Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

To quote the lad from Dads Army 'don't panic! don't panic!'

The Dems have a huge warchest of $$$. Let's see how they deploy it. Let's also remember that no-one, but no-one really knows what is going on beneath the tectonic plates of the local states.

Obama (and possibly more importantly, Michelle) are being deployed over the swing states from today. The big guns are out.

On Tuesday, the experts (highly qualified scientifically trained people using the latest technology to do the jobs they are hired to do) said that the storm was close to the maximum possible that can be physically created within the environment on planet earth.

Do you think they were wrong? Do you think their views influenced Biden's statement? Do you think he was wrong to make that statement on this basis?

Disagree. A lot of NYers (including myself) have a long-term deepseated dislike of James Dolan, owner of MSG, and hopefully Convicted Felon Trump stiffs him big time for this rally.

Sadly I can think of family members who would attend.

Michael Moore thinks Harris is going to win. He has some cred here, predicting Trump's victory in 2016.

https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/do-the-math-trump-is-toast

Possibly because she is not a politician. 😀

I agree.

I find it a little bit bizarre that Trump fans seem to have an issue with Walz making tampons readily available for students. Like that's just the norm in Ireland. Does menstruation really scare ye that much?

I think MAGA is pretty finite, but the GOP is not, and as we've seen even with so many of the GOP politicians themselves (including Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney, when Trump was President), they'll wade in behind Trump so long as their overall ideals are being met. Same with voters; a lot of the population will still vote for Trump as much as they may hate the whole MAGA side of things, so long as the general Republican ideals are met. The party of Christian values and the Law & Order party… and Trump still ends up being their nominee with everything we all know about him.

And so; swing states. States where the votes and margins will always be close, and regardless of what Harris or Trump do in the next month (again, barring something completely wild) they will likely remain close. But Biden won the likes of Pennsylvania in 2020. If Harris was to now try distance herself from Biden, could risk alienating some of those voters. But while you (and all of us) may have hoped for a steady continuous rise until polling day once Harris replaced Biden as nominee, it was always likely to flatten back to uncomfortably close. Again though, look at where the polls were when Biden was the nominee to now, and it can't be denied that Harris herself has put the work in to get the polls back up to this point. The actual votes on election day could show up huge unforeseen margins between them as polls and betting odds can only show so much, but swing states are swing states for that very reason.

Tim Walz was also on 60 minutes and done numerous interviews this week, including a viral rally that was co-streamed on Twitch to reach younger voters. Idk where people got the idea he was being hidden, aside from personal ignorances.

Good post.

I think it will come down to a very old-fashioned thing; mobilization of your vote. Do whatever you have to do but energize your voters to get off their ass and get down to the polling station (or, increasingly, the drop box).

Trump fans just tell lies….. over and over and over and over…..

The betting odds and polls are agreeing, it's a coin flip, it wont be won by attacking the other candidate unless something extraordinary comes out, it will be won by mobilizing the vote in the key states.

Unless the polls are wrong…. and the pollsters whether it will be like the last 4 elections, they didnt capture the obama vote in 2008 and 12 or the trump vote in 16 and 20

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html

From the most recent NYT poll info-

The margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.4 points for the national poll and about plus or minus five points for each state poll. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When the difference between two values is computed, such as a candidate’s lead in a race, the margin of error is twice as large.

All the polls have those sort of margin of error, 3-4% either way takes all those swing states, i heard nate silver say this could be a landslide either way.

Absolutely terrifying