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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,777 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    you can clearly see, particularly across advanced economies, we re in serious trouble regarding wealth distribution, as its clearly going rapidly in the wrong direction, which is now turning up in our political domains, including here in ireland, one of the main spaces its showing itself is in our highly dysfunctional property markets, and now we ve decided the best thing to do is to blame it all on immigrants, policies such as qe have radically failed!

    yes wages have risen, but the value of assets such as property has also risen, and in many cases far quicker than wages, rent has also risen, so this in fact means many workers are actually worse off, as more and more income is going towards servicing the debts of the valuation of property and of rising rents, again, as can be seen here in ireland to.

    so who wins in all of this, well asset owners of course, which is very lopsided towards older generations, boomers in the states of course, and you d be wondering why many are still falling over themselves for trump!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,495 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I read that real wages in the US haven't increased since the 1960s. So if the US economy is very healthy, most people aren't getting any value from it.

    This is very much like "wealthy on paper" Ireland where services stagnate, housing becomes more and more expensive, healthcare is holding on by a thread and all but a small minority are being squeezed to feed the rentier class - who are the ideological heirs to the land agents, "strong" farmers and other middlemen when Ireland was owned by the Cromwellian and other planters.



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    You may also want to click the Bloomberg link on Bidens achievements few posts up

    Meanwhile millions continue trying to vote with their feet and emigrate into US



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 34,126 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    You are probably wrong. The dataset below doesn't go back to the 60s, only 1979, but the general trend over that period is clear.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,777 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and again, yes wealth has in fact rapidly grown during this period, but so to has wealth inequality, whereby more and more are now struggling to meet critical needs such as housing and health care etc. each new generation requires to spend more and more of their income simply trying to meet these critical needs, most notably in their housing needs, mortgage and rental payments.

    as others have mentioned, this dynamic is generally called 'rent seeking' or a rentier environment, whereby the ownership of wealth, in the form of assets, becomes more and more concentrated. so yes, on paper, it all looks hunky dory, as the metrics we use to measure the well being of our economies effectively ignores this reality and these dynamics, the main losers in such is generally younger generations, again, this is extremely evident with our now extremely dysfunctional property markets, in which most advanced economies are now experiencing, including here in ireland.

    on paper, the irish economy looks really strong, but the reality is, our society is in tatters, largely due to these dynamics, if we continue as is, this will eventually lead to significant economic and societal dysfunctions, of which we re already starting to experience, with the rapid rise in issues such as mental health issues, addictions problems, relationship breakdown, a rise in particular types of crimes etc etc.

    its also common for major parts of the economy such as sme sectors to experience significant disruptions and uncertainties, as theres simply less money in circulation, this is largely due to the slowing of the velocity of the money supply in these sectors, as people require to spend more money on other critical needs such as property payments, rather than with these sme's

    larger businesses such as large corporations tend not to be as exposed as these sme's, as they tend to have significantly more state and institutional protections in place, and would more than likely be simply bailed out if needs be, sme's rarely if ever experience such protections.

    noting, its common that sme sectors actually employ most, so therefore potentially most employees, and employers in these sectors are in fact extremely exposed and experience significant precariousness due to these facts, i.e. most now live under such precariousness



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Price of oranges skyrocketing, would of been a great investment just a few weeks ago.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,795 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    Not as good as pumpkins, going to hold them right through January.



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Post edited by thatsdaft on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,126 ✭✭✭Thespoofer




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    isn’t that public debt that you are always posting saying is way better than private debt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Duke brothers must be at again….. they probably need to be thought another lesson by Eddie Murphy and Dan Akyroyd….ps the barrel of oranges must really be empty as it’s showing loads of scrapes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They might just hit trillion a month if they can squeeze another one in on the 31st. I wonder what they doing with it all ?

    usdebt.jpg

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭Deub


    And?

    What scares you? The big numbers? Or you don’t know what is behind it ? Or both?

    Do you think they should invest in oranges this year to reduce it?



  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    It is a huge deficit they are running. It's over 6% of GDP. Irish GDP is about €500B so it would be the equivalent of us running a deficit of over €30B. Even if you use our modified GNI figure of €300B it would be the equivalent of us having a deficit of over €18B. I know the US is different for many, many reasons but even still it seems wildly unsustainable especially that their national debt is well over 100% of GDP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    That is incredible, the sustainability of debt in the modern western world is going to be a serious issue this decade

    There might not be a global recession, which in reality is a depression because even slight global growth happens in very bad times but what we could see is Europe and America having sluggish growth, less so america id guess but pumping money In non stop is the done thing now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    I think continuously creating new money leads to a currency weakening and gives rise to inflation. I don't think it is as good a thing as some people make out and difficult to see anyone doing what needs to be done soon.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭Deub




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,819 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    China and the US are both in trouble. The false dichotomy here of being either pro USA or pro China is tiresome alright.

    Both are fecked because both are throwing money around like it grows on trees in an attempt to keep their economies growing and their international influence strong.

    The thing about China is it is a police state - best of luck to anyone protesting the Chinese government when the economic sh*t hits the fan.

    The US with it's armed citizenry and greater freedoms will see greater level of unrest and protest when the economy ails again and the national budget gets ever tighter due to increased interest payments as a proportion of revenue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,229 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    The job market has seriously slowed down . A different animal to this time last year . Something is brewing .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,004 ✭✭✭yagan


    With China isn't it more a case of throwing around it's USD surplus?

    It's established currency swaps with Australia for iron ore, Qatar for LNG and last year with Saudi Arabia for oil.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They are currently loaning Usd reserves to Africa but only accepting redemption in Yuan.

    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,004 ✭✭✭yagan




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,004 ✭✭✭yagan


    Surely that will eventually show up in the rental market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,004 ✭✭✭yagan


    Hang on a second, where are they expected to get yuan if it's only a peer international currency.

    Do you have a link explaining this?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    I agree but nobody wants to admit it has slowed down. Everyone is going on and on about how we have full employment.

    Remember the shills only get paid when you react to them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,399 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    There has been a slowdown (since peak) and unemployment is still low (currently 4.3%), which has been the average since early 2022. Historically we haven't gone much lower than this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Niccolò Machiavelli :

    "To ally with great powers to defeat your neighbour is a strategic trap; if you win, you become the slave of the greater power; if the allied power is defeated, you remain alone and defenceless against the angry neighbour, and you are destroyed." - Niccolò Machiavelli



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,004 ✭✭✭yagan


    Yuan loans only make sense if there's resources involved, like how Australia has a yuan currency swap for exporting iron ore in exchange for Chinese finished goods.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,004 ✭✭✭yagan


    Technically isn't 4% essentially full employment?



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