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M4 - Maynooth to Leixlip [constr. of inbound bus lane underway;planning and design underway on rest]

marno21

Consultants to be appointed by May 2019 to progress the M4 between Maynooth and Leixlip through Phases 1-4 of TII's Project Management Guidelines

Project will include 10km of upgrade and capacity issues at the Maynooth junction (J7) will also be investigated

Preliminary costed at €100m. https://www.kildarestreet.com/debates/?id=2019-03-07a.314

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buffalo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727474#Comment_122727474

Very succinctly put.

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727448#Comment_122727448

It's a very simple concept really - widening roads to "solve" traffic issues does NOT solve traffic issues. You're just creating more space for the least efficient form of transport, that being the private car.

If a bus lane / public transport encourages more people out of cars, then it actually benefits the people who have no choice but to drive, or simply choose to drive. It's win win.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728018#Comment_122728018

Maybe this time it will be different from every other time?

🤪

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122728175#Comment_122728175

We're SO CLOSE to fixing traffic. Just one more lane should do it....

I can't believe this road actually exists. It's the Katy Freeway in Houston. 🤔🤦

I told ya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122727448#Comment_122727448

Several swift kicks would be better. Nonsense argument.

There's four cars in my family. I can safely say that no one has ever said, 'oh, they've put an extra lane, widen the road, whatever, I have to start driving on it'. Total nonsense.

Takes no account of the rapidly rising population, increasing numbers at work, the continious extension of the commuter belt and the absence of a decent public transport system.

A recent article I read, can't remeber where - 1961 census gave a population of 2.6m. Today, it's c.5.3m. So, for anyone born in 1961 and enjoying a normal life expectancy, the population will have doubled in their life time.

Totally unprecedented and little to no planning. The roads are just one issue, looks at the hospitals, waiting lists, school places, child care, cost of houses, rents…

So to take the 'induced argument' and apply it to one area that has demand problems, schools. Don't build/extend schools as the classrooms will only be filled. And then apply to all the other areas.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732068#Comment_122732068

So you think making it easier to drive by widening existing roads or by creating new ones doesn't make people think that it would be easier to drive?
You think that skewing travelling options towards driving and away from active travel?
How many of the four car owners in your house use publiuc transport more than twice a week?
If public transport was more direct, more frequent and quicker, would you use it (because that too is induced demand)?

I told ya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732167#Comment_122732167

Would you ever get a dose of reality. The majoriity of car users (commuters) have no realistic alternative.

Talking about induced demand, widening existing roads and all that nonsense is just any old excuse to avoid dealing with the underlying problem. Total failure to plan and cater for a rising population.

Again, active travel is nonsene to the long distance commuter.

Two use the train (7 minute walk) to/from work, socialising, etc. I cycle even though I have free parking. When the building was being totaly renovated c.25 years ago I was able to insist that changing rooms and showers were installed. Now, we have them on three floors. Also, secure bicycle storage with CCTV. The fourth drives simply as there is no PT and the roads are unlit and basiclly a rat run.

PT for me is very direct and I use it, if going out after work or something similar.

I know how lucky we are as regards commuting. Walking in the Phoenix Park the other evening about 6pm. Looking out towards the Spa Hotel, nothing but a red glare from all the vehicles backed up becasue some genius decided to put two sets of traffic light there and not a freeflow over forty years ago. Proof positive of no forward planning.

Over thirty years there was a train and 8.10 am and 8.30am and no problem getting a seat. Now, there's god knows how many trains and there all packed.

Do you wonder why? Could it possibly be that the population has increased?

scrabtom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732318#Comment_122732318

I think the point is that instead of investing money in widening roads we would invest it in making it so that public transport and active travel is a viable alternative for as many people in possible.

I think there are definitely road projects that do deserve investment, mostly in rural Ireland where people are just too spread out in many places for public transport to every properly displace the car.

I'm pretty dubious about whether this is one of the road projects that makes sense though.

Also you can't just take the induced demand concept and apply it to something else like schools. It is a concept related to traffic.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732318#Comment_122732318

We have spent decades building roads and not investing in PT. We have created a culture where people somehow think it is normal to drive long distances to get to and from work. It is now normal to want to be able to drive because in general it is the most attractive option. This isn't opinion - it's a fact (and I'm not against building roads - it's just that roads are the default option).
Now with the massive jump in car ownership over the last twenty years, tied in with the historic absence of any kind of meaningful funding towards public transport, the expectation is that one will drive. When roads get congested, our first thought is to widen it or to build another road, not to consider alternatives.
By making driving a more attractive option, you discourage the use of other options because you are endorsing and encouraging car based transport.

I know how lucky we are as regards commuting. Walking in the Phoenix Park the other evening about 6pm. Looking out towards the Spa Hotel, nothing but a red glare from all the vehicles backed up becasue some genius decided to put two sets of traffic light there and not a freeflow over forty years ago. Proof positive of no forward planning.

Even this makes the assumption that transport should have been car based which would have made the choice to drive even stronger. How much would it have cost way back when to implement this? What about the communities suddenly divided by this dual carriageway?

Again, active travel is nonsene to the long distance commuter.

Maybe that's why I didn't suggest it as an option for long distance travelling. However, for many people it is an option and one that they refuse to take.
Anecdotally, I know that many of the cars queueing in my town are people driving short distances and many of those people could walk or cycle but make the choice not to. It is because it is so easy to hop in the car and drive somewhere - it's convenient. And every time we widen a road, we create the perception that it will get even easier which helps construct that mindset.

As for our failure to plan - I think our local and national politicians in the sixties, seventies and eighties set that in motion. We have created a huge culture of urban sprawl and failed to invest in mass transit. Now people are left feeling that they have no option to travel by car. To this day, there is a sense of entitlement that one should be able to build their McMansion out in the countryside, away from services and households becoming completely dependant on owning multiple cars. Yes there has been a massive population jump.

Anyhow, as an example, this report was published by the Tory government in the UK who as we know would traditionally be opposed to any "green" measures… https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c0e5848e5274a0bf3cbe124/latest-evidence-on-induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review.pdf

More induced traffic is associated with road capacity increases where there is a high level of congestion and suppressed demand
The evidence they reviewed included before and after studies from the UK (including London) and Amsterdam, which showed that traffic level increases on new routes were not offset by corresponding reductions in traffic on equivalent unimproved routes.

…and there are loads more papers out there on this phenomenon (do do de do do!)

highdef

Active travel my hole! The public transport Network in Ireland is terrible, if you're not one of the lucky ones living in a city. If I were to travel from my location in Trim to my workplace in Inchicore now, it would take 41 minutes if I pay the tolls, or 49 minutes if I take a different route to avoid the tolls, which is what I tend to do. Using public transport, 112 minutes...... Nearly 3 times as long. Why would I put myself through that? This is traveling from a decent sized town not far from Dublin City, to the city itself. It's not going from a rural backwater to some other place half way across the country. It's less than 50km.... It's not exactly a big distance.

L1011

You're going to a suburban industrial estate; not the city centre and I'm pretty sure 41mins at peak times there is a fantasy; I couldn't get there in 41mins and I'm significantly closer!

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732655#Comment_122732655

You do remember when people were shouted down when the said that constructing the M3 would have a negative impact on upgrading the rail network out that direction? Remind us, whatever happened in the end?

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732658#Comment_122732658

I only travel off peak as I can usually time my drive to the minute..... Which is usually 46 minutes, driving south from Trim to kilcock and then m4 to palmerstown and through chapelizod. The office is a little under 4km from the m50 and a little over 4km from Dame Street. I've walked from the office to Dame Street in just over 45 minutes before so I'm definitely in the city area, just not the very centre. If I'm socializing after work, weather permitting, I'll usually walk into the city as the time taken is not that much greater than the "active travel" option.... Plus I get the health benefits of walking as well as knowing how long the walk will take.

highdef

I don't know, I'm not originally from Meath so you'll need to inform me. Curious to know now.

buffalo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732655#Comment_122732655

This project is to improve the public transport infrastructure. What point are you trying to make?

I told ya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732538#Comment_122732538

I fully agree with investing in PT. But, it's mostly talking about it, rather than actually doing it.

My point is, induced demand is just nonsense.

It applies to schools, hospitals, etc., all driven by a rapidly rising population and a total failure to plan for it.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733409#Comment_122733409

That it has a long long way to go for the vast majority of the population, for public transport to become in any way even slightly viable as an alternative to the car.

Almost two hours to travel less than 50km using public transport, from a town near Dublin to a destination close to the city centre of Dublin is shocking. Plus that's outside of peak traffic hours.

I told ya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732556#Comment_122732556

I have no problem with investement in PT. But the problem stems from the failure to plan properly, all the false economies, no joined up thinking… But this induced demand nonsense is people going about their daily business in a country with a rapidly rising population and investment not matching it.

Yes, an earlier generation of politicians clearly favoured cars over PT. This feeds into today's problems, inadaqute PT and an we've always used the car mindset.

I'm not saying that all transport should be car based. I was recounting the evidence of my own eyes and observing that the traffic lights have been there for over forty years. Going into the city is different to leaving it. Build a proper junction in Palmerstown, get rid of the lights, install variable speed cameras to control the flow and that would help reduce the sacred induced demand outbound.

As regards the Report for Uk/London/Amsterdam, any mention of rising populations?

scrabtom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733517#Comment_122733517

On the infrastructure side it's just slow unfortunately. Dart Plus, Metrolink and the BusConnects corridors seem like they'll all finally start construction in the near future though and that will be a huge improvement for Dublin at least. Outside Dublin, CACR and the BusConnects stuff should make a difference too.

The bus service around the country is undoubtedly getting better in real time, especially with the Connecting Ireland stuff.

Why do you think Induced Demand is nonsense? It is not a very intuitive concept but do you have an hard evidence, studies etc. as to why it is nonsense, or does it just sound like nonsense to you?

I told ya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733679#Comment_122733679

It's nonsense because it implies, "new/improved road, must drive on it"

It's people going about their daily business in a long, under invested country coupled with a rapidly rising population.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733799#Comment_122733799

You saying something is nonsense vs. the body of evidence that it isn't, is not a compelling argument.

I told ya

What body of evidence are you talking about?

My body of evidence is the evidence of my own eyes, the CSO, hospitals, schools, waiting lists, housing shortages…

What's your definition of ID?

Mine is, "new/improved road, must drive on it". That's the clear impression I get. Oh, don't add an extra lane, it'll only fill up. Nonsense.

Are you saying that eveyone stuck on the N4 in Palmserstown, c.3pm today, have somehow been induced to be there?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733898#Comment_122733898

Decades of peer-reviewed scientific research versus your hunch. I know which I'm going for.

Here, have a 2018 meta-review, done for a Government who would dearly have like for it to not exist. The line "Induced demand continues to occur and may be significant in some situations." should be of core consideration here.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c0e5848e5274a0bf3cbe124/latest-evidence-on-induced-travel-demand-an-evidence-review.pdf

scrabtom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733898#Comment_122733898

There is undoubtedly an increase in pressure on services when there is population growth.

That doesn't have anything to do with whether induced demand for traffic as a concept is real or not.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733799#Comment_122733799

It does not imply that - you have just interpreted it that way. I don't think anyone has said that someone will see a new road and suddenly get urges to get into a car 🙄

Induced demand is simply a term originally from economics and as it turns out applicable in so many areas. If you make the supply of something obtainable, then people will take it. If you increase the supply of somethinbg, generally the price becomes cheaper. As the price becomes cheaper, you're inducing more customers to buy the product.
It is like "build it and they will come".

With transport, it has been shown that if you make one mode of transport the easy choice for people then they will use it. Segregated and joined up cycle lanes encourage more and more people to cycle (look at the numbers cycling along the newly opened C2C cycle path). Look at the numbers using the luas lines daily. If you make driving an easier option (either by making it cheaper or by adding new infrastructure, then people will be more attracted to using that mode.

In short, if you make driving an easy option for people then don't be surprised if more people start to drive.

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122733898#Comment_122733898

It really is very simple. Building bigger roads to "solve" traffic issues does not solve traffic issues.

It has been proven time and time and time and time again - after a short space of time, traffic issues will be back (the same or worse), and then more calls will start for the next widening.

Rinse and repeat until you have 8-10 lanes of traffic in each direction on American freeways that are still choked with traffic.

I told ya

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122734164#Comment_122734164

My understaning of the word induce = succeed in persuading to do something.

So using this peer reviewed logic of induced demand, all the people stuck in their cars have somehow been persuaded to be there rather than trying to get to/from work, etc… A riduclious interpretation. Call it what it is, increased demand, due primarily from a rising population and rising numbers at work.

Driving to work in 1992 took 30/35 minutes. Today it would take 70/80 minutes. More than double using the same route and no change in speed limits.

Now, I wonder why that is? It's a bit like in the Irish RM, when Slipper tells the Major's wife, if you knew the answer to that, you'd know everything.

veryangryman

Extra lanes mean more capacity and more people getting in and out on time.

Alas we don't have room for 10 lanes but I'd rather be stuck in traffic on a 6 lane road than a 4 lane. The odds of said traffic decrease with each extra lane.

No silver bullet to traffic problems in big cities. But guess what? We don't just throw the towel in and freeze economic progress.

KrisW1001

The term is taken from Economics, particularly in relation to pricing. If you subsidise the cost of something, you induce additional demand for that thing.

From the user's side of transportation planning, the "price" of taking a journey is basically the time it takes to make it. If you live on a quiet rural road, your price to go 5km to the nearest shop is probably 5 minutes including parking. At that price, if you're short of something, you will usually just get in the car, go to the town and get it.

If your road is closer to capacity, or the town has a major road running thorough, your price to do the same trip will be higher, maybe 15 minutes. Now, you're less likely to hop in the car for minor errands: you'll wait until you need something else too, and only then will you go. But, say you're on a bus route too: the bus costs 10 minutes (a less direct route, but no cost of finding parking), so when there's a bus due, sometimes you'll take that rather than the car.

So, what happens if your busy road goes from 2 lanes to four? It actually costs €20 million for the stretch you used, but thanks to centralised spending of taxes, you don't pay that - all that new road capacity looks, to you, to be entirely free of charge. The increased supply of road space means that your 15-minute cost of travel drops to 7 minutes. That makes it more likely that you'll drop into town on a small errand. It's also faster than the bus at any time, so now you stop taking the bus, and drive for every trip.

A good result, right? Wrong.

The problem is that you are not the only person with a car. In reality, you and thousands of others see that initial reduction in trip cost, and as a result you will take more trips. Give it a year or so, and that additional demand for road capacity consumes the extra supply, and you're back to a 15-minute price of travel.

But in the meantime, low ridership has meant that the bus operator cancelled your local service, so you end up with an overall higher cost of travel: there is no longer the option of the 10 minute bus trip. (Cancellation of that bus also generates more car trips, as those bus users still need to travel)

That's bad enough, but let's revisit the bit that was free to you: €20 million to widen the stretch of road that you (and the others) used. From the government's point of view, they started with a utility that allowed travel from your location to the town at a cost of 15 minutes, or 10 by bus. After spending €20 million, within two years, they have... a utility that allows travel at a cost of 15 minutes.

... and people get angry about bike shelters.

I used to work in this area, I have seen the data. Population growth accounts for only a fraction of traffic growth. User behaviour always changes to consume the additional resource. For example, one bad effect when you add road capacity is "de-pooling", where members of a household decide to take separate cars for the same general journey rather than sharing: higher congestion, no additional people moved.

These effects happen within 5-10 years: no population doubles in that time.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122740270#Comment_122740270

Additional demand for road space is being induced if road space is increased while there is little or no improvement for the alternatives. People could theoretically get to/from work by public transport but there is limited demand due to the poor level of service on offer. Add another traffic lane and do nothing for public transport then more people will choose to drive. A bunch of 12 year olds would grasp the concept very quickly, not sure why it's so difficult here.

It's like the old Microsoft tactic of buying up and shutting down competitors, demand for Microsoft products was induced because alternative products were eliminated.

As you said, people are just trying to get to/from work, etc., for many the car will then sit for 9 hours, it isn't actually needed for working. If by car is more convenient than alternative methods, then people have been persuaded to be on the road because there is no other need for the car to sit outside their place of work. Provide fast and convenient public transport and some will switch to that. There is demand for it, most people would rather spend their commute reading their phone/book, not looking at the arse of another car.