M4 - Maynooth to Leixlip [constr. of inbound bus lane underway;planning and design underway on rest]

Very succinctly put.

Several swift kicks would be better. Nonsense argument.

There's four cars in my family. I can safely say that no one has ever said, 'oh, they've put an extra lane, widen the road, whatever, I have to start driving on it'. Total nonsense.

Takes no account of the rapidly rising population, increasing numbers at work, the continious extension of the commuter belt and the absence of a decent public transport system.

A recent article I read, can't remeber where - 1961 census gave a population of 2.6m. Today, it's c.5.3m. So, for anyone born in 1961 and enjoying a normal life expectancy, the population will have doubled in their life time.

Totally unprecedented and little to no planning. The roads are just one issue, looks at the hospitals, waiting lists, school places, child care, cost of houses, rents…

So to take the 'induced argument' and apply it to one area that has demand problems, schools. Don't build/extend schools as the classrooms will only be filled. And then apply to all the other areas.

Would you ever get a dose of reality. The majoriity of car users (commuters) have no realistic alternative.

Talking about induced demand, widening existing roads and all that nonsense is just any old excuse to avoid dealing with the underlying problem. Total failure to plan and cater for a rising population.

Again, active travel is nonsene to the long distance commuter.

Two use the train (7 minute walk) to/from work, socialising, etc. I cycle even though I have free parking. When the building was being totaly renovated c.25 years ago I was able to insist that changing rooms and showers were installed. Now, we have them on three floors. Also, secure bicycle storage with CCTV. The fourth drives simply as there is no PT and the roads are unlit and basiclly a rat run.

PT for me is very direct and I use it, if going out after work or something similar.

I know how lucky we are as regards commuting. Walking in the Phoenix Park the other evening about 6pm. Looking out towards the Spa Hotel, nothing but a red glare from all the vehicles backed up becasue some genius decided to put two sets of traffic light there and not a freeflow over forty years ago. Proof positive of no forward planning.

Over thirty years there was a train and 8.10 am and 8.30am and no problem getting a seat. Now, there's god knows how many trains and there all packed.

Do you wonder why? Could it possibly be that the population has increased?

You're going to a suburban industrial estate; not the city centre and I'm pretty sure 41mins at peak times there is a fantasy; I couldn't get there in 41mins and I'm significantly closer!

I only travel off peak as I can usually time my drive to the minute..... Which is usually 46 minutes, driving south from Trim to kilcock and then m4 to palmerstown and through chapelizod. The office is a little under 4km from the m50 and a little over 4km from Dame Street. I've walked from the office to Dame Street in just over 45 minutes before so I'm definitely in the city area, just not the very centre. If I'm socializing after work, weather permitting, I'll usually walk into the city as the time taken is not that much greater than the "active travel" option.... Plus I get the health benefits of walking as well as knowing how long the walk will take.

This project is to improve the public transport infrastructure. What point are you trying to make?

That it has a long long way to go for the vast majority of the population, for public transport to become in any way even slightly viable as an alternative to the car.

Almost two hours to travel less than 50km using public transport, from a town near Dublin to a destination close to the city centre of Dublin is shocking. Plus that's outside of peak traffic hours.

On the infrastructure side it's just slow unfortunately. Dart Plus, Metrolink and the BusConnects corridors seem like they'll all finally start construction in the near future though and that will be a huge improvement for Dublin at least. Outside Dublin, CACR and the BusConnects stuff should make a difference too.

The bus service around the country is undoubtedly getting better in real time, especially with the Connecting Ireland stuff.

Why do you think Induced Demand is nonsense? It is not a very intuitive concept but do you have an hard evidence, studies etc. as to why it is nonsense, or does it just sound like nonsense to you?

You saying something is nonsense vs. the body of evidence that it isn't, is not a compelling argument.

Decades of peer-reviewed scientific research versus your hunch. I know which I'm going for.

Here, have a 2018 meta-review, done for a Government who would dearly have like for it to not exist. The line "Induced demand continues to occur and may be significant in some situations." should be of core consideration here.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c0e5848e5274a0bf3cbe124/latest-evidence-on-induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review.pdf

My understaning of the word induce = succeed in persuading to do something.

So using this peer reviewed logic of induced demand, all the people stuck in their cars have somehow been persuaded to be there rather than trying to get to/from work, etc… A riduclious interpretation. Call it what it is, increased demand, due primarily from a rising population and rising numbers at work.

Driving to work in 1992 took 30/35 minutes. Today it would take 70/80 minutes. More than double using the same route and no change in speed limits.

Now, I wonder why that is? It's a bit like in the Irish RM, when Slipper tells the Major's wife, if you knew the answer to that, you'd know everything.

The term is taken from Economics, particularly in relation to pricing. If you subsidise the cost of something, you induce additional demand for that thing.

From the user's side of transportation planning, the "price" of taking a journey is basically the time it takes to make it. If you live on a quiet rural road, your price to go 5km to the nearest shop is probably 5 minutes including parking. At that price, if you're short of something, you will usually just get in the car, go to the town and get it.

If your road is closer to capacity, or the town has a major road running thorough, your price to do the same trip will be higher, maybe 15 minutes. Now, you're less likely to hop in the car for minor errands: you'll wait until you need something else too, and only then will you go. But, say you're on a bus route too: the bus costs 10 minutes (a less direct route, but no cost of finding parking), so when there's a bus due, sometimes you'll take that rather than the car.

So, what happens if your busy road goes from 2 lanes to four? It actually costs €20 million for the stretch you used, but thanks to centralised spending of taxes, you don't pay that - all that new road capacity looks, to you, to be entirely free of charge. The increased supply of road space means that your 15-minute cost of travel drops to 7 minutes. That makes it more likely that you'll drop into town on a small errand. It's also faster than the bus at any time, so now you stop taking the bus, and drive for every trip.

A good result, right? Wrong.

The problem is that you are not the only person with a car. In reality, you and thousands of others see that initial reduction in trip cost, and as a result you will take more trips. Give it a year or so, and that additional demand for road capacity consumes the extra supply, and you're back to a 15-minute price of travel.

But in the meantime, low ridership has meant that the bus operator cancelled your local service, so you end up with an overall higher cost of travel: there is no longer the option of the 10 minute bus trip. (Cancellation of that bus also generates more car trips, as those bus users still need to travel)

That's bad enough, but let's revisit the bit that was free to you: €20 million to widen the stretch of road that you (and the others) used. From the government's point of view, they started with a utility that allowed travel from your location to the town at a cost of 15 minutes, or 10 by bus. After spending €20 million, within two years, they have... a utility that allows travel at a cost of 15 minutes.

... and people get angry about bike shelters.

I used to work in this area, I have seen the data. Population growth accounts for only a fraction of traffic growth. User behaviour always changes to consume the additional resource. For example, one bad effect when you add road capacity is "de-pooling", where members of a household decide to take separate cars for the same general journey rather than sharing: higher congestion, no additional people moved.

These effects happen within 5-10 years: no population doubles in that time.