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Ireland's reliance on Corporation Tax receipts

  • 20-10-2024 08:51AM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,246 ✭✭✭✭


    Exchequer faces €31bn deficit by 2030 if corporate taxes fall

    Modelling by the Department of Finance highlights the ‘magnitude of the vulnerability’ of the state’s reliance on windfall corporate taxes

    https://www.businesspost.ie/news/exchequer-faces-e31bn-deficit-by-2030-if-corporate-taxes-fall/

    No exaggeration to say this could be a disaster in the making and I think every right thinking person should be very angry at the giveaway budget. This is 2008 all over again.

    The opposition parties wanted to spend more.

    Obviously lessons from the trauma of 2008 - 2010 have not been learned.

    Then it was unsustainable housing market income that ultimately led to the IMF bailout. Same thing is going to happen again.

    Post edited by Kermit.de.frog on


«13456710

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Yes, and when it does our politicians will just blame Trump or some other future US politician. They will say we could not foresee this happening. It will happen.

    What will make it far worse is the current intentional destruction of the farming and tourism industries. It will bottom out in a worse place than the last crash.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,484 ✭✭✭NSAman


    I agree. Ireland is facing a complete and utter financial disaster in the coming years. There is total over reliance on foreign entities. The levelling of the tax laws internationally (with other countries becoming more attractive) will end the “Ireland is an at an advantage as we are in Europe and English speaking”.

    Let’s be honest here, we are not dealing with rational people when we talk about politicians. ‘Live now, pay later” is always going to be their way of buying votes. No plans for the future. If we as people lived our lives like this we would be in financial ruin …. Ohh wait… 2008!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,207 ✭✭✭Damien360


    We have learned nothing. I have been saying to friends for years that this has all the hallmarks of 2008 again. Left leaning government, giveaway budgets, insane housing prices, unsustainable housing investments, really poor building quality (the next big fix), massive corporate receipts. And to top it off, we are filling the country with extra welfare recepients daily. Inflation is locally out of control especially on food, and energy while Europe is cutting interest rates which just stokes the fire for us. We are in trouble and the world is overdue a recession. Big industry is cutting back globally (pharma and intel for us - job cuts incoming).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭Madeoface


    There's no doubt the CT take has increased to a worrying extent. Dept. Finance are like met eireann now though, so many red warnings that peter out. We're still in surplus.

    What has to happen now, in surplus times, is to stop Xmas 'bonuses' for the welfare classes, stop any welfare increase above inflation, stop pointless expenditure schemes and reduce the number of NGO's.

    On the tax side, keep inheritance tax as it is. We''ll be looking at USC rates go back up when CT starts falling and the Vat net widening.

    Except for the giveaways to the non working I thought the budget was good. I'd have extended vat cut in hospitality though in lieu of the child benefit double double (I have kids, don't need it twice). Government needs to increase capital spending and take a long hard look at current spending, like administration staff levels in the HSE, disability benefits, rte, payments to Peter mcverry trust and their ilk....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 439 ✭✭Grassy Knoll


    Someone talking sense - I fully agree, this is an issue that does not get the attention it deserves. While there has been moves to put some money in a sovereign wealth fund, the government is still spending a large amount of the windfall CT monies on buying the election. I understand we are actually running a deficit if the transitory corporation tax are discounted. Effectively we are building a lifestyle on ‘overtime’ earnings with a high risk that this will income not be continued in the medium term.

    Some will rightly point to infrastructural deficits, housing etc, but the reality is with an economy at full employment the people to do this work are not there.all will happen is the prices will go up. Better the money be saved and invested when capacity is there to spend it. Essentially this might mean in years ahead we have the money to invest in bad times, retaining employment, lessening the possibility of cutbacks, emigration, unemployment etc. and it it isn’t as if the government are not spending billions on these areas currently.

    we never learn the lessons in this country, the easy political option always, no long term planning. We will in all likelihood look back at these years as when the rot began to set in again. There are warnings from within the civil service and fiscal council, but these are going unheeded.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,837 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    I would love to see the Government put away more of our CT receipts into rainy day funds, because one thing is certain, rainy days will come again.

    We are really flush with money at present and it looks like it'll continue for a few years yet, but it doesn't mean you have to go mad with it and give it all away willy nilly. Be smart and realise that it might not always be here. Save most of it while it's coming it.

    But no, there was an election to be bought, so let's have another giveaway budget. Politics in this country is so short term. About the here and now and the next couple of years at maximum. A bit of the old 'ah sure it'll be grand' logic.

    Stop being so generous to those who don't want to work in a time of full employment. How we have adults who have never worked in their lives is beyond me. Then again, it should not be a case of it being a lifestyle choice. You should ALWAYS be better off working. Benefits should be reduced over time, not increased. 'Ah sure Xmas is coming, here have a double bonus'. Crazy logic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,246 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    What I can't understand is you would think 2008 would be burnt in to the Irish psyche with all those lives destroyed, all those young people who had to leave a broken country.

    Yet here we are again. Exact same sh!t. Expanding spending on taxes that most likely will not last.

    We know where this ends. At least most of us do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Do we know how many workers we have directly employed in FDI?
    Let’s take the top 5 multinationals that are here and get a figure on employees- how many would that be?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,957 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Ireland is a rich country and I'm not sure it feels like one, outside of property prices and a few specific areas.

    I think relying on corporation tax is a dangerous strategy as resentment against corporations' tax evasion grows. I think there needs to be some sort of coordinated international attempt to make sure these companies pay their taxes. It would go a long way towards improving the housing and infrastructure situations if nothing else.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    The thing I don't understand about all this over the years is how the current government don't get enough criticism for how badly they have managed all of this. They have zero impact on MNCs and tax receipts, this gold mine all came about in late 80s and 90s when policy was changed. Obviously they won't change it but more needs to be written about how this government has achieved nothing and just ridden on the coattails of the profits of a few MNCs. While they claim about how great they have managed the economy, yet the opposite is true in how they managed government finances. Essentially all they've done over the last no of years is use this money to buy votes.they really can't stop spending, it's crazy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,299 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Cormac lucey in the Sunday times last week said we as reliant on multinationals to pay the bills as we were reliant on the potato to survive pre famine.

    Think Joe soaps aren't overextending, neither are banks. Government spending is completely out of control. They announced a further billion in welfare and housing last week, 2 weeks since the budget- all optics not putting it in budget, try n not look as bad.

    They can't pee it away quick enough!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    This money really needs to be put into infrastructure and increasing the capacity to build infrastructure.
    We’ve a massive demand for housing, but we don’t have enough skilled workers to deliver it, we should be increasing this capacity.

    We need more housing, transport and energy upgrades/new builds, but everything gets stuck in ABP. We need to upgrade this department massively and get building when we have the workers available for key projects.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭Madeoface


    Total FDI employees were 301,475 in 2022. Oireachtas figure may 2023.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,246 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    They are paying their taxes, more and more - in Ireland. That's the problem for this country.

    It doesn't have to be a problem so long as it is not used to fund public spending.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,039 ✭✭✭jackboy


    When the next crash happens and the IMF are back, they will tax and cut where ever necessary. The last time they focused on workers, many from Multinationals. If they are depleted, tourism and farming already intentionally destroyed, then that leads to benefits being reduced on mass. That will be a very different sort of recession.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 540 ✭✭✭Madeoface


    Ah sure the Fiscal Council were at it too. Doubled the money to their Chair a year or two ago.

    Do as I say, not as I do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭JVince


    This is almost like a repeat of the bs scare stories the business post has published in 2015, 16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23.

    They will do the same in 2025,26,27,28,29,30 etc etc.

    Whilst a world recession would affect Ireland badly, the normal to's and fro's of business will not

    Yes, we have to manage and watch things, but a lot of that tax is from Irish based operations of these companies.

    It's a while since I bought the business post as they have gone down the daily mail route if hysterics. The Currency is way above the bp in terms of journalism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,083 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    We're paying too much in tax, I see this morning we might be joining the European Iron Dome that won't be cheap and makes us a legitimate target.

    Billions are going to NGO's and Millions more fighting them in the courts.

    We're not going to be able to afford welfare if the economy does take a tumble, what happened in Denmark will unfold here but we're just a few years behind.

    Europe wants the big multinationals in the likes of Germany and France, America wants them home. The right incentives and they'll leave here.

    We're back to the half a million 3 Bed semi, this isn't sustainable. The war in Ukraine should be over before Christmas so hopefully that'll take pressure off housing. That could create some discontent as we'll end with people looking for negative equity bailouts.

    I think in the round we'll be ok, the country needs serious infrastructure development especially with transport, road, rail etc. Travel times are ridiculous for a small island. That money should be spent now not when things take a wobble.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,500 ✭✭✭howiya


    The COVID pandemic hasn't helped. Yes it was right at the time that government help people but it has created an expectation that the government have to or should pay for everything. Current government expenditure has ballooned since.

    We need a fiscally prudent party to tackle waste and expenditure obut there's no votes in that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,135 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    60% of households in this county are negative beneficiaries to the state.


    Just think of that, only 4/10 households benefit the state positively financially.


    Yes we are on course for another recession which will be worst seems we’ve added another 500,000 people since the last one.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Where are ya getting those stats from?
    That’s insane!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,135 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,474 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    2008 is burnt into the minds of Irish voters - but they’ve been peddled rubbish that it was all the fault of the banks, the bondholders and greedy developers.
    The irresponsible economics pushed by each and every political party from 2002-2008 (and endorsed by the electorate) are given free pass



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,135 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    IMG_0547.jpeg

    Here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,550 ✭✭✭Pauliedragon


    I'm not disputing those figures but I'd like to see stats on how many of those households in the 60% are OAP households.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 880 ✭✭✭creeper1


    The contrast between the UK and Ireland could not be more stark. Ireland is expected to have a budget surplus of 10 billion euros this year (edit it's actually it is more like 25 billion when taking apple's one off payment into account) and next year is projected to balloon to a truly mind boggling 20.8 billion euros. An unimaginable amount of money!

    The UK is actually in a budget deficit. They have a black hole and need to go cutting ✂️ winter payments to pensioners.

    Long may this continue (and by all accounts it will with 2026 and 2027 all being projected to bring in ever increasing amounts of money 🤑).

    It does lead to wasteful spending however and we see wasteful examples of money thrown away on bike sheds and dail offices. The ballooning cost of the children's hospital and ridiculously expensive modular homes for Ukrainians.

    When there is so much money around there is no need for any real fiscal discipline and public private partnerships have the private milking a lot of the money from the state.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,132 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Are those figures based on working age range?
    ie excluding beneficiaries of the state pension?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 439 ✭✭Grassy Knoll


    the issue is we are nearly all welfare recipients in this country: children's allowance, energy credits, free school books, free dinners, all sorts of grants to unviable SMEs, agriculture, double double allowances … etc etc … the gravy being doled out is across society, we are nearly all in it … what went on in the recent budget is repeating the mistakes of the past … remember this is a right of centre government, imagine it was a bunch of left wingers ….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,313 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yes, it is a worry.

    image.png

    Credit to Seamus Coffey, UCC.

    image.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,313 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Here is some analysis of the concentration risk:



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