon.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,842 ✭✭✭silliussoddius




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    This isn't even a brag because I don't think I've even beaten the market but since this thread's start may 2022, I've made approx a 28% annual return in my retirement fund. Don't live in fear lads.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,836 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    asset markets have been largely doing well, but generally are a very poor indicator of whats occurring in other parts of the economy, pension funds are commonly invested in asset markets, best of luck with your investments



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,686 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Brics looking into setting up a commodity exchange for the likes of energy, metals and grain.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 421 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    Rentals are unaffordable for those on minimum wage jobs, even when there are rentals available. Well paid employees no longer come over in great numbers or leave within a few months due to the rental issue. The economy is at a point where something needs to give to unlock the stalemate as further growth is being risked in a big way. Yet the government only cares about the next election so throws away some of that precious corporate tax revenue in a giveaway budget. For Ireland it seems that we are walking into a decline with our eyes wide open and no one can claim that it was not foreseen; everyone and his dog will still be blamed instead of the actual politicians in charge at the time who squandered the public monies.

    The US war machine has been in operation for a few years now; the last step to take when an economy is failing is to go to war.

    China is on the brink of unleashing massive QE into its economy as it is faltering yet again.

    Interest rates are being cut in the Eurozone for the reason that the Eurozone economic performance has been weak.

    Given the US economic performance being such an influence on the global economy, the game has now moved into the arena of politics and, no matter the winner, what starts to happen after the election is going to be an indication of what will happen globally.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,405 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    We will spend the bulk of the additional windfall on infrastructure

    Not sure what the "US war machine" is, but the economy over there is not doing badly

    China is indeed having problems, but it's more of a China problem

    Interest rates are being cut generally because inflation has decreased under higher rates



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Since this thread started

    S&P 500 +38%
    Nasdaq +68%
    Dow Jones +38%
    FTSE 100 +13%

    Bitcoin +123%

    Oil -33.3%

    Gold +40%

    Shanghai SE +3%

    Irish inflation +8%

    ISEQ +48%

    Best global recession ever 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,686 ✭✭✭brickster69


    ****ing hell, that prediction was meant as a joke by the way.

    debt.jpg

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Is that new debt that is adding to their national debt or just rolling over existing debt? There is a difference.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,836 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    rolling of existing id imagine, and thankfully so, or we d all be fcuked!



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  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    So @brickster69 (love username) to summarise:

    • US - investors throwing capital at one of the best performing economies and queuing up to buy debt in low single digit interest rates, stock exchanges at all time highs, recession any day now for 2.5 years
    • Russia - “BRICS stronk!” most assets seized, stuck in a vicious war they started, stock exchange worthless as no one can withdraw, trading in mandarins and lentils with “allies”, no one wants their debt even at now 21% interest

    Have I got all that correct? 😄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,842 ✭✭✭silliussoddius




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,405 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You forgot; a tweet with alarm bells on it and a graph with a big spike in it with the phrase "something has to give"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,686 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭Deub




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,686 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Very true, it is a very specialist thing that can't just be swapped out quickly. You could have all sorts of safety problems.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    How the f does one “counterfeit” a common atomic metallic element

    Which happens to be the 9th most abundant on earth

    We reached peak daftness and a recession of common sense



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭Deub


    very false. You claimed dozens of boomerangs. We are still waiting.

    On this report (which was well reported in June), what makes you think it is a boomerang? Do you have reliable sources?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,836 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    theres high quality titanium, then theres sh1te quality titanium, then theres those that try to claim sh1te quality is actually high quality, seems to be turning up more and more across some sectors, which is deeply concerning, was lucky to work in the aviation sector for a while, working directly with high quality titanium, lovely material to work with, very malleable



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,686 ✭✭✭brickster69


    It is not the raw material it is counterfeit certified alloys that is made from the raw material.

    If they want to sanction Titanium they just have to sanction the world largest specialist producer of all those things, then they just need to find a new specialist supplier that has the expertise and capacity to make all those things and buy from them instead.

    Sound familiar “We think sanctioning titanium from Russia would be sanctioning ourselves,” Airbus Chief Executive Guillaume Faury. They still buy today, they receive what they buy, they make planes and employ 150 thousand people what is the point of risking that for another PR exercise ?

    Palladium is just as bad, just what the car industry needs now in Europe. Sanction 40% of the Palladium and what happens to the price ?

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



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