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Israel are going to start WWIII

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,003 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    You can be fairly sure the israelis don't have an asset like that, because if they did they wouldn't be trying to burn him in the media. They'd be doing everything in their power to distance themselves from him rather than throw away a key asset right before they seek to start a war with Iran.

    Much more likely they're nervous that they aren't able to track the location of a senior Iranian commander and are wondering what he is up to. A few days prior they were claiming they had killed him. Now he is their man in Tehran all along. The only common theme is they hope to force him to make a public appearance to confirm his location/activity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I am not so sure. If I was the Iranians I would be asking who wasn't in the room when these strikes that wiped out the leadership of Hezbollah took place.

    It seems Qanni pulled out of at least one meeting at the last minute. The talk about killing him could be a Mossad story to try and attempt to say he wasn't their man.

    Even if Qanni isnt a Mossad Spy , it's clear someone high up in the Iranian regime is compromised because all the Hezbollah senior leadership has been wiped out. A select few knew of Nasrallah movements , so anyone in Hezbollah who likely knew has been eliminated , so that leaves suspicion falling on the Iranians. The death of Haniyeh in Iran, in a supposedly well guarded Iranian facility, only raises the likelihood that Mossad have a mole high up the Iranian regime



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,003 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    I don't agree. First and foremost, to the extent Hezbollah was compromised, it is Hezbollah who needs to be asking questions about their own internal security. Whatever source the israelis had/had, it (and I use the term deliberately) seems to have good info on senior Hezbollah leaders. There is no evidence it has good info on Iran - the israelis have been shocked by the Iranian missile strike, for example.

    Secondly, the pager incident demonstrates the israelis were able to penetrate Hezbollahs communication network. We know that for a fact, because they supplied them. Sure, they ultimately exploded them, but its clear they were listening for years and probably tracking the movements of the people holding the pagers. I think its much more likely they israelis were able to map out the senior leaders and their habits/locations though breaching Hezbollahs comms.

    But ultimately, its makes zero sense for israel to burn a genuine spy in the media. If Qanni was an israeli asset it makes no sense for israel to claim he is an israeli spy. None. Zero. It defeats the purpose of having a spy if you tell everyone he is a spy.

    I think the probability is much higher that this is just an israeli psychological operation to try maximise the damage from their pentration of Hezbollah's internal security by provoking infighting and a hunt for a spy that might not even exist. And to distract from the reality that even having decapitated the entire senior leadership of Hezbollah, even with total air supremacy, and even with a superpower militarily backing them their conscript army is so poorly trained and motivated that it cant advance against Hezbollah on the ground. Frankly, the performance of the idf has been embarrassing from a purely objective stance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It could be an Isrseli psych op to sow further paranoia within the Iranian regime, however I don't think it is.

    If Hezbollah was compromised then there should be someone fairly high up in Hezbollah still alive, but the fact is their senior leadership are all dead. We also have to bear in mind Nasrallah's whereabouts were only known to select a few in Hezbollah and the Iranian leadership. This is why he managed to avoid assassination for the guts of 32 years.

    Signal intelligence doesn't explain how the Israelis knew where he was at that the precise time of the attack. Someone passed on the information.

    The killing of Haniyeh in a secure compound in Iran suggests the leak is coming from the Iranians not from within Hezbollah. Also Mossad might be happy to burn their spy if they feel he was about to be exposed, he therefore has outlived his usefulness. The fact they were taken by surprise by the Iranian missile strike could be because Qanni was already under suspicion In the days before the strike.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,415 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Fight back? Didn't Israel attack Iran first, but bombing the Iranian embassy?

    But anyway, what juicy targets are you expecting? I know the US may neuter your expectations. But realistically with oil and nuclear targets off the table (I could be wrong), what do you expect will be hit? Last time Israel destroyed a radar from an S300 system.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Frank Grimes


    No doubt the 'I'm not racist, but' lot will be excusing this because, something something, HAMAS.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,030 ✭✭✭jackboy


    There must be loads of military sites to hit. Surely missile storage and production sites would be high priority. Without missiles the Iranians have nothing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,795 ✭✭✭threeball


    With Israels track record they'll just flatten a few primary schools and claim there were space lasers hidden underneath.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 457 ✭✭john why


    Not your people and that's a fact.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,272 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Hit all weapons manufacturing, and the drone factories, big help to Ukraine there.

    Hit key figures, hit everything to do with the IRGC.

    Close the banks via cyber attack again, all this time though.

    The nuclear facilities should be destroyed as well. Iran with nukes is a global nightmare.

    After that, electricity plants, ports, key factories.

    The list is not short



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,079 ✭✭✭uptherebels


    What ducking and diving? I already did. You responded to the answer. You know the one you didn't like, trying to deflect by calling it divisive 🙄So enough of the feigned ignorance.

    You might not like your history. But as I already said. That's your problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,441 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    all accounts are that israel will hit iranian oil and military shortly .. all right before a very close US election

    from latest reports hamas was planning 7th oct with iran and Hezbollah for years before they struck



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,933 ✭✭✭✭riffmongous




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Israel doesn't have the ability to destroy their nuclear facilities on their own. Also I am sensing a bit of De Ja Vu here. What evidence do you have that Iran is actually building a nuke. If you have sensitive information that you can't share publicily please feel free to PM it. One more thing do you believe decrees issued by the Ayatollah carry weight. I ask because didn't the Ayatollah declare publicily that possessing a nuke was unislamic. Although from Iran's perspective the last nine months should have made them realise that acquiring a nuke would provide a deterrence. I agree Iran having that deterrence would be a nightmare for the current rules of the games whereby Israel has lost its hegemony in the region. Would the Iranians with a nuke be actually silly enough to use one knowing it would invite their own destruction in return? Again I am not convinced because they seem fond of self preservation despite the rhetoric about glorious martyrdom.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,272 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Israel is seizing the land on which the headquarters of UNRWA is located in occupied Jerusalem and turning it into a settlement outpost.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What reports are these? According to Dief and others in Hamas the operation was kept secret from Hezbollah and Iran for fear of the Israelis finding out. With what has gone on in Lebanon and Iran that seemed a wise strategy if true. Israeli intelligence clearly did a great job in both Iran and Lebanon , but failed miserably in Gaza.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,415 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    He actually had the cheek to mention Hezbollah using them as human shields despite the fact the IDF used Irish peacekeepers as human shields.

    I've a feeling the IDF will end up killing some peacekeepers and force the UN to withdraw their troops out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    The notoriously antisemitic Red Cross have deservedly got a bloody nose from the chosen people.

    The cheek of them, trying to administer life saving aid to civilians whom the chosen ones had expended good money (well US money) on trying to blow them into smithereens

    Will the antisemitism never end????



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,698 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    One more thing do you believe decrees issued by the Ayatollah carry weight. I ask because didn't the Ayatollah declare publicily that possessing a nuke was unislamic. Although from Iran's perspective the last nine months should have made them realise that acquiring a nuke would provide a deterrence. 

    So are you suggesting that the Islamic regime of Iran would do something they explicitly say is unislamic just because it was useful to them??

    But did he actually issue a decree? I don't remember anything so definitive, more an opinion.

    And given that Pakistan has carried out nuclear tests, it's obviously not an uncontested opinion either.

    So I wouldn't want to be counting on that as evidence that they aren't looking to build a nuclear weapon.

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,616 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes,he issued an oral fatwa 20 years ago stating such weapons are unislamic. I would imagine these decrees are not delivered lightly; that they carry weight. I agree I wouldn't be counting on that alone as evidence that they are not. I haven't seen convincing evidence that they are after a nuke, though. It all has the whiff of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction about it- a lot of conjecture and conditionals



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    Secret Documents Show Hamas Tried to Persuade Iran to Join Its Oct. 7 Attack

    looks like hamas attack last year was rushed as they feared israel were installing more advanced air defences

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/world/middleeast/hamas-israel-war.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Wow, isn't that so fortunately convenient that the zionists were able to find the minutes of those meetings in the week they were trying to shore up support for an attack on Iran coupled with their ongoing murdering in Lebanon?

    Luckily the zionists never lie about things

    Post edited by Donald Trump on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,698 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    It's not clear that that fatwa ever happened though:

    And in any case, they are now openly threatening to do so - so if Khamenei ever did say that, then Allah must have changed his mind about nuclear weapons since then:

    Either way, the past alleged fatwa is now completely irrelevant.

    Also this:

     I agree I wouldn't be counting on that alone as evidence that they are not.

    I mean, that was your original point - that such a fatwa is good evidence that they are not doing so.

    One more thing do you believe decrees issued by the Ayatollah carry weight. I ask because didn't the Ayatollah declare publicily that possessing a nuke was unislamic.

    Or have you now changed your mind?

    ”I enjoy cigars, whisky and facing down totalitarians, so am I really Winston Churchill?” (JK Rowling)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,329 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Maybe not a good idea for the US to be rushing even more air defence into Israel. May embolden the Israeli govt. into a bigger and bolder attack on Iran.

    They will take what they can get as regards US military support and see that as their due, while (as we have seen for a year now) they keep their own counsel and completely ignore this US admin's suggestions and make fools of them in public.

    This speed and decisiveness is sad in context of the Ukraine war too, where after 2 years or so US/NATO won't countenance air defence systems stationed near Ukraine's western/southern borders covering some of Ukraine's cities from attack by Russian drones and missiles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    israel are not looking to drum up support simply respond to irans 180 ballistic missiles fired at them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,441 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,500 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Scandalous doesn't cover it. It is a gross and deliberate violation of international law, an offence against the global community, a reckless endangerment and purposeful insult against the UN, the UNIFIL mandate, human rights and the 10,000 personnel of 34 countries, just trying to keep civilians safe.

    Benjamin Netanyahu has made Israel into a fascist aggressor, and if the US won't stop him, its up to the armed forces of European and other western democracies to protect the UN mandate and civilian populaces in all of the foreign territories than Israel has now invaded and laid waste to.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,066 ✭✭✭✭Danzy




This discussion has been closed.
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