Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

1…236237239241242…574

Comments

  • #7142
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731649#Comment_122731649

    The following is from an Irish Indo article of 7 hours back. A statement from one of his supporters, Howard Lutnick, the long-time CEO and chairman of global finance house Cantor Fitzgerald is a major backer of Mr Trump’s presidential campaign and serves as co-chair of the Trump-Vance transition team which is charged with making preparations for a new administration, including vetting thousands of potential officials who will replace current staff in the US federal government if Republicans win is a case in point. He has donated more than $10m (€9.25m) to the campaign. The Trump campaign has promised to return jobs to the US by imposing tariffs on imports and bolstering domestic manufacturing.

    Posting on X, Mr Lutnick wrote: “It’s nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense. We don’t make anything here anymore – even great American cars are made in Mexico. When we end this nonsense, America will be a truly great country again. You’ll be shocked!”

    Asked whether Cantor Fitzgerald could explain what Mr Lutnick meant by “Ireland of all places”, and by saying the balance of trade between the two historically friendly nations was at the expense of the US, the firm said it did not share his views.

    A spokesperson for Cantor Fitzgerald said: “Howard Lutnick made comments as a spokesperson for the Trump-Vance campaign. These are not the views of Cantor Fitzgerald. Over the past decade, we have proudly grown Cantor Fitzgerald’s presence in Ireland, and we remain committed to continuing our investment in both our people and our operations in the country.”

    The obvious thing now is to keep an eye on whether Mr Lutnick stays on as CEO & chair of Cantor Fitzgerald during the election period and in the longer term should Trump be elected.



  • #7143
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732111#Comment_122732111

    How do you figure that those with TDS would be able to make it easier on themselves by accepting that Trump will win on the night?



  • #7144
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,727 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732258#Comment_122732258

    Regardless of whether not not he stays on as CEO , it should be quite worrying for Cantor Fitzgerald clients that he appears to have an incredibly limited grasp of what "balance of trade" actually is and how it impacts a country.

    He seems to share Trumps school-boy level Zero-Sum view of the financial world - Not particularly useful as the leader of a Global Financial organisation.



  • #7145
    johnny_ultimate
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 30,559 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    IMO only a landslide win for either side will be embarassing for pollsters - every reliable model I've seen has been a complete toss-up for weeks now, with only minor shifts in both directions. While Harris does maintain a consistent national poll lead (which doesn't matter a jot when the electoral college exists), several major swing states are in <1% territory for either Trump or Harris, which is well within the margin of error.

    The likes of Nate Cohn and Nate Silver have been VERY cautious in their commentary on the polls (even as Trump has gained some ground in polls after Harris initially pulled ahead), and they've generally been good at poll reading (with all the necessary caveats). Unless private polls show something completely different or the momentum shifts further in the coming weeks, this is looking like the closest race we've seen anywhere in quite some time. At the moment, I for one won't be 'surprised' by either a Harris or Trump victory in a few weeks time.



  • #7146
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732141#Comment_122732141

    The new cover is to praise Obama and Biden. It's very simple, they hate whoever the current Dem candidate is. They then project about a derangement syndrome.



  • Advertisement
  • #7147
    Smee_Again
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭Smee_Again


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731336#Comment_122731336

    Probably not Trump himself given his history of bankrupting a casino but his supporters might.

    https://www.meidasplus.com/p/the-problem-with-polymarket



  • #7148
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,949 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732237#Comment_122732237

    It's very close currently , Harris was slightly ahead now seems Trump is or at least closing that lead

    Its almost impossible to call,

    I think Harris will win but not in a landslide



  • #7149
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,637 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732348#Comment_122732348

    He is a massively successful businessman and did a lot of good for his employee's families. If you recall 9/11, Cantor Fitzgerald had the offices in floors above where the plane hit Tower 1, and lost all their employees, including Lutnick's brother. Lutnick scrambled to keep the business open (they were mostly online and survived), and gave about $100k to each family. I remember him being interviewed on the 12th, he was in the news a lot. It was surprising Cantor survived.

    His Wikipedia is pretty interesting. His support of Trump is regrettable, as for his statements on Ireland, time will tell.



  • #7150
    EltonJohn69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,805 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    IMG_8656.jpeg

    The whole interview was an attempt by Fox News, to get a gotcha moment… the questions were loaded, that whole tangent about “do you think half of America is stupid for supporting Trump” was an obvious trap… but Harris flipped reversed it aikido style.



  • #7151
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732361#Comment_122732361

    There have been some internal Republican polls leaked recently, and they do not paint a picture of a winning team. Down - up and down the ballot and the likelihood of losing both the senate and the House. They are using it as a grift to draw in more money but it looks bleak when biased internal polls point to you having a bad day on Nov 5th.



  • Advertisement
  • #7152
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732237#Comment_122732237

    I hope so, but my money is on Trump squeaking in.



  • #7153
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,813 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732222#Comment_122732222

    We saw it with Biden: Trump looks like he'll clinch the vote.

    Were the polls saying this in 2020?

    Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/

    Given that most polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020, is it not at least as likely that they are erring this way again, and that Trump is comfortably ahead in reality, as they have swung too far in the opposite direction?



  • #7154
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732348#Comment_122732348

    I'd have thought the surplus was dairy and liquid goods but it seems to be mostly US Pharma Co products exported TO the US to the tune of €39 Billion.



  • #7155
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,420 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    At this stage, my instinct is a comfortable (in the end) win for Harris.

    Setting aside the polls, I see a lot of differences back to when Trump won, vocal critics of him from Republican circles, ex administration staff, his lacklustre rallies, incidents like the "eating the pets" and swaying on stage for 30 minutes. It all adds up.
    And I think Harris is a more appealing candidate than Hilary Clinton, and doesn't have the same 'baggage' she had.

    But I'm prepared to be wrong…

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #7156
    badabing106
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭badabing106


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732237#Comment_122732237

    You should make a bet on it

    If you bet 100 on Paddy Power, you will recieve 238 in return when Kamala wins



  • #7157
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,842 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122731045#Comment_122731045

    Sorry. My initial read was that the released tape was of a chat between Stormy and her lawyer, not that of a conversation between a person acting on behalf of You Know Who and her or her lawyer, which would make better sense.

    Edit: having just read the mention Rachel Meadows made on her show two days ago about the taped call, I'm more knowledgeable on what Stormy and her lawyer discussed about another request from a certain party that Stormy agree to and sign up to another non-disclosure agreement with him, weird though that proposition sounds like. The Meadows bit was responded to by Trumps team hinting the story involves a foreign hack of its data, presumably the pesky Aryans again.

    Post edited by aloyisious on


  • #7158
    Dingaan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Dingaan


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732128#Comment_122732128

    Relying on feelings won’t change reality. The data clearly show Trump still has a broad support base, with polling consistently placing him neck-and-neck in swing states. His numbers aren’t 'dwindling'—they're growing among key demographics like Latinos and working-class voters. Trust facts, not feelings.



  • #7159
    crusd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭crusd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732170#Comment_122732170

    Yeah, only dickheads find him remotely funny in my experiance



  • #7160
    duploelabs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,026 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732495#Comment_122732495

    As you've demonstrated before, by posting feelings with no citable back up and dodging when questioned, that your facts are not to be trusted



  • #7161
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,727 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732409#Comment_122732409

    From all that I have read , the big thing that current US polling model struggle with is "new" voters - Whether that's younger people eligible for the 1st time or older people that haven't voted in a long time now deciding to vote.

    All the polling models apply a fairly significant weight on whether the respondent voted in the last couple of election cycles - The "Likely voter" adjustment. They all ask "Did you vote in the last election?" and if you say yes , your data gets a bump in their weighting system.

    Lots of reporting talking about significant increases in voter registration over the last few months so it's really unclear if the polls are fairly and accurately accounting for these "new" voters in the results.

    Who knows though.

    Really interesting piece in the NYT today talking about why US Elections are always so close despite what appears to be clear daylight between the suitability of candidates.

    The writer makes the point that rather than find ways to reach out to the large swathes of Independents who might be open to changing their votes , both parties are leaning in to their respective "bases".

    I think the reason for all this is that political parties no longer serve the function they used to. In days gone by, parties were political organizations designed to win elections and gain power. Party leaders would expand their coalitions toward that end. Today, on the other hand, in an increasingly secular age, political parties are better seen as religious organizations that exist to provide believers with meaning, membership and moral sanctification. If that’s your purpose, of course you have to stick to the existing gospel. You have to focus your attention on affirming the creed of the current true believers. You get so buried within the walls of your own catechism, you can’t even imagine what it would be like to think outside it.

    It's a longish read , but worth the time in my view.



  • Advertisement
  • #7162
    Dingaan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Dingaan


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732512#Comment_122732512

    Such insight! You really shouldn’t make such sweeping generalisations. It’s not very nice.



  • #7163
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732139#Comment_122732139

    Sorry, what do you mean "If I think Trump is so bad"?

    I believe that he is a terrible person and a terrible candidate. However, his support doesn't stem from him being a good candidate.

    There is a massive double standard being applied where Trump engages in ridiculous and hilarious behavior and people give it a pass. While any slip or misstep by Harris is scrutinized and declared to be a fatal blow to her campaign. Yet, she's still doing alright.



  • #7164
    accensi0n
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732425#Comment_122732425

    As odyssey06 said, Trump is acting too crazy and too many Republicans have rowed in behind Harris for him to do any better than 2020, it's impossible.

    Screenshot_20241018-105554.png


  • #7165
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732535#Comment_122732535

    Yeah they try and fit for demographics. I.e. if they only get 50% white respondents in a 80% white state they will count them for more. Similar with ages so they will account a bit for the fact that younger people won't answer a call. They also try and skew towards likely voters.

    However it is hard to develop a model on who will actually vote for the first time. Sure many people say they will but many just won't on the day and it is hard to figure which ones will. If all the new voters break for one side or the other it could make a big difference even if they polls of those claiming they will vote are relatively even.

    In addition it will struggle with variations within demographics. So they can account for less young people answering the phone but do the young people who answer the phone and answer a survey vote differently to the general populace? That is rough to model.



  • #7166
    crusd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭crusd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732558#Comment_122732558

    Says the guy who thinks labelling men who choose to vote for a woman as cuckolds as being evidence of the height of wit 🤣



  • #7167
    Flaneur OBrien
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,438 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732404#Comment_122732404

    I definitely saw some polls saying that Trump would just clinch it in 2020.

    I think the polls of the Republican Party's nomination process have to be taken into account, as they are the most recent, and they massively over estimated his vote by sometimes as much as 20%.

    I just don't believe that pollsters know how to accurately gauge Trump and Vance.



  • #7168
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,949 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    If Trumps wins it'll mean both his terms came due wins against the only 2 ever women major-party nominee's ,

    Which is kind of sad given the character he is

    But in the flip side if Harris wins the first ever women President will have beaten him, Which will give him an extra kick in the teeth .



  • #7169
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,622 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732495#Comment_122732495

    I remember being told the same spiel in 2020.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #7170
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,706 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732128#Comment_122732128

    While is definitely weird to see Trump supporters constantly whinging about nonsense like "TDS", don't be under any illusion that Trump hasn't a shot at getting into the White House. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he did myself.

    Never underestimate America's ability to do really stupid and self damaging things.



  • Advertisement
  • #7171
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,622 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122732702#Comment_122732702

    I mean, one poster spent almost a decade trying to scare people into thinking that Ireland would be kicked out of the EU and that we should become a British vassal state. I'd be surprised if they weren't doing the TDS thing.

    He can win. American elections are essentially weighted coin flips thanks to their undemocratic nature. I just think it's unlikely and the last time I checked FiveThirtyEight, Harris had a small lead.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



Advertisement