Harris Vs Trump 2024 US Presidential election - read the warning in the OP posted 18/09/24

Making a return on the "investment" would leave a return trail to the source where-ever, presuming the investor did actually want a return.

Poking the neighbouring country to Iraq by a nation which is on good terms with the father-in-law. Politics at a nation-state level which Trump think's he is capable of, exampling Russia & Ukraine. All one needs is plausible deniability.

Edit: I don't go in for conspiracy rubbish. Life has taught me to accept that we humans can do the worst of things for the most strange of reasons or thoughts, weird though they be.

Nothing except… tumbleweed

So a lot of the electoral college polls seem to favour Harris by a bigger margin than I was expecting

Nate Silver and 538 both have her with a 56% chance of winning

While I get that that's hardly enough to seal the deal, it seems a far cry from the toss up that many pollsters have been speaking about

I get that there's some states where you win and it almost guarantees the election for you (Pennsylvania) but I don't really see where this confidence is coming from. After all Harris seems to have a knife edge majority in some key states

Also, I hope the US adopts the popular vote for elections so we aren't subjected to this constant noise of pollsters talking about "flipping Georgia" or whatever

EDIT: 538 has upped her to a 59% chance

In terms of that 538 estimate, it's worth remembering that still is very close to a coin flip. But I'm very much so veering towards optimism at this point.

Here you go, I made a post about it earlier in the thread:

https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/read-the-jd-vance-dossier

Loads of stuff in there known and unknown, direct and causal, eg.

All the laundry things he's said negative of Trump

His old law firm Sidley Austin lobbied on behalf of Purdie Pharma (Oxycontin), as well as "multiple CCP affiliated companies" like Alibaba and the Kaisa Group (during his tenure at the firm) - Vance would also in 2019 go on to cite the opioid crisis as a reason for more government intervention in the economy, defying conservative principles.

Vance: “Sometimes The Corporate Interests Who Are Responding To MarketIncentives, Who Are Acting Just As You Might Expect A Company To Act, IsActively Going To Harm The American Social Fabric.” (Fox News’ “Tucker CarlsonTonight,” 1/9/19)

Vance: “The Market Is Not A Platonic Deity, Floating In The Sky And ImposingGoodnes And Prosperity From On High. It Is The Creation Of Our Choices, OurLaws, And Our Democratic Process.” (JD Vance, “The Health Of Nations,” Pittsburgh PostGazette, 1/8/19)

Vance: “If A Company Is Pushing Opioids Into A Community In A Way That'sDestroying Families, Whose Side Are We Going To Take? Are We Going To TakeThe Side Of The Corporate Interest Or Are We Going To Take The Side OfAmerican Families?” (Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” 1/9/19)

His $1.4M home is owned through a shell company.

Vance ran a startup called Circuit Therapeutics, a biotech company that was neuroscience focused and was awarded millions by DARPA for "neuromodulation treatments" (and these guys are gonna dismantle the "deep state?" ROFL)

Vance also was a partner at Mithril which was investigated by the FBI over financial misconduct.

In 2016 Vance endorsed Democratic economic policies vs. Republican ones:

“While Vance conceded that whiteworking-class voters could 'benefit' from some Democratic economic policies versus those fromtheir Republican counterparts, there's a reason why so many in that voting bloc are hesitant toswitch to the Democratic ticket.' Even though they recognize that they need some help, they'revery proud in some ways and they're not going to be as attracted to a political candidate or apolitical party that's fundamentally offering them free money or handouts in some way oranother,' he said.” (Rahel Gebreyes, “Author J.D. Vance Explains Why Rural, White Communities SupportTrump,” The Huffington Post, 8/16/16)

(…and then Trump handed out over $3000 per person stimulus cheques with his name all over them, attached to self-aggrandizing letters.)

In 2017 Vance alluded he believed the economy was doing well because of Obama's policies, not Trump's; he also threw water on Trump's jobs numbers;

In 2019 Vance argued against free market capitalism with Tucker Carlson

Page after page of Vance's policies overlapping with Democratic economic policies: increasing capital gains tax, regulating corporations, criticizing the bush tax cuts, criticizing his party for pushing more tax cuts, opposition to supply-side tax cuts, leaving the Paris agreement,

Vance voted against expanding VA benefits

Pro union positions

Exhaustive criticism of repealing and replacement Obamacare

etc. etc. etc.

Literally hundreds of pages of this stuff. There might be some really good nuggies in here.

Nothing about fcuking couches though.

I'm not clear why he went with Vance to be perfectly honest, if this is really the vetting they did on him. His other choices must have been disastrous.

Neither have I -so I can't say.

I am wondering what actual fallout there has been(as I wrote in that post you quoted)

Yeah I just don't really get how it went up 3% in a couple of days when the polling data is still close to 50/50

I know there's a time element as well, like when the economy is doing well past a certain date then it looks better for the incumbent

I do agree a 59% chance is hardly a sure thing. While Nate Silver was saying that even a conservative gambler might be tempted to go all in on those odds, I would argue you'd want more certainty when talking about who gets to be the most powerful person in the world

Still, I'm a bit more optimistic as well than last week

The rumour that seems to go around is that Peter Thiel made Trump pick Vance

While Trump is extremely easy to manipulate, I don't see him taking orders so obviously though

I reckon it was the same logic that led him to select Mike Pence, he picked someone who is even more despised by republicans who will never be a threat to him

Trump knows that Vance's only chance for advancement is through him and that's enough to ensure Vance will remain loyal

Trump's mistake with Pence was to pick someone who has principles, even if they are despicable (I can't believe I just said something almost positive about Mike Pence). So he went with a complete charlatan who will do or say anything he's told if he thinks he'll get a reward

For example, if Vance had been VP on Jan 6th 2021 do you see him certifying the election results? Because I could absolutely see him refusing because his master told him to and we'd have a very different and worse America today

I reckon also its because Vance has no floor to how low he will stoop in interviews.

The likes of MTG would have been the same but I dont think Haley or Bergum would stoop QUITE so low.

This was a pre-requisite I am sure too.

Trump is running out of new tricks to appeal to people:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-gives-stunning-reason-to-dump-education-dept-then-goes-off-on-side-rant-about-black-voters/

The TLDR is a barely coherent word salad full of ‘memberberries about the time he won in 2016 with his “what the hell do you have to lose” sales pitch?

And I said, “Vote for me. What the hell do you have to lose?”.

Remember that? “What the hell do you have to lose?”.

And my people didn’t like it. They said backstage “Oh sir, that was not nice.”.

I said, it is. Anyway, I didn’t know. I figured maybe I shouldn’t have said it.

The following day, I went up 12 points. Right? 12 points. And today we’re the highest we’ve ever been with the African American population.

As I’ve said before on the thread, that appeal worked great for him in 2016, but it has a crippling, fatal flaw for him to be used anytime thereafter: voters by and large have already learned exactly what they have to lose with Trump. Especially Black voters whom he was ranting about here: under Trump white supremacy underwent a renaissance of sorts, klansmen took off their hoods and paraded openly in the streets with no fear of reprisals, many seen getting fistbumps with cops etc.; heinous murders some would describe as lynching began to unfold once again in America, like the murder of Ahmaud Arbery etc., Trumps economic policies devastated those in poverty while companies bestowed upon themselves trillions in stock buybacks, and Trump even reportedly let Covid run wild in part because it was more deadly to Blacks by the numbers than to whites. His comments about a ‘purge’ and enabling police to ratchet up violence further than ever before, also preludes a term in office that would be more lethal than what came before, especially for minorities.

I probably shouldn’t interrupt him while he’s making a mistake, wasting precious time on these desperate efforts to repeat what made his campaign work through the magic of being a largely unproven political outsider in 2016, with just 5 weeks left in the campaign, but I cannot help but make a note because later I feel I will be saying ‘told you so,’ here.

I don't remember that remark being addressed to the African-American population.I thought at the time it was to the Rust Belt and its working class in general .

I could have been wrong (and I thought they would see through him straight away but he seemed to have got away with a "Maggie Thatcher")

So, a "Yes" or "No" question. No "Maybe" or "It depends" or "Welllllll"

Regardless of who you support or like, will posters accept the results of the election?

For me: Yes.

I may or may not LIKE the result but Yes, I will accept it.

I assume I can guess who will NOT be able to answer with a "Yes" or "No"

Anyone who would vote for him wouldn't care about those things.

Vance is immaterial to how they think of trump

"big guy, tears in his eyes"