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Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,805 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    I wonder if there will be a digital release before the election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    The consensus is very much that high turnout = a Democrat advantage.

    So the more that they can generate voter enthusiasm, execute their GOTV strategies and 'bank' these early votes, the better it is for Harris.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Exactly my point. He doesn't need to be in the WH to exert that level of influence over the GOP caucus.

    He did the same thing with the bipartisan border security bill.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,613 ✭✭✭✭MisterAnarchy


    Trump now 13/18, Harris 7/5

    Whatever Trump is doing its working.



  • Posts: 6,597 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    People are watching the polls, which are grossly underestimating both the women's vote and the youth vote. It's baked into the algorithms to discount these historically low voter turnout categories - but if you actually look at who is voting they are to the fore. They have also overcompensated for their under representation of Trump supporters in 2016.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Again - Not convinced that betting odds are any kind of accurate measure here.

    The actual real world data is telling a somewhat different story.

    Huge surge in early voting and also a surge in women voting - Neither are typically good things for Republican candidates.

    It's going to be very close in those swing States without doubt and a few hundred thousand votes will be the ultimate difference one way or the other.

    Harris or Trump could win each of those states by 5k, 10k , 15k votes leading to a blowout victory in EC votes , but in terms of actual votes cast it could be very close indeed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,805 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    if Trump looses the election his reign as King of the Republican Party is over…. He won’t be deciding policy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,805 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    Trump media stock appears to have collapsed after his bizarre actions this week… so not everything is working



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I did make a comment that the most interesting thing to watch post-election will be how the losing party responds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,613 ✭✭✭✭MisterAnarchy


    Donald Trump is ostensibly slated to take another shot at Kamala Harris as he reportedly heads to the multi-billion dollar conglomerate McDonald's in Pennsylvania this coming weekend to “work the fry cooker".

    Trump has claimed that his half-hour stint would still be "longer and harder" than his opponent has ever worked at McDonald’s.

    Trump's pledge is a direct mockery of Harris' claims that she "did the fries" as a student.

    Juvenile but funny.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It is more what Harris is doing. The stilted interviews, no one knowing what she really believes, the lack of genuine warmth.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    That's pretty pathetic to be honest.

    What exactly is he trying to demonstrate here?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Like when McConnel said making election day a federal holiday would be a 'naked power grab' and called it the Democrat Protection Act. Republicans are keenly aware that their platform is unpopular in the electorate and have sought tirelessly to subdivide, gerrymander and suppress votes to remain in power. Even last night Ted Cruz was freaking out that Colin Allred, if elected, will help vote to give DC and Puerto Rico representation in Congress, acknowledging that these are democratic-leaning areas, which would ensure that the GOP remains a minority party for the forseeable future - until at least it can go figure out how to not be a bunch of handsmaid-tale style despots and actually formulate a platform that is palatable to the American people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭scottser


    It's a scam to keep DJT stock price higher than it should be. It's pure optics is all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,805 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    I would say not well at all.

    I myself have champagne ready for a Harris win… but I’m not sure what to drink for a Trump win….mostly likely whiskey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,065 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    She is a weak candidate. She still might win but it is despite her own efforts

    Same as Trump would have won last time if he learnt when to shut up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I would not assume that MAGA will just disappear, in fact I am certain it would not even if Trump retired from political life.

    I think a lot would hinge on the margin of defeat.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 30,560 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    It is a highly relvant topic for the election itself, though. The problem is, Harris' (completely indefensible IMO) Israel policy is also alienating notable chunks of their own voter base. Arab / Muslim Americans, youth voters and more left wing voters among them. Could you really blame a Palestinian-American for not voting for Harris given the ongoing carnage (and it certainly doesn't mean they're voting for Trump either)? You could of course point out that some of these groupings are proportionally small, but in an election this tight, small groups matter enormously - losing the Arab-American vote in some key swing states could be a major decider in a close race. 'But she's not Trump' only goes so far when you see the horrific photos emerging from Gaza every single night.

    It's a complex issue, no doubt, and yes a harder line on Israel would likely lose some other voters. But polls have pretty consistently shown a majority of Americans are unhappy with the US' unwavering support for the genocide in Gaza. While it's maybe pie in the sky to wish for a complete reversal of current US foreign policy, there was an opportunity for Harris to at the very least draw more redlines than Biden has. She's done nothing of the sort. Gaza isn't a minor policy disagreement for a lot of people - it's a horrifying human catastrophe, and the two main people on the ballot are actively supporting it and cheering it on. Trump would be worse, yes, but Harris is still an utter disaster. We're talking ethnic cleansing, not taxation disputes here.

    If Harris loses - a very, very real possibility - the Democrat party will have a lot of reckoning to do with how they've continued to alienate significant parts of their existing voter base, and how they completely skipped over any kind of more democratic selection process once Biden dropped out and how they failed to offer any kind of inspiring alternative policy agenda. But given lot of the lessons from 2016 have not been learned, alas, I'm not confident they have it in them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭ronjo


    I think the one thing that most can agree on is that pretty much any other Republican candidate would be way ahead in the polls.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    It's a good point. The US as a whole has shifted right, but Trump has a very clear ceiling on his support.

    I think <insert generic Republican with good hair> would win this easily.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    This strikes me as a bad idea.

    Screenshot 2024-10-16 144237.png


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    No disagreement that the handling of the situation has been pretty awful.

    But , If the desire from casting your vote is to have a shot at making things better , which option genuinely gives you that possibility?

    Whilst it is unquestionably a case of picking a "least worst" option on this issue, I think that clearly a Democrat administration is likely to be more open to compromise and pushing for cease-fires and a 2 State solution , albeit framed within the overarching US support for Israel. A Trump administration would make no such efforts.

    If you don't vote or indeed vote 3rd party (Jill Stein etc.) then that is in effect a vote for Trump as low votes cast benefits him more than Harris.

    Not minimising that it's a sh!tty choice to make , but there doesn't appear to me to be much of an actual choice.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    The timing of the collapse of the stock price yesterday coincided with his disastrous interview with Bloomberg EIC.

    https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-rips-moderator-when-challenged-on-wall-street-journal-slamming-economic-policies-youve-been-wrong-all-your-life/

    Micklethwait tried to move back to talking about debt, “President Trump– the markets are looking at the fact you are making all these promises. Latest one was car loans. You’re flooding the thing with giving giveaways. But I was also I was actually quite kind to you. I used 7 trillion. The upper estimate is 15 trillion. People like the Wall Street Journal, which is hardly a communist organization, they have criticized you on this as well. You are running up enormous debt.”

    “What is [sic] The Wall Street Journal know? I’m meeting with them tomorrow. What is The Wall Street Journal that they’ve been wrong about everything. So have you, by the way,” Trump shot back.

    “You’ve been wrong,” Trump added as the crowd roared.

    “You’re trying to turn this. You’re trying to turn–” hit back Micklethwait.

    “You’ve been wrong,” Trump repeated.

    “I know you’re trying, you’re trying to turn this into debate. There are business people. There are business people–” Micklethwait replied.

    “You’re wrong. You’ve been wrong. You’ve been wrong all your life on this stuff. You know, let me tell you about currency. You kind of you know, you go and jump in a lot of a lot of different subjects,” Trump added.

    Trump was also asked about whether google should be broken up, and he gave a reply that had absolutely nothing to do with economics or google, but about Virginia and a DOJ lawsuit to prevent the state from purging the voter rolls within 90 days of a general election:

    Micklethwait: “The U.S. Justice Department is thinking about breaking up Alphabet, as Google likes to be known now. Should Google be broken up?”

    Trump: "I just haven’t gotten over something that the Justice Department did yesterday where Virginia cleaned up its voter rolls and got rid of thousands and thousands of bad votes [sic]. And the Justice Department sued them, that they should be allowed to put those bad votes [sic] and illegal votes [sic] back in and let the people vote. So, I haven’t gotten– I haven’t gotten over that. A lot of people have seen that and I can’t believe it."

    Micklethwait: But the question is about Google, President. Trump.

    The stock peaked yesterday at the start of the interview and only went down from there. As articles began to really go viral about how disastrous it was, around 2 PM (MediaITE published theres at 1:56 PM), the stock really fell off the cliff, and triggered automatic pauses in trading.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    The main stock indices are up over 20% this year.

    Waaaaay more than under Trump. The Dems should be selling this a lot - all middle class American 401(k)s will be looking very healthy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,816 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Best not post that on twitter/x unless you want to be labeled a 'pedo guy'…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,558 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    "…and now appears ready to bet on himself and his communication skills."

    The f*ck's he going to do? Show the crowds memes while whispering "Interesting" into the mic?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    I mean if that's your conclusion let nothing stop you from maxing out the credit cards and betting it all on red.

    (No. wait. stop. come back.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,816 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Bit of this and they'll be like putty in his hand

    Untitled Image


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    It's weird we used to see a lot of posts 4+ years ago of users hyperfixated on the alleged performance of their 401(k)s under Trump now not a peep under Biden.



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